Sure I’ll join a $20 league. I kinda wanted another league

This is what I want but I have low hopes

fantastic

I'll pm you the link now

I’m confused, why do you think the top pick has such a huge advantage in your league?

Drew pick 11 in a 12man PPR 2rb/3wr/te/flex league.

Is Kelce value or spew in this spot?

It's the nature of snake drafts. The top picks have an inherent advantage. He outlined the changes that made this more pronounced in a previous post (addition of ppr, elimination of a flex position, change to FAAB from reverse draft position waivers).

Neither?

Because he’s way overstating the value of the 1 spot. There isn’t even a clear top pick this year. Assuming Zeke plays week 1, you could make an argument for 4 separate guys going 1. With DJ, Nuk, Adams, etc, not far behind. A loss of 50% of FAAB for the 1 spot is a joke. A 3rd round reversal is a possible mitigation. I’d rather keep the draft as is and have the 10th/12th pick with chances at 4 top 30-37 players (I can’t remember if he said 10 team or 12 team) including guys like a Kelce, Julio, Odell, A. Jones, Diggs, etc.

A pick like 5 would be the most annoying spot.

Agreed. Kelce is a neutral EV at that spot. I’d definitely take him there, but it’s not massive value or anything.

I think Kelce is the only sure thing at that spot. I'd slam that home and be grateful you both no longer need to worry about TE and can possibly get a better RB or WR with the next pick than the one you would have taken at that spot instead of Kelce.

I also see Mahomes go around this point too, although an optimizer that doesn't account for game theory would smash him in as the #1 pick, I basically have no shares of Mahomes because I'm never taking a QB until the 5th round at earliest and the latest he will hang around is halfway into round 4.

Around there is when things start to deviate heavily, largely because of uncertainty. We have no idea if Mixon is a better option than Conners. No idea if Juju is better than Michael Thomas. But we sure as hell know that Kelce will be step above either Ertz or Kittle and leaps and bounds ahead of anyone else at that position.

For me, it's especially important to grab Kelce because the stars aligned for Kittle last year and I'm not certain he'll get as much volume this year. I also think Ertz possibly had his career year last year.

After those big 3, you have some a lot of question marks, while I'm huge on Howard, basically, the only way to get him is to pay for assumed improvement, which is rarely more than a neutral EV draft pick and often backfires horribly. You're drafting Howard while 1k yard RBs and WRs are still on the board. Having said that, the thought of having one of those TEs after those 3 at TE1 is a terrifying prospect for me so I'll often pay the troll toll.

In best ball, I have 0 shares of Kittle and wound up with Kelce/Ertz/Howard in probably 75% or more of my teams. And since getting Kelce/Ertz has more to do with draft position than how much you are on a guy, most of that is heavy on the OJ. I'm going to get around to analyze it all and see who all my players are and at what exposure.

Which start do you guys like more drafting from the 5 spot in an 8 man 1QB/2RB/3WR/1Flex/1Def PPR league? I am going to list my order of preference from top to bottom. This also assumes the top 4 RBs are taken in the first 4 picks.

Nuk
Kelce
WR - Evans/K. Allen/Hilton/Thielen/Diggs
RB - D. Williams/A. Jones/K. Johnson
RB - A. Jones/D. Freeman/Mack
RB - C. Carson is my main target

DJ
Kelce
WR - Evans/K. Allen/Hilton/Thielen/Diggs
WR - Diggs/Thilen
RB - A. Jones/D. Freeman/Mack
RB - Mack/Jacobs

Nuk
WR - Julio/ODB/Tyreek
WR - Evans/Hilton
TE - If Kittle or Ertz are available, if not, RB with A. Jones/D. Williams/Freeman
RB - A. Jones/Freeman
TE - Engram/OJ/Hunter if not taken in round 4.

I could go all day, but I think I really like scenario 1. I don't think A. Jones, D. Williams, K. Johnson, etc. will be that far behind DJ in production. So I think I'd rather secure Nuk as the top receiver, get Kelce, get another top receiver since we start 3, and then pound RB and other WR value. I'm also willing to take Adams if someone takes Nuk, but then that also means that one of the top 4 RBs would be available. Although, if it's Zeke and he's not scheduled to play week 1, I am not going to take him. 6/8 teams make the playoffs, so I could ride it out, but I am just not dealing with a holdout situation. I refuse to do it.

