12 team keeper league, .5 ppr, 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, flex, tight end

Auction League, $200 budget, can keep players for as long as you want by adding $5 to their price from previous year

Can keep 3 of the following:

Julio$52
Joe mixon $47
TY Hilton $46
Melvin Gordon $37
Brandin Cooks $28
Christian Kirk $7

I'm definitely keeping Kirk (I'm expecting big things, plus I went to aTm). If there was no contract holdout, I'd keep Kirk, Gordon, and Julio. Slight chance I may keep Mixon over Julio but I doubt it.

With Gordon's contract situation, I don't have a clue what I'm doing. I'm leaning towards keeping Kirk, Julio, and Mixon. Or I may just keep Kirk and Julio and sell Gordon or Mixon to another owner (For instance, if I sell Gordon for $50 to another owner then I would get $13 extra draft dollars, I would keep for $37 and then sell for $50).

Any thoughts on what to do with Gordon? I'm going to feel very dumb if I don't keep him and he plays the entire year. But I have a feeling this may be a long holdout. I have to decide by this Saturday (7 days before our draft).

Damn, sucks you have to decide by Saturday.

I’d keep Julio, Mixon and Kirk. Sell Hilton, Gordon and Cooks if you can. I expect the production for Mixon and Gordon would be relatively even over the season if Gordon was playing.

I agree, the Chargers have pretty much said **** off to Gordon. If he plays this year, I don’t think it’s for the Chargers. He was a big supporter of Bell. Maybe you can unload Melvin for $47+ to make up the difference between him and Mixon.

Agreed.

Plus, Julio said he was going for 3,000 yards this season. So you may have the greatest fantasy season of all-time on your team.

Thanks iraze & tarheel. I was a little worried about reports of Julio wanting to break the WR contract record. I can’t handle a le’veon and Julio holdout in back to back years.

I don’t think that’ll be an issue for this season. Maybe next year when he is going into the final year of his current contract. But who knows anymore?

When is the last time we saw a player holding out with 2 years remaining on the rookie deal? Granted, Zeke is a beast and the RB NFL life is very short.

I get Gordon’s situation a little more, since he only has one year left on his deal. But most of the past holdouts have been guys who were in a franchise tag situation wanting a long-term deal.

I think Julio is good for this season, but I guess it could be a minor concern for the future given that your league is a keeper league.

I’ve loved Le’Veon since he entered the league. He was magical on that Pitt offense. He’s been one of my favorite fantasy players when he’s been on the field. But I just don’t think see the same guy in NYJ. Maybe volume wise, but not production wise. Big Ben LOVED the Le’Veon check down. I just don’t see the same production with Sam.

But who knows? It is fantasy after all.

Ugh, keeper deadline in an hour and a half, keep 3. A few weeks ago I was deciding between:
Antonio Brown
AJ Green
Stefon Diggs
James Conner

Now I am definately throwing AJ Green back and thinking about doing the same with Antonio Brown and instead thinking about keeping Kenny Golladay.

HELP!

Brutal spot, but I still think you have to keep AB over Golladay. Even with the frostbite and all lol.

Definitely let go of AJ.

What’d you decide?

I kept Mr. frostbite, I was leaning that way anyways. I will have a chance to get Golladay for sure in the first round if I want, I don't think AB will get to me (I have 12th pick).

Stupid commissioner has some conflicts the next few weekends so we are drafting this Saturday which is the earliest we've ever drafted in my 10 years in this league.

Drafting redraft that early sucks because there are bound to be some injuries.

Yes I know. A few years ago we ran into drama with the Jordy Nelson injury after keepers had posted and the guy wanted to be able to swap keepers (prior to draft) and the commish agreed (it was his Dad) and I had to be an *******.

The only keeper league I'm in we have a clause where if one of your designated keepers has a season ending injury pre draft you can replace him with someone else from your previous year's roster.
Seems fair to me.

Having a draft that early I think I'd push to at least have a round of waivers before the season starts.

Yea, we tried to have the draft August 24th, but not everyone could attend so we are having it a week earlier than usual. Sucks for me, but I doubt anything will be known for Gordon in that extra week anyways.

If you sell a player, it counts as a keep (you keep them and then sell). So I can only keep or sell 3 players total. I'm definitely keeping Julio and Kirk. I'm leaning towards keeping Mixon for my third, or keeping Julio/Kirk/Gordon and selling Gordon. I think I can get a high number form someone because Gordon is at such a good keeper price moving forward if the contract is worked out.

