https://howmanydaysuntil.center/mlb-opening-day/

I'm just really excited about this year

LEGGO

I am probably only gonna play one or two leagues this year which is disappointing. Especially after crushing last season. But I just have too much going on this summer. Lots of trips scheduled including 3 weeks in Europe. Since one of the keys to success is staying on top of everything and making moves before they become obvious to the masses I just won't be in a position to stay tuned in. Being better informed and forward looking and quick on the waiver wire are where I feel my strengths as a player lie. Without this I lose any perceived edge that I feel I have.

I firmly believe that persistence is one of the most important aspects of fantasy baseball. A good portion of players check out or lose interest by mid season and if you are one that doesn't you will have a big edge on the others. The season is so long and there are so many changes made throughout a season a fantasy manager has to stay locked in all season long and this year I am just not gonna be able to do that. So I will draft a team or two and hope I run good since this year I won't be able to focus in like I usually do since I will be traveling most of the summer.

Is there something where I can just set a 25 man roster and then maybe change it at the all-star break?

I believe your looking for Fantasy Football. That starts up again in August.

In for another year

Baseball!

Thoughts on Astros hitters this year? Any concerns at all?

I think you have to knock them down a notch or two (ie expect less)

I won't have to worry about them. I don't draft cheaters.



But yeah, I guess knock them down a little bit but I don't think you should put too much stock into it. The guys suspected of cheating who are being rostered for fantasy are still really good players. They were just doing something extra to try to increase the edge.

Altuve:
Home - In 262 PAs, .306, 18 HRs, 37 RBIs, 24 BBs, 35 SOs.
Away - In 286 PAs, .291, 13 HRS, 37 RBIs, 17 BBs, 47 SOs.

The home splits are a little bit better, but not enough to move the needle. I'd imagine the home/away splits for any rando player will generally show slightly better results at home.

Bregman:
Home - In 345 PAs, .278, 16 HRs, 50 RBIs, 54 BBs, 44 SOs.
Away - In 345 PAs, .315, 25 HRs, 62 RBIs, 65 BBs, 39 SOs.

So he was actually quite a bit better away than at home.

I’d assume they primarily got their buzzes in the playoffs too, not every home game through the season

Yup. The edge was most needed against the best teams when the stakes were the highest. The Astros could easily make the playoffs without cheating.

Plus, they needed to try to keep some deception. If they were doing it every game, I'm sure it would have been picked up more quickly.

first fun keeper decisions

we keep 5, up to 5 seasons with escalating keeper rounds.

acuna 25th
lux 26th
hiura 26th
woodruff 18th
luzardo 24th
gore 26th
matt manning 26th

acuna and gore are no brainers for me. manning feels like a keep at that price. then lux and hiura?

Acuna is definitely a must.

And then yeah Gore and hope that he comes in and produces as a top prospect.

I definitely like Hiura after his season last year. He was impressive in 84 games.

I guess I like Manning, but his problem is that he's a pitcher for Det. That offense is awful, so he's not going to have much run support.

Lux should do well simply being in a lineup as great as the Dodgers, especially after they picked up Betts.

Woodruff is decent, but at 18th, he has the worst value of that list I think. Although, I could be swayed to keep him over Manning.

Who knows what will happen with Luzardo, but it seems pretty uncertain that you'll get much out of him next year.

So in sum, Acuna, Gore and Hiura seem like definite keepers. And then I'd rank them Lux, Woodruff, Manning, Luzardo.

I can keep 5 without any round considerations. Pretty basic ESPN scoring system in my league.

Yelich
Ohtani
Scherzer
Kershaw
Castillo

The above are my leans. My other options are

Carlos Santana
LeMahieu
Suarez
Rosario
Story
Gary Sanchez
Stanton - Such a ****ing disappointment last year I don't even want to consider him, but probably should
Gurriel Jr.

And then the rest of my pitchers are pretty average. I was going to consider German until he was suspended for the first half of the season. I also have Keuchel, but meh.

i'm keeping story over ohtani and Kershaw. Maybe Sanchez over Kershaw too

Yeah, Story is definitely a consideration. He plays in one of the best ballparks and he's really good.

