Your 9th pick kinda doesn't mean much. Even only keeping two in your league, you're getting about full round value on CMC, as I'd value your #9 pick in the 12-14 range, not knowing your league.

I agree with you about Ekeler not being the clear handcuff and ultimately I think that is why Gordon in the third and Ekeler in the seventh isn't a good one, but everything else you said is wrong.

Gordon is a clear first round pick if he isn't holding out. He averaged over 100 yfs and 4 receptions per game and scored 14 tds in 12 games on abnormally low goal line volume.

It is also smart to hedge if you are going to take a player that is holding out, even if that means reaching a bit to makes sure you get him. It's a much more antifragile approach because if he is wrong about Gordon and doesn't have his backup his chances of winning are much worse than if he wastes a 7th round pick.

I would consider Kittle in the 9th before Duke in the 7th. Houston is shopping Clowney and will probably get an RB in return, most likely McCoy or Penny, and the Texans offense doesn't really use RBs in th epassing game very much.

Here is an article about David Johnson's usage as a receiver, but it also goes into the Texans usage of backs as receivers as well:
https://football.razzball.com/davidj...-airraidimpact

I think it is close between Kittle and CMC and you would probably be fine keeping either player.

Derrick Henry gets 25 teachers a shopping spree for back to school supplies and it's posted on Twitter and stuff. Looks like they're pumping up his image = they know his usage is going to be huge this season and he'll be the face of the franchise. Lets ****ing go Derrick!

Yeah, but what he catch like, tho?

That is like the least data driven reason I have ever seen on why to draft someone in fantasy football.

In a $300 ppr league that we started last year with 8 teams and raised it to 12 this year, I need to select my 3 keepers.

I currently plan on keeping D. Adams for $46, D. Williams for $10 and Mahomes for $10. Other available options are Bell for $84, Gurley for $92, Keenan $68, Landry for $34 and the rest are irrelevant imo. Available guys from top 30 will probably be: DJ, one of Melvin or Julio, one of Zeke or ODB, Cook, Evans, AB, Thielen, Diggs and the players I'm not keeping so like 10 players.

Because we have 4 new entries in the league that will have their entire budget I probably won't be able to draft any of the above players. Do you guys think I should keep Bell or Gurley instead of Mahomes thus have a smaller budget, but locking 2 elite players and a good one or I should just leave it and start bidding?

I'll mention that last year was the first time playing with auction and this is the second.

Thanks!

Gordon could be worth a 3rd if he comes back mid season and puts up his numbers from last year. He would be a mid first with no contract issues.

You can have a championship winning roster with a few good waiver wire adds even if gordon and ekeler never play a game. A seventh round pick is a 50/50 call to even be on his roster at the end of the year

I drafted Pollard in the 10th round for insurance for Zeke.

I've joined a start up keeper league and I've never played one before, is the strategy for the draft any different than a redraft league? You get to keep 4 players at the end of the season and forfeit the draft pick in the round you took them this year.

Already drafted him days ago. Hype is more convincing myself not to give up on the season.

Actually kind of curious how bad I butchered my 3rd and 4th picks though. Pick 9 of 10 in non PPR, I go Hopkins/Kelce. All the obvious guys go round 2. Here's who got taken round 3 leading up to my next pick.

Freeman
Evans
Jacobs
Fournette
Hilton
Carson
Jones
Kerryon
Me (Amari Coop)
Montgomery
Mack
Me (Henry)

Mack was the play where I went Coop?

Yahoo 100$ paid league .5 ppr 10 teams 1qb 2rb 3wr 1 flex 1 te
I drafted 2 teams in 2 leagues please let me know what you think
TEAM A
1. (6) David Johnson (Ari - RB)
2. (15) Travis Kelce (KC - TE)
3. (26) Antonio Brown (Oak - WR)
4. (35) Julian Edelman (NE - WR)
5. (46) Mark Ingram II (Bal - RB)
6. (55) Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR)
7. (66) Alshon Jeffery (Phi - WR)
8. (75) Jarvis Landry (Cle - WR)
9. (86) Tarik Cohen (Chi - RB)
10. (95) Russell Wilson (Sea - QB)
11. (106) Emmanuel Sanders (Den - WR)
12. (115) Tony Pollard (Dal - RB)
13. (126) Justin Jackson (LAC - RB)
14. (135) Wil Lutz (NO - K)
15. (146) Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)


TEAM B

TEAM 1B
1. (10) Le'Veon Bell (NYJ - RB)
2. (11) Davante Adams (GB - WR)
3. (30) Stefon Diggs (Min - WR)
4. (31) Leonard Fournette (Jax - RB)
5. (50) Kenny Golladay (Det - WR)
6. (51) Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR)
7. (70) James White (NE - RB)
8. (71) Austin Ekeler (LAC - RB)
9. (90) Drew Brees (NO - QB)
10. (91) Corey Davis (Ten - WR)
11. (110) Austin Hooper (Atl - TE)
12. (111) LeSean McCoy (Buf - RB)
13. (130) Baltimore (Bal - DEF)
14. (131) Mitchell Trubisky (Chi - QB)
15. (150) Kareem Hunt (C

No, Mack might be really bad without Luck. Some pretty jarring splits in wins vs. losses. If Colts lose more than they win, it would be a benefit to Hines.

And in non PPR, Henry is fine pick there. Would rather have Henry than Mack, but those four picks after Kerryon are all players I avoid in PPR.

