I sure hope not. I’ll probably be without a job.

Completed my first dynasty trade of the offseason. It's variation of what we discussed above. I traded Jacobs, Josh Allen and Robby Anderson for DJ Moore, Conner and Samuels.

I just think DJ is a star if he gets the right QB. And I'm not sold on Jacobs with the way they used him last season. Anderson was buried on my team, and I don't mind giving up a QB to get a RB, even if it leaves me with little at QB. I think Conner is undervalued right now and could get back to doing what he did in 2018 with better health and Ben back. This leaves me with amazing WRs for a 12-team half-PPR league, though with little depth at RB. We can start up to 4 WRs (2 RB, 2 WR, 2 flex).

WRs: Tyreek, Godwin, DJ, Julio, TY, AJG, Fuller, Mike Williams, AB
RBs: CMC, Conner, Guice

At QB, I only have Fitzgerald but I know the guy with Mahomes is looking to move Dak.

Your RB's took a big hit for a minor WR upgrade. Don't like it at all.
Jacobs needs to prove something to you? Even if not a "3 down back" which are few and far between, his usage as a 2 down back is top tier.

I like Moore but no way I'm parting with Jacobs.

Well, my rosters are always in flux. I'd say DJ is more than a minor upgrade over Robby! Sure, he may be a minor upgrade over TY in my lineup, but I'll be making other moves. I may be biased against Jacobs because I didn't watch him at all until I traded for him during last season. Then I watched a couple games with frustration as he got yanked every 3rd down, then had him get injured and sit on my bench as I started Adrian Peterson in the championship game. I think DJ Moore is a star and I'm just not sure about Jacobs. I think Conner could have a big bounce back season, and maybe I was influenced to offer the trade after seeing the comment from the coach today that he likes having a bellcow and still sees Conner as that guy.

Jacobs' talent jumps off the screen to me. Watch his highlights from the GB game. That's also the game that he broke his shoulder and continue to play the rest of the season until it was clear they were out of the playoff hunt.

I like DJ also but that's a trade that's going to sting for awhile imo.

Don't fell bad though, I gave Chubb and Kittle away for Mixon in dynasty.
This is while Hue was still the coach and giving all the carries to Carlos mofo'ing Hyde.
FU you Hue!!!!!!

PPR league or na? If it's PPR, I don't think it's that bad. If it's .5 PPR, I'd probably rather have Jacobs. If it's standard, then it's a terrible trade lol. I'll assume it's a full PPR league.

If it's PPR, the big problem with Jacobs is he really doesn't get much work in the passing game. Sure, he will have some games where he goes for 150 and 2 TDs. But he is also going to have those really annoying games where he carries 20 times for 60 yards and 0 TDs. And if the Raiders fall behind fast (which they've been known to do), then Jacobs really isn't worth ****. He averaged 1.5 catches a game.

If you believe in Conner like you do (I don't), then you might have won on just the Jacbos/Conner swap. I believe that Tomlin wants Conner to be a bell cow. I do not believe Conner is capable of that roll. I don't think his body can handle it.

Obviously DJ > Robby, especially now that Robby is a #3 or #4 on the same team as DJ haha.

I do not like giving up Josh Allen when all you have is Fitzgerald, even if you think you can get Dak. Especially with the addition of Diggs alongside John Brown, Singetary, etc. Josh is a high floor fantasy QB. I'd rather you have thrown in one of your other receivers, but I'm guessing the guy you were trading with really needed a QB.

I assume Samuels is Jaylen Samuels?

As a Panthers fan, I'm really not sure how to feel about DJ. And that's mainly because of the QB situation. I do think DJ is a baller.

Teddy is not very good. I know he was alright starter in Minn, but that was years ago plus a complete knee blowout ago. We've seen the rodeo where an okay backup QB comes into a great situation for a few games and then gets paid by another moron team (read: my Panthers). He had talent (Thomas, Kamara, Murray, etc.), a great coach, and a great system to help him succeed. The Panthers are rolling out a college coaching staff under a pretty big rebuild.

The one thing you have going for you is that the Panthers defense will be absolute trash (we drafted all defensive players this year lol), so we should have to throw a lot. Having CMC is nice because he will be THE offense.

In Teddy's 6 games starting last year, he averaged 22 completions, 33 attempts, 231 yards, 1.5 TDs passing. And he had the best receiver in the league. His average of around 7 yards per attempt was the lowest in the league for qualifying QBs.

Yeah, it’s half-PPR. I’m feeling some regret on the deal but more in the value than the core players. If I had gotten Kirk in place of Jaylen Samuels, I’d be good with it. But we’ll see what subsequent deals I can make. There’s a couple teams that badly need WRs and have some RBs to trade, and I have arguably 4 top-10 WRs with depth behind them.

