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Old 02-08-2021, 01:45 PM   #2651
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222 View Post
Now that the SB is in the books, it's time to start thinking about next season. Plus, it made me sad that this thread hasn't had any posts for a month.

I'm very excited to see what happens in FA and with the draft.

My way too early top 20 PPR without any explanation is below.

CMC
Cook
Kamara
Henry
Barkley
Ekeler
Adams
Reek
JT
Chubb
Kelce
A. Jones
Hopkins
Diggs
Mixon
Swift
Akers
Metcalf
Ridley
JRob

RB seems a bit deeper heading into the season, so I think some of the receivers may inch up in the rankings. But both positions are pretty deep.
Agree, WR seems like it has gotten incredibly deep over the last couple years. Guys just put up big numbers over the course of a season now. You got players like Robby Anderson putting up 1100 yards with backup QBs for half the season. Justin Jefferson as a rookie had 1400/7 and isn't even being discussed in the first two rounds.

So RE: my above post, maybe it just makes sense to nab Kelce at the turn.

I like your above rankings. I probably like fading Kamara this year now though. Reduced rushing volume and you could see how little they used him in the passing game without Brees.

Is Akers this years Drake? Late season bloom leads to high draft and a bust. Probably not, Stafford won't eat into his value nearly as much as Kyler did with Drake.
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Old 02-08-2021, 01:47 PM   #2652
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

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I think he has 2-4 more seasons at current production level. The only way he ends up with a bad year is an injury, and he's been incredibly durable so far.

If I have a top 5 pick, I'll probably just accept not getting Kelce, but I do plan to have him in more spots than I did last year which was only 1 lol.
I just hate buying it a year late. Sharps had a lot of Kelce this year and it paid off. Now I want to double down especially and not take him, but there is obviously way larger than 0% chance that it still burns me another year or two.

KC could change a bit in the next year or two, with Mahomes cap hit becoming real now.
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Old 02-08-2021, 01:57 PM   #2653
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

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I just hate buying it a year late. Sharps had a lot of Kelce this year and it paid off. Now I want to double down especially and not take him, but there is obviously way larger than 0% chance that it still burns me another year or two.

KC could change a bit in the next year or two, with Mahomes cap hit becoming real now.
I'd say Kelce's pedigree as the undisputed top TE will be unchanged for 2021. The only concern could be some TD regression as he had the most of his career at 11 this year. He only had 5 in 2019. He had 10 in 2018.

But he's averaged 102 catches and 1,327 yards the last 3 seasons.

I will not be shy about taking him late first/early second, but again, probably not going to reach in the top 5 especially in a 12 man league.
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Old 02-08-2021, 02:01 PM   #2654
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

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Agree, WR seems like it has gotten incredibly deep over the last couple years. Guys just put up big numbers over the course of a season now. You got players like Robby Anderson putting up 1100 yards with backup QBs for half the season. Justin Jefferson as a rookie had 1400/7 and isn't even being discussed in the first two rounds.

So RE: my above post, maybe it just makes sense to nab Kelce at the turn.

I like your above rankings. I probably like fading Kamara this year now though. Reduced rushing volume and you could see how little they used him in the passing game without Brees.

Is Akers this years Drake? Late season bloom leads to high draft and a bust. Probably not, Stafford won't eat into his value nearly as much as Kyler did with Drake.
Yeah receive is crazy deep, which is probably an argument to move guys like Waller and Kittle up and move guys like Metcalf/Ridley/Diggs down, but it's tough.

I can see fading Kamara, but I have to imagine his rushing volume will increase even if his receiving volume decreases. They should still want him to get 20 touches a game.

Also I just realized I forgot Zeke lol. I'd probably put him between Barkley and Ekeler.

I'm a little worried about Barkley in year one after the ACL tear, but the dude is a freak, so I'd still take him in the top half of the first without shame. He's just a little bit riskier, imo.

I think Akers is much better than Drake, and like you said, Stafford won't be rushing like Kyler.

Again, I like Akers and Swift a lot. I think both teams are going to have to use each a lot.
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Old 02-08-2021, 03:08 PM   #2655
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

I'd be pretty excited if I could get Kittle in late Round 3/mid Round 4 for value

I'll still probably target Waller around then, though
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Old 02-08-2021, 05:26 PM   #2656
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Oh ****, just noticed no Zeke on the list...he was a top 5? RB with Dak. Knew something felt off and all my RB questions were trying to find it and it came closest at CEH but still felt off.

I wasn't saying I would take those RBs ahead of Mixon/Akers/Swift, just think 1-2 of them will end up above. Especially Jacobs and Zeke.

Also, just trying to get the convo started, which you did a great job doing!
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Old 02-08-2021, 07:43 PM   #2657
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

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I'd be pretty excited if I could get Kittle in late Round 3/mid Round 4 for value

I'll still probably target Waller around then, though
I suppose he could fall there, but I doubt it in 10+ man leagues. If I could get him there, Iíd probably consider it. But I think consensus will have him with an ADP in the 20-25 range. I think thatís where Waller lands too.
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Old 02-08-2021, 07:45 PM   #2658
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

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Oh ****, just noticed no Zeke on the list...he was a top 5? RB with Dak. Knew something felt off and all my RB questions were trying to find it and it came closest at CEH but still felt off.