Diggs or Theilen if you wanna go WR, maybe Keenen Allen if he was still there, though I'm lower on him than most. If you feel like you have to go RB then I guess Henry was the best option, but I'd rather take one of those WR then hope for Duke next round. But yeah I feel pretty shitty if I have to end up with Cooper/Henry there

Hard to say without seeing who else was available of course, but I would not be too happy with either of these in a 10 team league. I like the first 8 or so of the 2nd team better, but the second 7 or so of the first team better, the last 5 picks in particular for team 2 just look like a trash pile.

So, in my keeper league, I traded up from 4.06 to 4.01 to have the first pick in the draft eligible to be kept next season (3 player keeper league, can be kept up to 3 seasons with keeper cost increasing 2 rounds each time kept, keeper value must be 4th round or later). I'm looking at Melvin Gordon or Guice with this pick, thinking I'll be able to keep the one I pick for a 4th round next season. So even if Gordon doesn't play all season, if he comes back next season in a good spot he could be a great value in the 4th. Of course, so could Guice if he becomes what I hope (have him in dynasty). What do you guys think, Gordon or Guice with the intention to keep for a 4th next season?

So far, my roster in 12-team half-ppr is:
RB: Kamara (kept for 9th), Mack (kept for 10th)
WR: ODB (1.10), Godwin (kept for 13th), DJ Moore (3.10)
TE: Kelce (2.03)

If all you care about is keeper value, then it’s clearly Gordon. If you care at all about winning this year, then almost certainly neither.

Heh, winning this year is certainly a consideration. But, remember, a lot of players have been kept to this point so these are the players available who I think have the highest upside for this season as well. Other players available include James White, Tarik Cohen, J Howard, Corey Davis, Landry, Alshon, Penny, ARob, Fuller, AJ Green, Ebron, Hunt. Basically, it's really late 6th round when take keepers into account.

This is close enough to a redraft league. Worry about keeper value when you get there. Only keeping four, just let the value make itself happen. You don't need to seek it out.

That said, maybe in those late rounds, you steer away from Frank Gore or Peyton Barber for someone younger, but you're doing this once or twice.

Yeah I guess out of that group of RB's those guys are the best options, would prefer ARob to either though if trying to win now (which tends to be more of my general keeper league strat). Also is your rookie draft separate or something? Unclear how that works from info provided so far.

Thanks. I guess I'll skip the coinflip and put Cooks ahead. I like them both relative to where they're getting drafted, so I'm sure I'll be happy either way.

Rookies are part of this, but Jacobs, Miles and Montgomery are gone.

Oh I got ya. So you are (or were) in the middle of your draft as of your original post?

Yes, but it's a slow draft. I still have 12 hours to make my pick, because certain hours in the middle of the night aren't counted. I'm just holding up the draft, figuring it is +EV to wait as long as possible on the off chance there is any Gordon news anyway.

12 Team 2 QB PPR 2rb/3wr/te/flex/kicker/defense 7 bench spots

1. (4) DeAndre Hopkins (Hou - WR)
2. (21) Mike Evans (TB - WR)
3. (28) Julian Edelman (NE - WR)
4. (45) Matt Ryan (Atl - QB)
5. (52) Derrick Henry (Ten - RB)
6. (69) Kyler Murray (Ari - QB)
7. (76) Kenyan Drake (Mia - RB)
8. (93) Mike Williams (LAC - WR)
9. (100) Jimmy Garoppolo (SF - QB)
10. (117) Marcus Mariota (Ten - QB)
11. (124) Sammy Watkins (KC - WR)
12. (141) LeSean McCoy (Buf - RB)
13. (148) Jordan Howard (Phi - RB)
14. (165) Eli Manning (NYG - QB)
15. (172) Jimmy Graham (GB - TE)
16. (189) Kyle Rudolph (Min - TE)
17. (196) New England (NE - DEF)
18. (213) Ty Montgomery (NYJ - RB)


IDK why I ended up with 5 qbs, but whatever like three teams dont have a qb3 so hopefully I'll be able to swing a trade. My RBs and TE are weak. (I am a derrick henry believer though)

I guess it's also hard to judge a draft without seeing the whole board

Probably going to drop Rudolph or Montgomery for a Kicker.

Keepers were CMC (1st) and Chubb (7th).
PPR
QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, TE, Flex
4 pt pass TD


Ended with

1. (9) Christian McCaffrey  (Car - RB)
2. (16) JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pit - WR)
3. (33) Chris Godwin (TB - WR)
4. (40) David Montgomery (Chi - RB)
5. (57) Alshon Jeffery (Phi - WR)
6. (64) Russell Wilson (Sea - QB)
7. (81) Corey Davis (Ten - WR)
8. (88) Nick Chubb  (Cle - RB)
9. (105) Will Fuller V (Hou - WR)
10. (112) Tony Pollard (Dal - RB)
11. (129) Mark Andrews (Bal - TE)
12. (136) Kalen Ballage (Mia - RB)
13. (153) Houston (Hou - DEF)
14. (160) Mecole Hardman (KC - WR)
15. (177) Mason Crosby (GB - K)



Think it went pretty well. I definitely could have done the Montgomery -> Alshon -> Russ -> Corey Davis section differently but I think the Fuller pick on were just highest upside remaining with best available required positions sprinkled in as well. It got a little weird in those 4th-8th rounds with 12 teams having 2 keepers each. Things got thin early.

Probably like a 7.5/10 job overall imo?

I guess a real believer in edleman also.
I'd say don't be shy in dropping MM or Eli if there is a waiver guy you like. You're not going to get any value from them because they suck and everyone knows you have 5QB's. Don't be stubborn and clog up roster spots because you cannot get perceived value for one of them.