In dynasty, I offered Albert Wilson and David Moore for Brieda and McKinnon. He declined, so I asked what it would take. He said MVS and Tre'Quan. Think it's worth wrapping up that SF backfield? I have Tevin.

What's the rest of your roster and scoring system?

Any $50 or lower leagues that need players? I can't use leaguesafe though

Half PPR. Start 2 RB, 2 WR and 2 flex. I have depth with CMC, Guice, Henry, Tevin, Howard at RB. And Tyreek, AB, AJ, Godwin, Landry at WR. But I trade a lot so will look different by season start if I can help it.

I like this one the best by a wide margin

You have to take DJ at #5 if he's still there (Zeke has blown up the 1-4 dynamic so DJ usually goes #4.

ARI has an insanely easy schedule. HOU perhaps has the hardest one. Nuk vs any if the next 4-5 WRs is basically even money. DJ is a bit ahead of Bell, Mixon, Chub, & Conners and then it's a swift drop into the unknown.

I'd look to grab Mixon or Conners when it comes back around. There's probably less than 10% chance Kelce comes to you in the second.

This is why I don't think it'll be very helpful to map it out like you have. It'll be much more helpful to rank and tier the guys you like at each position and then have a list ready to take the top one.

lol DJ sorry

I've had too much David Johnson the last 3 years

rookie coach, rookie QB, I can see that team doing exactly what they did last year, and that was pure frustration for owners.

I had DJ in 2 spots last season, and this is my main concern.

Kelce may not be there at 12, but the guys drafting 6-11 aren’t the most fantasy savvy. So I could see them favoring RB/WR over Kelce. Hell, one of them might even take Mahomes.

If Kelce isn’t there at 12, I’ll go one of Julio/OBD/Reek.

I am not touching Connor. I don’t think he will come close to replicating what he did before he got injured. I’m not confident in his durability and I think Samuels will get quite a few opportunities to catch out of the backfield.

I do like Mixon. He is talented and there isn’t much competition for him.

I also like Chubb a lot. I might try to get one of those guys in the third if I don’t go RB in the first. Damien Williams is also of interest to me.

If DJ is gone and Zeke has not shown up, my decision for Nuk will be even easier.

Bell’s ADP is also too high. I actually think guys like Mixon and Chubb have a good shot at having better seasons than DJ.

Another thing that I believe is that finding a startable RB is much easier as the season goes on than finding a startable WR. Especially in an 8 man league with 6 player benches. A lot of handcuffs are on the wire. So if a RB goes down and someone steps into the starting roll, I can find a volume guy in need. Case in point, I started both Damien Williams and A. Jones in my championship round last season while benching DJ.

We’ll see, thanks for the input fellas.

I am a big DJ truther this year but in an 8 man league I would shift priority to elite WR/TEs in early rounds for many of the reasons you stated. I would happily start 3 WR or 2 WR/TE and could see myself starting 3WR/TE with my first 4 picks if certain guys fell

guys.. if anyone is interested, there's a dynasty league in another forum here at 2+2 and the league is looking for managers

here's the link https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/5...l#post55353207

100$ entry, and some method would be used to determine which of the currently rudderless teams you would inherit.

I didn't sell that very well lol rudderless, directionless , leaderless

I took over a team in that very league last year and finished 2nd lol

that's how I'll spin it

Momentum! I just joined that dynasty league. Come on fellas, let’s do it.

I don't really think it's a question of looking DJ. It's that Conners may not have the tremendous volume again. Mixon could be facing plenty of stacked boxes and game scripts that favor gio. Bell... was signed by a GM who was fired by a coach who's said he didn't want him and missed a year, will have a much worse o line, won't get PIT type volume and is getting near the age when RBs hit a cliff.

DJ has warts for sure and could easily end up disappointing, but for me it comes down to nuk/Adams/Julio/obj/Thomas are all basically interchangeable whereas DJ is a clear cut above any other RBs left at that point.

There's nothing wrong with taking a WR there, but I'd personally lock up RB or reach on Kelce instead given you can likely get one of those guys at R2 anyway.

I have no problem buying into the browns hype and taking Chubb over mixon, Conners and bell. Doesn't seem like such a huge gamble.

Connors I think it's very safe just because the starting RB for the Steelers is always a valuable asset.

Any of them could finish above the others, it's quite close.

Edit: but I'm taking DJ over all of them.

Thinking about it more, I think I might “reach” and lock up Kelce at 1.05.