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2019 Fantasy Football General Thread 2019 Fantasy Football General Thread

08-23-2019 , 11:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
What’s the strategy if you are sitting at #7.
Draft Julio, Zeke, Conner, or Chubb?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
Gordon... no he's just another RB1, there's nothing all that special about him. He was a borderline first rounder to begin with

You can get Gordon at value and it won't be really any different than reaching a few picks early to take Kerryon Johnson and see him be worth the grab (not an endorsement of him, just an example)

Elliot also the 17th highest scoring player last year, behind someone like Cousins who can be had as a backup QB late in the draft

what i'm saying is that draft value in football has a lot more to do with positional scarcity than actual value - so for these guys, it's much more about the risk of them not playing than them playing at roughly around where they should be drafted anyway

Last year you had Gurley, Saqon, CMC, Kamara & Elliot - they were all leaps and bounds ahead of the next group - which Gordon didn't belong - he got about 2/3 the points of Saquon or Gurley...

Elliot I think has that 1/3 more points than another RB type skill worth taking the gamble on, factor in his owner is someone i think will cave and i'll take him somewhere in the 2nd round, gordon, i'm not touching him until 3rd or more likely 4th or 5th round before i'll risk a 0 from him

i also had a lot of leveon last year thinking it would blow over... so that's clearly a bias of mine
If Gordon is signed, isn't he RB5? His opportunity is something special. Positional scarcity matters heavilly, but within that is opportunity
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08-23-2019 , 12:09 PM
lol @ lumping QBs into the pool when ranking total scoring by RB/WR/TE.
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08-23-2019 , 12:22 PM
i didn't, i also pointed out he got about 250 points in standard scoring whereas Saquon/Gurley got 350 - that's a huge gap

Gordon's 250 vs 230 or 220 from any other RB that can be had where you'd take Gordon isn't really that big a difference, at least not enough to make taking the risk worth it

I also specified that obviously positional scarcity matters, i feel like your comment is unfair and you clearly didn't read what I wrote

the mentioning of points was to emphasize that draft position has very little to do with actual production - thus you are much less concerned with "what if he's better than Fournette" because if it's all about points and not game theory you'd just take Mahomes there anyway

if you look at both last year's points, this year's projections and then ADP, you'd be pretty shocked just inconsistent they are - wildly so

I just wanted to say that there's enough variance in point totals from all over the draft that if zeke/gordon do play a full season, it really doesn't matter where they get drafted, it's not going to break the league

some of the highest scoring players this year will be undrafted and it's extremely likely your league winner will be the team who has this year's robbie anderson and damien williams

a first round player going in the 4th round is hardly league breaking

whether you take zeke or gordon at whichever spot is your personal choice but don't be afraid of letting him slip to someone else and it thus breaking the league
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08-23-2019 , 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by D-Beat
Draft Julio, Zeke, Conner, or Chubb?



If Gordon is signed, isn't he RB5? His opportunity is something special. Positional scarcity matters heavilly, but within that is opportunity
I'd personally put him behind DJ and around the Bell/Mixon/Conners area - definitely good but any number of backs drafted after this crew could easily outperform him, he wasn't all that special last year and will likely have a smaller role anyway with that deep rotation behind him and healthier receiving corps
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08-23-2019 , 12:44 PM
What? Gordon is easily the 5th back if he was going to be out there week 1, and he could outperform any of the other 4 ahead of him.

Are you paying attention to the fact he only played 12 games last year?

Over 16 games, his numbers extrapolate to 1,850 all purpose yards, 65 catches and 19 TDs.
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08-23-2019 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
This year is going to be so ****ed. Gordon or Zeke go in rounds 3 or 4 and then that person wins the league if they come back. So what do you do? What’s the strategy if you are sitting at #7.
That is really overstating the impact.

Did everyone who got james conner in round 12 win the league last year? some round 3 RB ends up top 5 overall all the time.

I think 7 is a fine spot. Top 5 RBs seem pretty clear since it looks like zeke is back, but then youve got chubb/hopkins/adams/julio/beckham all very solid picks then someone like kelce/juju/tyreek/cook/mixon on the way back. could really go anywhere with it.
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08-23-2019 , 06:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dkgojackets
That is really overstating the impact.

Did everyone who got james conner in round 12 win the league last year? some round 3 RB ends up top 5 overall all the time.

I think 7 is a fine spot. Top 5 RBs seem pretty clear since it looks like zeke is back, but then youve got chubb/hopkins/adams/julio/beckham all very solid picks then someone like kelce/juju/tyreek/cook/mixon on the way back. could really go anywhere with it.
+1 to bolded. I was in a league where I drafted Conner really late and I didn't even make the playoffs. Lot's of variance in FF. These holdouts barely move the needle.
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08-23-2019 , 07:24 PM
Yup, plus Zeke is never going in round 3 or 4. It’ll be early 2nd at worse, and most people are still taking him in the 1st.