I'll just be depressed if I don't keep Gordon or sell him and then he shows up to camp shortly after that.

i'm loving best ball because I don't need to baby sit it and the leagues I've drafted in, even for $100 or so are soft as hell, people taking Brady and Brees with the 1st round pick type of soft

nearly every draft there's at least one or two guys that's dead money drafting only a single QB or something, it's just silly

Ahh, I got you know. I misunderstood the sell process, but that makes more sense.

That's definitely a shitty spot. Might as well flip a coin between Gordon and Mixon lol.

Mixon definitely has the much higher floor given the situation, and Gordon has the higher ceiling...if he plays.

Would you even be able to sell Gordon with the contract dispute situation? I can't see anyone paying $37 or more for him, unless they are really confident he comes back. And no one can say that for sure. And if Gordon decides to come back, wouldn't you want to keep him anyways rather than sell him?

What site are you playing best ball on? I think I am screwed living in AZ.

I use the DRAFT app for best ball

Yea i think I could sell him, not sure how much I'd make though (think I could sell in the $50 range). If he does come back, he's good keeper value for the next 3 years or so. Which means they should be willing to pay a premium for him. So if they pay me $50, and he comes back this year, that's a bargain for them because they can keep him for $42 next year, $47 the year after, and so on. The top running backs that are available for draft typically go between $55-75.

I'm almost talking myself into just keeping him and hoping for the best. Will I be more mad at myself for keeping him and having him not play or letting him go and having him play? Tough call.

Ahh, I just assumed they would have to start at the $50 value they'd get from you. Not that the $37 value would get grandfathered in. That makes it more fair.

I wonder how much Mixon would go for if you didn't keep him.

It's always hard to gauge draft values because the auction value rankings on various websites are basically useless. The fact that teams are able to keep some keepers for cheap and the fact that alot of good/great players are kept and thus not eligible to draft seems to really inflate the top tier players' draft prices.

If I had to guess, Mixon would go in the $50-60 range. Running back seems fairly deep this year, so there are quite a few good running backs who will be in the draft. Bell, DJ, Conner, Cook, Fournette, Jones, Freeman, Damien Williams, etc can all be drafted. With so many options available and no clear cut best backs, it's possible that keeping Mixon may not even save me much. But if a couple people like him, then he could easily go for big dollars.

Hey guys, so I modeled out best ball and here are the ideal options for matching up your starters with your bench players



explanatory article here

this is my first time doing this so feel free to send any feedback

Eh I disagree that schedule compatibility is "the most important metric" as the article claims, or even that important at all in best ball.

When I'm picking bench players (that is, after round ~10) it's more a question of "do I need more consistency or do I need more ceiling" - I like having a balance of both when the draft is finished. Said differently, it's HOW a player scores his points that matters more than which teams he plays against (e.g. for WRs: more receptions bcz he runs more slot routes? or more dependent on the longer bombs?)

I don't have a lot of research to back this up except to say that it's worked well for me (although it's been at the equivalent of 1/2 NL stakes)

thanks for the commentary

This is a good point and while true, it's something that I researched thoroughly before heading down this route and people tend to vastly overestimate how consistent/inconsistent someone is

There are some outliers like Mike Evans, but the data seems to indicate it doesn't really matter if someone is a slot or deep threat in terms of fantasy point peaks and valleys.

You definitely make me think that I possibly should look into this more and will think about publishing some of the data behind that.

Not sure where I posted it, but it's relevant now.

https://m.soundcloud.com/lateroundpo...green-episodes

What are your thoughts on the conversation between JJ Zachariason and Mike Beers?

I try to employ the hyper-fragile draft concept, and it's been really successful for me.

Didn't get this guy to bite, unfortunately he valued his players correctly. Have an interesting proposition rearing its head.

League is a 12-team keeper, every team keeps between 0-4 players and loses between 0-4 1st-4th round picks for each player that they keep. It's a straight draft and I have the 4th pick.

Right now I'm keeping M. Thomas, Kelce, and Fournette. Guy has a team with D. Adams, A. Kamara, K. Allen, J. Mixon, and Damien Williams. He's going to lose one of these guys for nothing unless we pull off a 2-for-1 or I send him a draft pick.

Looks to me like Williams is his odd man out since he's offered me two lol trades:

Allen/Williams for Thomas/6th
Mixon/Williams for Thomas/5th

If I counter with Adams/Williams for Thomas/5th, is this good value for me? Essentially giving up my 4th and 5th for Williams, who is late 2nd/early 3rd value at the moment.

How worried are we that Williams is going to split time? Do I make this trade and snap up Hyde at the first chance I get? Otherwise I may play hardball and try to get Williams with the lowest pick possible since he's going to drop him anyway. People are also bad drafters in this league - should I stand pat with the good draft position given Williams' stock is falling? Any thoughts appreciated!