I wasn't saying I would take those RBs ahead of Mixon/Akers/Swift, just think 1-2 of them will end up above. Especially Jacobs and Zeke.

Also, just trying to get the convo started, which you did a great job doing!
Definitely. It was a real rough off the top of my head list haha. I’d probably put Zeke between Barkley and Ekeler, but I’d consider putting him 3rd behind Cook. I’m just weary due to how badly his value tanked when Dak was injured.

I plan to do a top 100 comprehensive list with short descriptions on each player some time this summer. I’m trying to focus way more on relative rankings for all positions than a top 20-25 of each position. I think it’ll help me draft better.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 02-08-2021 at 07:52 PM.
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Old 03-14-2021, 04:24 PM   #2659
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Pack re-sign Jones. Not sure how to feel about that one with his usage history plus Dillon and Williams. I really thought Jones would end up elsewhere. I guess Williams will be the one leaving?

I love Jones, but he can be damn frustrating.
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Old 03-15-2021, 12:35 PM   #2660
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Always feels to me like Jones could be a 20+ carry per game fantasy monster if Green Bay just used him that way. Instead you get way too many 10c/50y/0.5td type games, and then he blows up for 20/150/3 once every half season. Just hurts too much with Rodgers there and Williams/Dillon eating into it. Still a 2nd rounder with his numbers though.
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Old 03-15-2021, 02:43 PM   #2661
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Hey guys sorry for bailing last year, pope told me what you guys did and I'm very sorry for creating all that extra work you guys did to prevent my team from becoming a few win upsetting competitive balance

Tl:dr phone and laptop broke right before multi month trek started and just got disconnected from the world for a while
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Old 03-15-2021, 02:48 PM   #2662
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

I think Williams is likely gone from GB.
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Old 03-16-2021, 02:16 AM   #2663
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
Hey guys sorry for bailing last year, pope told me what you guys did and I'm very sorry for creating all that extra work you guys did to prevent my team from becoming a few win upsetting competitive balance

Tl:dr phone and laptop broke right before multi month trek started and just got disconnected from the world for a while
Lol all good - just glad nothing bad happened to you.

ó

Williams def gone from GB it would seem.

Fitz to WFT is very intriguing for McLaurin imo
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Old 03-17-2021, 06:16 PM   #2664
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Definitely glad nothing happened to rickroll.

Fitz will certainly be slinging it to Terry.

AJ Green to Ari.
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Old 03-20-2021, 08:06 PM   #2665
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Good things happening for my dynasty QBs Tua and Danny Dimes.
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Old 04-13-2021, 01:02 PM   #2666
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Conner to Cardinals.

Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice... **** fantasy football.
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Old 04-13-2021, 03:08 PM   #2667
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

It's definitely interesting. Probably going to try to get at least 1 or 2 shares of each, but I definitely won't be loading up. Together, they are going to be frustrating, but if one or the other gets injured there is a path to a major workload.

Obviously, they could still sign or draft someone else, but right now the only other backs on the roster are Eno, DJ Foster, Khalfani Muhammed, and Jonathan Ward.
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Old 04-13-2021, 03:13 PM   #2668
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Two ASU backs! They need to get Ballage.
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Old 04-13-2021, 07:38 PM   #2669
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Maybe my post didn't properly convey my opinion, I will avoid that like the plague. Kyler is just death for any RB touchdown equity.
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Old 04-13-2021, 07:50 PM   #2670
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Eh, Josh Allen seems worse, but yes.
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Old 04-13-2021, 10:18 PM   #2671
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

Kyler had 4 rushing TDs his rookie year and 11 last year. Drake also still had 10. I haven’t done the analysis, but at 20 and 26 throwing TDs, I’m guessing Kyler hasn’t overly vultured RB TDs with short throws.

Lamar has only gone 5, 7, and 7. Cam has been the biggest RB TD vulture QB I’ve ever seen. Even he’s only had double digit rushing TDs in 3 seasons, with last season him playing more as a RB than QB due to his dud shoulder.

Anyways, I’m certainly not going hard, but I think Conner and Edmonds should be able to return decent value at what I expect to be ADP; somewhere in the 70 to 100 range for both in PPR. If they start creeping into the top 50, I’ll stay away. And if I’m taking 1, it’s going to be Conner over Edmonds.

TD variance is too insane to predict; except for the super elite. And even they can be spotty. It’s all about touch volume, and then you let the game do the rest.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 04-13-2021 at 10:33 PM.
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Old 05-03-2021, 06:56 PM   #2672
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

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Old 05-08-2021, 01:41 AM   #2673
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

If there is any space in a 2+2 fantasy league this year, I would be down. Just getting in ahead of time
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Old 05-09-2021, 07:15 PM   #2674
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

I have an orphan in a dynasty superflex if anyone is interested. We pay a year in advance so this year is completely paid for, you would just need to pay for next year. $50, 12 team, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/SFLEX/FLEX.

Message me if interested and I'll send the team. Lamar/Davante/Ceedee are the teams best players.
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Old 05-09-2021, 10:43 PM   #2675
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Re: 2020 Fantasy Football Thread

what site is it hosted on?

if it's on yahoo i'll sign up as first alternate
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