Do you have any draft picks? May have to be sure to get that Steelers rookie RB to lock up the backfield.
I was able to dump Samuels for a 3rd rounder last year and was fistpumping but possible big Ben can make him relevant again.

Well, hopefully he’ll just make Conners relevant again! No, I traded all my pics to go for the title last season. I may still have the last pic in the 3rd.

I'd try to trade Godwin for a tier 2 RB. I'm a little bit concerned about his volume with Brady and Gronk coming to town. Not to mention, Tampa should be playing with more leads and likely throwing less. Then again, Brady and Gronk will probably only be there for 2 seasons top. Dynasty is tough haha.

I'm definitely reducing Godwin's value for this upcoming season, when he will likely be one of the top 5-7 WRs off of the board in re-draft.

I wonder how much Brady will try to get Arians to go with the RB dominant attack like he had in NE. TB's RBs aren't great, but they can manage. We've seen what Brady can do with what appears to be average RBs. Brady and Jameis and they way they affect WRs and RBs is very different from both a regular football and fantasy standpoint.

Obviously, you already have the top RB in the game. I doubt you'll be able to get Kamara, Cook, Barkley, or Zeke. Maybe you can target someone like Aaron Jones. Although, Aaron will likely regress on his TD production, but I still expect him to easily be a top 10 fantasy back.

Fantasy RBs leave a lot to be desired after the top few lol.

I love Kirk.

Side note: I think Diggs is going to BEAST in Buffalo.

Well, I know the guy with Barkley is a Cowboys homer who has told me he will only trade him for Zeke. The guy with Zeke also has Henry and Gurley but nothing at WR beyond Chark and no draft pics. I’ve offered him Godwin and his choice of any two WRs from TY, AJG, MWill, Fuller for Zeke and he’s declined. I’ve offered him Godwin and Conner for Zeke and he’s declined.

What do you think of DJM for 1.3, RoJo and Gallup? That guy also has 1.1, 1.2 and 1.6. He was last place last year and is in a complete rebuild, so getting a RB with the first two pics and adding an already proven young WR with the third pic would make sense.

Who do you want with the 1.3?

I think it's pretty standard that whatever team receives RoJo in a trade is the default loser in said trade.

I’d take who is there from CET, Taylor and Dobbins. My first offer would be DJM for 1.3 and 1.6, but I was looking at that as possibly the lowest I’d take.

In before Brady makes RoJo a top 10 fantasy RB.

I think the trade idea is decent. Gallup could actually produce similarly to DJM. I doubt the other guy goes for it, though.

I posted about this as the season was ending, but I think I'm going to do something crazy and keep Lamar.

The league is a 10 man PPR league. We are doing two keepers this year. The QB points are very standard, .04 points per yard, 4 points for passing TD, 6 points for rushing TD, -2 for Ints, etc.

My other options are Chubb, Fournette, Evans, and Kamara. I think I'm going to go Lamar and Kamara and then try to pick up another RB with my first pick.

I have no idea what spot I will draft.

The assumed keepers (although this league is full of crazy people lol) of the other teams are listed below.

Team 1 - A. Jones, D. Cook. He also has Hopkins, Diggs, Jacobs, Odell, and AB (lol). As you can imagine, his team won the championship. **** Aaron Jones. He beat me by 2.94 points in the championship round thanks to Aaron's TD run on MNF.

Team 2 - CMC, Kelce. I can be pretty certain these will be her two.

Team 3 - Henry, and I guess Cooper. This guy is a lunatic lol. There is no telling what he will do. His only other options are Thielen and Hooper.

Team 4 - Adams, Julio. He also has Kittle, but I'd expect him to keep two top 5 receivers.

Team 5 - MT, Reek. He also has Ingram, Keenan, Mack, but the two receivers seem like easy keeps.

Team 6 - DJ, Julu? This guy went 2-11 lol. He also has Devonta and Melvin Gordon.

Team 7 - Zeke, Godwin. He also has Gurley and Carson.

Team 8 - Conner, Barkley. He also has Mahomes and Golladay.

Team 9 - Le'Veon, DJM I guess. He also has Deshaun Watson, Ertz, and Ekeler.

Oh yeah, let's talk about Ekeler. I am downgrading him a ton without Mr. Rivers. But he will have an ADP of top 30. Mark it down.

In sum, even if I keep Lamar, there will still be a lot out there for me to grab in the first few rounds. Anyone seen that Balt schedule? It's real solid. Based on the 2019 win percentages, Balt has the easiest schedule for 2020. And that's even with KC and NE on the schedule. The only other 2019 playoff teams are Philly, Hou, and Tenn, and it's not like those teams are amazing, especially on the defensive side.

For the playoffs, they'd be on the road in Clev for MNF, at home against the Jags likely out of playoff contention, at home against the Giants likely out of playoff contention.

It does suck that they get Cincy in week 17 for the second go around.