However, I'm having trouble getting past the versatility of Ohtani to get me points as both a pitcher and a batter. He's certainly a risk, but I think it's worth the risk.

I know Kershaw has an injury history, but he was 16-5 with a 3.03 ERA (granted a 3.86 FIP) last season and they just added another strong bat to the lineup. Even if his ERA drops a bit, he should still rack up the wins. He also averaged 6.5 SOs per game. On an average per game basis, he was 9th in my league last year among pitchers. So while it was one of his worst seasons as a starter, it was still really good and his expectation bar is really high. I don't really see how I can't keep that if I expect at least similar production. Castillo was actually 2 points worse on a per game basis.

Sanchez is interesting. He hit 34 HRs and batted in 77 RBIs, but he also only batted .232. Although catcher is sort of like the TE in the NFL, where you definitely want to make sure you get one that produces or else you may be streaming trash all season. I just don't know if that puts him as a top 50 player. My league is 10 teams.

Im keeping Story without question.

Hmmm. I guess I'm undervaluing Story and overvaluing Ohtani.

I'm also worried about Scherzer's neck and back issues, but how can I not keep him?

I also think Castillo takes another leap forward this season. Hopefully he can decrease his walk percentage. And the Reds have improved their team, so hopefully that means more wins. So I'm pretty much locked into Yelich, Scherzer and Castillo.

This week I have started the grind. Have been listening to podcasts about 3 hours a day while working out. I can't wait to get up to speed and formulate my strategy. I already disagree with lots of "expert" opinions which is exactly where I wanna be.

Depends on what kind of pitching will be available though. But you have to keep Story as he should be a late first rounder this year. Otani is my least favorite on the lean list though. You should be able to keep Story and trade him for a better pitcher than some of those on the list and Scherzer kinda scares me this season.

Admittedly, baseball is by far my weakest fantasy sport. I'm much stronger at football and basketball. I hardly watch any baseball games, but this will be my 4th season doing it. One of my friends wanted me to play.

But even not watching the games, you can pick up a lot by looking at stat trends. Plus, baseball has a fantastic sample size.

I'll move Story into my top 5 and demote Ohtani for now.

@mrbaseball, how do you feel about Ohtani overall, ignoring the keeper factor? I guess his pitching ability is still a HUGE question mark at this point.

Lots of potential and nothing proven. Just too many question marks for me. I am assuming you have him both ways (hitter and pitcher). I think most of his value is as a pitcher but we have almost no sample and an injury history. He's a good hitter but my feeling always is that hitters of his caliber are a dime a dozen. He won't move the needle much there. But if turns into a legitimate ace his value soars. I'd just rather see it before I pay for it.

My league is a free, pride only league. So I might still YOLO it with Ohtani. And yes, I have him as an option as both a pitcher and batter. If I do, I might do something crazy and drop Scherzer. If not, then probably Castillo.

I'm all in with Kershaw this year. Could be a mistake, but I believe he's got one more great one him. Dodgers with a lot of chips on the shoulder this season. And I would imagine especially pitchers, with the sign stealing BS. Kershaw has been killed for playoff performance so far in his career. It would be nice if this Betts trade went through lol.

We also play a 5, 4, 3, start over keeper style, so that's also a slight consideration.

You guys have sold me on keeping Story, though. Story and Yelich should be a nice batter foundation.

We can also trade players and picks at this point, so might try to ship Scherzer. We will see. Our draft will be mid-March, right before the season begins.

In for the season!

...and I come to y'all with a keeper question.

For my seventh and final keeper I get to pick Soroka in the 14th, or F Reyes in the 17th. (Others are Story, Suarez, Corbin, Torres, Meadows, Baez--all no briainers). 12 team 5x5 roto.

Soroka appears a little behind Reyes in rankings, but I'm leaning towards him. Worried his ratios dissolve and he becomes useless, but probably worth rolling the dice to have a deeper rotation, no?

Knowing nothing about your league I would lean Soroka. You only have one other pitcher kept and if guys are keeping that many players I would assume there won't be much reasonable pitching talent available to draft. Also guys like Reyes are pretty much a dime a dozen and you even if you love him you should have a better chance to draft him back than Soroka if my theory of not much pitching being available holds true.