Gordon will probably drop to the mid 20s at worse.
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08-23-2019 , 09:49 PM
I inherited a team in the POG dynasty league last year and finished 2nd. Conners was integral.

lol I tried to trade him early on to the team that had Le'Veon for Deshaun Watson. Glad that didn't happen
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08-23-2019 , 10:31 PM
Can we stop calling him Conners?
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08-24-2019 , 12:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bahbahmickey
I'm joining a 10 team auction keeper league and so is another guy. Instead of us both being assigned one of the abandoned teams we are doing a 2 man snake draft for the players. Below are the players that we will choose from in the order I think they should be in (keeper price in parenthesis). You can keep as many keepers as you want.

1qb, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 flex (rb/wr/te), 0 TE, 1 OP (qb/rb/wr/te), 1 def
9 bench spots

4 pts for pass TD & -2 for interception
.2 rushing attempt (all player positions)
2 pts for 400 yds pass or 100 yds receiving
3 pts for over 200 yds receiving (over 200 yds rec is a total of 5 bonus pts on top of .1 per yard)
4 pts for over 100 rush yds
6 pts for over 200 rush yds (over 200 yds rush is a total of 10 bonus pts on top of .1 per yard)

James Conner 20
Nick Chubb 14
Deshaun Watson 10
Lamar Jackson 7
Mitch Trubisky 3
Saquon Barkley 85
Jared Goff 6
Sony Michel 11
Sam Darnold 1
Philip Rivers 9
Mike Williams 5
Dion Lewis 3
Sammy Watkins 11
D.J. Moore 14
Calvin Ridley 16
Dede Westbrook 3
John Brown 1
Curtis Samuel 4
Jimmy Garoppolo 15
Draft so far:

Villain: Conner 20
Hero: Watson 10
H: Chubb 14
V: saquon 85
V: Lamar Jackson 7
H: Goff 6
H: Michel 11

It’s his turn as we are taking turns drafting 2 players at a time. Knowing I have Watson, Goff, Chubb and Michel so far for a total of $41 (out of $250 draft budget) how do you rank the following (my current order with their keeper price):


Mitch Trubisky 3
Sam Darnold 1
D.J. Moore 14
Calvin Ridley 16
Sammy Watkins 11
Philip Rivers 9
John Brown 1
Ravens Def 1
Jimmy Garoppolo 15
Rams Def 4

With 9 bench spots should I bother drafting 4 QBs if I can get 2 of Trubisky, darnold or Rivers? Please note I removed the 5 players I can’t draft because of a rule about keepers (can only keep 1 player his 3rd year as a keeper). Garoppolo & Rams Def aren’t keepable at their prices?

Last edited by bahbahmickey; 08-24-2019 at 12:53 AM.
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08-24-2019 , 01:30 AM
I don't think Watkins should even be on that list, he was terrible last year and advanced metrics back it up

truly think he got some fluky stats, hence why teams happily traded him off twice and then he wound up disappearing in KC

would definitely prefer John Brown, a QB3 or one of those elite defenses over him
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08-24-2019 , 02:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheels2222
What? Gordon is easily the 5th back if he was going to be out there week 1, and he could outperform any of the other 4 ahead of him.

Are you paying attention to the fact he only played 12 games last year?

Over 16 games, his numbers extrapolate to 1,850 all purpose yards, 65 catches and 19 TDs.
yes, i'm accounting for the 12 games, i also think it's unfair to extrapolate like how you did. You both rounded up and used an average despite that the overwhelming amount of his production was concentrated in a handful of games. He only eclipsed 100 rushing yards 3 times. He had more games of >50 than those with. Likewise, with receiving, he only had 5 games of 5 or more targets and the

before any of the news broke I had him as RB6 between DJ and Bell, he has a much, much harder schedule than DJ and Bell and shouldn't have his dominant lead back

most of his production came from his insane amount of touches and the Chargers went 4-0 in the games he missed - further giving them little incentive to believe he makes that big an impact on the team

even if he gets signed today and makes peace, he's probably going to be in that same spot or even worse now because it's evident the chargers firmly believe in their other RBs. He often got 85% of the touches last year, no chance of that happening this year. He's going to be good but nothing amazing because he's not going to get nearly the volume he did last year and you can't bank on him randomly having 2-3 amazing games to inflate his stats again
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08-24-2019 , 07:45 AM
How high should we be drafting Pollard and Darwin in 10 team 2qb?
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08-24-2019 , 08:01 AM
Are guys who aren't active eligible for the IR-slot on Yahoo? Specifically, I'm thinking of Zeke and Melly. Was LeVeon Bell IR-eligible last year?

