2018 Fantasy Football General Thread - Page 68 - Fantasy Sports -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

I think the argument isn't that Thielen is superior, but that the two players have roughly equal value even though Thielen's perceived value is much less and that this gap in real vs perceived value can be taken advantage of.

the biggest thing going for Theilin is a solid team with good tech

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09-22-2018 , 02:11 PM

#1677

Wheatsauce

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Quote:

Originally Posted by waterwolves

Hmmmmm yeah **** it I'm down. Just fun money though so $50 and I'm up 1 already right?

$50 is fine, and ROS means rest of season, which is all that matters at this point and for the discussion that was happening. If that's cool, then booked.

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09-22-2018 , 02:19 PM

#1678

waterwolves

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Wheatsauce

$50 is fine, and ROS means rest of season, which is all that matters at this point and for the discussion that was happening. If that's cool, then booked.

I think it's close to 50/50 Thielen will have more TD's at the end of the season than Julio Jones. So that's what I'm interested in betting.

The fact that you're fighting for 1 TD is kind of my point. It's real close.........

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09-22-2018 , 02:22 PM

#1679

cs3

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Originally Posted by waterwolves

PFF preseason rankings

#25

Spoiler:

That's not even a legitimate knock on PFF and in no way discredits their rating of Goff. He had done literally nothing in the NFL prior to this year.
They currently have him ranked #2 in the NFL, so they adjusted immediately to his actual production... while Goff is still down down in the bottom half of the NFL.

If you can pick any QB to to start for your NFL team tor the next 3 years, which of these guys are you taking Goff over?

Wentz
Wilson
Cam
Luck
Cousins
Garoppolo
Mahomes
Darnold
Mayfield

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09-22-2018 , 02:25 PM

#1680

Wheatsauce

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Quote:

Originally Posted by waterwolves

And I was interested in betting what we were actually discussing, which is what will happen from here on out. If you want to bet on that, then let me know. I'm not interested in betting on what has already happened. Like I said, if you want extra value, then I'm sure you can find a better price somewhere.

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09-22-2018 , 02:30 PM

#1681

waterwolves

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Originally Posted by cs3

It's kind of a trick question. Next three years?

In Goff's situation now I think he'll outscore most of that list over the next 3 years.

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09-22-2018 , 02:35 PM

#1682

waterwolves

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Originally Posted by Wheatsauce

Yeah you stated I would get odds on that bet somewhere else. So you thought Julio was a significant favorite but you don't want to front me one TD?

Ok bro we don't have to bet.

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09-22-2018 , 02:40 PM

#1683

cs3

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It's kind of a trick question. Next three years?

In Goff's situation now I think he'll outscore most of that list over the next 3 years

We weren't talking fantasy. You said "he's a top 5 QB in this league".

Its not a trick question. Goff is an unrestricted FA after the 2020 season (so in 3 years).
And I think 3 more years is a reasonable amount of time to tell whether a third QB is top 5 in the league.

And I didn't even list the 3 older QBs who are undoubtedly better right now - Rodgers, Brady, Brees

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09-22-2018 , 03:09 PM

#1684

Gaddy

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Quote:

Originally Posted by waterwolves

Adam Thielen is a top 3ish WR in the NFL. Maybe the best route runner in the NFL. Sticky hands. Cousins trusts him and loves him.

He's still undervalued because of his pedigree. He was undrafted. How could the NFL be so wrong? They were. He's a stud. Like trade Julio for Thielen + something you like. Thielen might outscore Julio by himself.

You sparked me to an idea. In a 3-player keeper league, I traded Julio (cannot be kept) and Lindsay (keep for 12th) for Thielen (7th) and Michel (5th). Kamara (9th) is a definite keeper, while I expect Thielen will be a second keeper and Michel will be in contention for the third spot.

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09-22-2018 , 03:39 PM

#1685

waterwolves

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Originally Posted by cs3

Ok so if I'm in the FF forum and say Goff is a top 5 QB just assume I'm talking FF. I play mostly dynasty so when I'm posting stuff I'm kind of thinking out loud.

So let me try to clarify. For dynasty FF Goff is a top 5 QB right now. Like I wouldn't draft 5 other QB in front of him in a dynasty start up draft today.

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09-22-2018 , 03:49 PM

#1686

waterwolves

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It's hard to say where Goff would be without McVay. Like could he be this good in another system? He kind of reminds me of Tom Brady. Would Tom Brady be as good if he had been a Cleveland Brown with a different coach and offensive system?

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09-22-2018 , 03:49 PM

#1687

Wheatsauce

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Originally Posted by waterwolves

Yeah you stated I would get odds on that bet somewhere else. So you thought Julio was a significant favorite but you don't want to front me one TD?

Ok bro we don't have to bet.

C’mon my man, you’re smarter than that. Yes I think you can get odds somewhere. That indicates that I believe the market has Julio as a favorite, not that I have him as a significant favorite. I offered a bet at evens, since you seem to think the last 28 games is more indicative of what will happen in the next 14 than I do and I was willing to back up saying that using TDs in an argument for Theilen was silly, that’s all. If I wanted to be a significant favorite on something you said here, I’d be trying to bet you on Theilen being a top 3 wr

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09-22-2018 , 03:57 PM

#1688

waterwolves

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Originally Posted by Wheatsauce

Meh my statements were meant to just open peoples eyes to a possible sell high/buy low opportunity. It seemed like you thought Julio was a big favorite to score more TDs than Thielen. Thielen is up 1 right now and I think he's 50/50 or a slight favorite to catch more TDs this season. That's all.

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09-22-2018 , 07:54 PM

#1689

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I'm not feeling Lockett so far this year. Baldwin out and he's only got 11 targets. He's a talent and Wilson is a talent but I hate this Brian Schottenheimer offense.

I'm a seller on Lockett right now. Would snap trade Lockett for Goodwin or Woods right now.

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09-22-2018 , 08:18 PM

#1690

waterwolves

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The Rams situation is working out just like I thought.

Woods will lead the team in targets.
Cooks will lead the team in yards and TDs
Kupp is the odd man out.

Cooks is working even better than I thought with Goff but it shouldn't be surprising. The Rams are using Cooks perfectly and Cooks and Goff are elite.

McVay is the BB of our time.

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09-22-2018 , 09:24 PM

#1691

cs3

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Kupp has 11 catches on 15 targets through 2 games, and seems to be Goff's favorite red zone target. He has more catches and fantasy points than Woods, and only 3 fewer targets overall.
I don't think Id call Kupp the odd man out, but maybe Woods is slightly better in non-PPR.

Agree on Cooks. He looks great.
Trying to acquire him in several leagues and having zero luck so far.

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09-22-2018 , 09:32 PM

#1692

waterwolves

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Originally Posted by cs3

I would just ask you to watch the tape on the targets Woods didn't catch. There's some juicy high value targets that Goff is going to hit Woods on. Kupp is good but unfortunately he's not as good as Cooks and Woods imo.

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09-22-2018 , 09:51 PM

#1693

cs3

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Fortunately he doesn't have to be in order to have solid fantasy value

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09-23-2018 , 10:21 AM

#1694

Francis_MH

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Doesn't Kupp's value go up (especially in ppr leagues) when they are playing closer games against better defenses where they are in more critical 3rd and 5 type situations? Seems like this is where Kupp will see a spike in targets. Maybe I'm stereotyping him as the quick, white slot guy though when he's 6'2".