Thoughts? Tell me I'm crazy.

been working on my bestball rankings for this year and finally "scraped" my yahoo results, made an excel sheet to do all the work if anyone wants a copy pm me your email



had 5k budgeted for this but yahoo cut me off after 50 contests

this year I'm going to try to get 50x $50, it could be lolsample size but the $100 drafts felt more competitive as i did them and results seem to back that up as well, they later added $250 and I believe $500 but by then I'd already been locked out

should also note the $100 entries were done later so there were fewer "omg my backup shares a bye with the starter" type of mistakes i was making early on in the training wheels $1 drafts

currently comparing my projections vs adp to actual results to get the rsquared and will post to a blog that i'm not allowed to share here out of fear of getting banned

hoping to get my projections for next year out this week

i wouldn't worry too much about the schedule to be honest, not even sure if they'll play a full season, really tough to keep 50+ guys and staff all covid free

i'm not big on keeping QBs personally but understand you doing it

Dont get cute. Keep Chubb or Evans.

Yeah, under normal circumstances I'm not big on keeping QBs, but I think Lamar will do exactly what he did last year. I don't really see many reasons why he will regress, and actually, he should get better. Especially with Hollywood having a year under his belt.

COVID is definitely a concern, but all I'll be able to do is draft with the information available at the time. So schedule isn't a big factor, but Baltimore's is still juicy haha.

My problem is that I don't really want Chubb, Evans, or Fournette. At least not for top 20 worthy players.

Chubb - The Hunt factor is too much for me to ignore in a PPR league.

8 game per game basis pre-Hunt: 19.25 carries, 100.38 yards rushing, 4 targets, 3.13 catches, 20.13 yards receiving, 6 total TDs.

8 game per game basis post-Hunt: 18 carries, 86.38 yards rushing, 2.13 targets, 1.38 catches, 14.63 yards receiving, 2 total TDs.

Hunt's per game production: 5.38 carries, 22.25 yards rushing, 5.5 targets, 4.63 catches, 35.63 yards receiving, 3 total TDs.

Chubb is a great back, and he is going to crush first and second down. They are going to feed him on the ground. He is going to be great in standard. I don't think he is a top 2 round pick in PPR.

Evans - Man, he could go Moss on the league. Or he could just be average. There are so many weapons in Tampa, how long will Brady hold, what will the new offense be like, etc? There are too many uncertainties here.

Fournette - I had such high hopes last year. And honestly, he still performed pretty well by really increasing his receiving load. That saved his season in PPR. But ****, he couldn't get into the endzone (which was definitely contributed to some bad variance), his rushing totals left a lot to be desired, and the Jags just aren't a good football team.

But I actually have Fournette ahead of Chubb because Fournette is guaranteed 3 downs of work on almost every series. And Fournette will be playing for a contract.

I also slot Evans ahead of Chubb.

Even Kamara is a bit frustrating. His TD variance was annoying and Murray stole more of his work than I like. But I have to keep Kamara, especially in PPR. He's too good.

5 more rushing TDs last year and Fournette would have been RB2 behind only McCaffrey. Contract year. All he needs to do is run better in the redzone and he'll pop. He could easily lead the league in rushing this year. He's getting drafted way too low.

dude fournette has at least a 10% chance of getting cut before season starts

Why can't you both be right? Fournette is due for positive regression in the Red Zone. If he keeps up his volume, he should increase his TD rate and be a Top 10 RB.

compiled my draft projections vs actual results and compared to their ADP

to get actual results I just ranked players last year by total points, maybe not the best method because it will always make QB projections seem way off, but then i don't want to simply rank by how they did compared to their peers because there's a big difference between taking the 10th overall DST in the 12th round or the 10th overall DST in the 17th round

for guys who were just terrible busts, I capped them at 420 in actual results, it's far enough away to make it hurt the R^2 yet more realistic than figuring out where on the spectrum to place someone given that only a handful of fantasy points separating the guy ranked 357 and the guy ranked 862 on the year and furthermore, if the guy wasn't in the top 250 he wasn't helping you no matter what

again, appreciate any and all feedback on the methodology, especially since i'll be bloggin about this later in the week








if anyone has any suggestions please let me know, dfsx42 is what i blog under if you're confused by the legend

I’m rooting for him to get traded. Atlanta seems good.

Fournette is playing for a contract. He ran pretty bad last year on his gazillion red zone touches with 3 TDs. Got to think he's in line for some kind of positive regression.

Minshew should take a step forward in his development. He was pretty incredible considering he was just thrown to the wolves last year. 13 TDs and 2 INTs his first 8 games and then the offense went to ****. Hard to blame a rookie 6th round QB for that. If their OL can stay together it should be a little better than middle of the pack.

I'm pretty confident barring injury Fournette is in line for a career year and everybody hates him.

That equals buy buy buy imo.....