Also, are suspended players IR-eligible? Specifically, Hunt, Herndon, etc.
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08-24-2019 , 08:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept24
Are guys who aren't active eligible for the IR-slot on Yahoo? Specifically, I'm thinking of Zeke and Melly. Was LeVeon Bell IR-eligible last year?

Also, are suspended players IR-eligible? Specifically, Hunt, Herndon, etc.


No
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08-24-2019 , 08:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
No
Thank you sir.
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08-24-2019 , 10:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
yes, i'm accounting for the 12 games, i also think it's unfair to extrapolate like how you did. You both rounded up and used an average despite that the overwhelming amount of his production was concentrated in a handful of games. He only eclipsed 100 rushing yards 3 times. He had more games of >50 than those with. Likewise, with receiving, he only had 5 games of 5 or more targets and the

before any of the news broke I had him as RB6 between DJ and Bell, he has a much, much harder schedule than DJ and Bell and shouldn't have his dominant lead back

most of his production came from his insane amount of touches and the Chargers went 4-0 in the games he missed - further giving them little incentive to believe he makes that big an impact on the team

even if he gets signed today and makes peace, he's probably going to be in that same spot or even worse now because it's evident the chargers firmly believe in their other RBs. He often got 85% of the touches last year, no chance of that happening this year. He's going to be good but nothing amazing because he's not going to get nearly the volume he did last year and you can't bank on him randomly having 2-3 amazing games to inflate his stats again
There are a lot of assumptions here, especially in that third paragraph. Also, I rounded up by 17 yards and 1/3rd of a TD so lol at that comment. I actually rounded down by slightly more than 1 reception! A lot of fantasy production for most guys comes from a few games. Rarely are there guys hitting their average on a week to week basis. At the end of the day, 16 games is a small sample.

He gets the Raiders twice, the Chiefs twice, the Broncos twice, the Dolphins, the Lions, and the Titans. All of which either had a suspect defense, a bad team overall, or both last season. Sure, he has to play the Bears, Texans and Jags, but the Chargers will be one of the best overall teams in the league. Especially compared to the Jets and Cardinals. Not to mention, as we’ve all learned, comparing team unit performance year to year can be a futile exercise.

While he only had >100 rushing yards in 3 of 12 games, still 25%, he had 7 of 12 games over 100 yards total. He scored at least 1 TD in 9 of 12 games total. So if a handful means >50%, I’ve been using that term wrong.

I just don’t see what evidence you have that the Chargers would prefer to put Ekeler and Jackson out there over Gordon. Those guys played because they had to. Gordon is the back, especially if he gets a new contract.

If Gordon was guaranteed to be there week 1, there is no question he’s above DJ and Bell.

It’s also funny how high you are on DJ given what he was last year. Sure, the Cardinals have a new coach and a new QB, but there really is no evidence that DJ is going to be this monster that a lot on here believe. What else did the Cardinals improve? I still think he will be much closer to last year than 2016. And last year still wasn’t that bad for DJ, but Gordon is in a much better situation. I just don’t see DJ being the 5th best back, which is where he’s being drafted. DJ only went over 100 yards rushing once in 16 games and over 100 yards total in 5 of 16 games. He scored at least one TD in 8 games. Gordon did more in 12 than DJ did in 16.

But we can argue in circles all day long. Good luck.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 08-24-2019 at 10:48 AM.
2019 Fantasy Football General Thread Quote
08-24-2019 , 10:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
No
Yup, this is the toughest part about taking a chance on suspended/hold out guys. They just sit there on the bench.
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08-24-2019 , 12:35 PM
Tarheels, how about we bet $1

If he averages 125 all purpose yards per game you win
100-125 = push
<100 = I win

Doesn't play, also a push
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08-24-2019 , 12:53 PM
who has the best ppr 2qb cheat sheet i can print out for my live draft?
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08-24-2019 , 01:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cannabusto
How high should we be drafting Pollard and Darwin in 10 team 2qb?
Depends on how deep your bench is? I doubt either gets drafted in my 10 team 2 QB unless in Pollards case Zeke continues to hold out. But we only have 5 bench spots.
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08-24-2019 , 02:46 PM
Made two trades so far during my dynasty rookie draft, half-PPR, 4 pt passing TD.

1) 1.8, Tevin and Landry for projected early 2020 1st.
He had the worst team last season, and the core of his team is Jimmy G, D Freeman, Tevin, Landry, Harry, Deebo.

2) Mahomes and my team-earned 2020 1st for Julio and Wentz.
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08-24-2019 , 05:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomHimself
who has the best ppr 2qb cheat sheet i can print out for my live draft?

These are decent for when you need that last-minute/minimal-research list. For a 2QB league, most live drafters will be taking QBs higher/earlier than these ranks suggest though. GL.

https://footballabsurdity.com/beersheet-request-form/


https://footballabsurdity.com//wp-co...1,-2,0,0,0.pdf
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08-24-2019 , 06:08 PM
awesome thanks!
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