Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatsauce
Have only done some preliminary research so far, but some initial thoughts about your ranks:
I would have Zeke lower (I have him 4, but I know that is lower than most, so I'm prob wrong).
With you on OBJ and Kelce and also Kittle>Ertz.
Want nothing to do with Gurley at this point (yeah due to his recurring knee issues that team was clearly lying about the seriousness of last year and so many good options at RB in first couple rounds).
Not worried about Hunt, Chubb is a beast. Nowhere near as high as you on A. Jones, but I get it. Bell and Conner are guys that I'm really not sure on one way or the other at this point. Maybe preseason will alleviate/clarify some concerns?
Damien Williams seems to be way underrated.
I'm all about Juju and to a lesser extent Dalvin though, both seem primed for big seasons to me, especially Juju. And yeah, I doubt I'll be considering taking AB as high as he'll end up going. Think TY is gonna go off too.
Everyone seems to be sooo down on Fournette that I'll prob end up with a good amount of shares and then be dissapointed and wonder why the f I ever picked him.
One thing I've noticed, but haven't dug into the ramifications of too much, is that there is a huge dropoff in WR after the top 15 imo, so missing out on getting one of those guys by going RB/TE/RB or some such combo makes your WR spot super suspect in 3 wr setups. Having someone like Lockett or Golladay as your WR1 just feels super dirty.
Who do you have above Zeke? CMC, Kamara and Barkley?
I just love Zeke's workhorse mentality, and I'm a huge believer. I think the Cowboys are going to have a solid squad next year and be ahead in a lot of games. I also really like that he bumped his receptions to 77 and targets to 95 last year. I'd be happy to have any of the top 5-6 backs, but I just have Zeke slightly ahead of the others. He has also stayed pretty damn healthy in his first 3 seasons.
Kamara - This is the only guy I'd be willing to consider putting above Zeke. My main concern is how will he do as THE guy for the entire season. He crushed as the only back in the first 4 games last year, but can he stay healthy? Also, you have to think Brees will start to fall off at some point. Is this the year? And can Kamara keep up his insane TD percentage? He scored 14 touchdowns on 194 rushes last year.
CMC - Can he keep it up? I have to imagine the Panthers are going to try to take a little more of the workload off of him. I'm pretty sure he saw the highest percentage of offensive snaps of any other back in the league. Also, I still think CMC is going to get a lot of targets and catches, but I believe his stats are a bit inflated. I'm not exactly sure when Cam got injured and lost his groove, but based off of the stats and team performance, I'd say it was around game 9. His shoulder was in bad shape, so CMC was getting a lot of dump offs because that was the best throw Cam could make. He just wasn't getting it downfield. From game 9 through game 15 (CMC hardly played game 16), CMC averaged 8.1 catches on 9.3 targets per game. Game 15 was also a game with our terrible backup QBs playing, and CMC got 12 catches on 13 targets. But even if you only look at games 9 to 14, which injured Cam played all, CMC averaged 7.45 catches on 9.3 targets per game. Games 1 through 8, CMC averaged 6.75 catches on 7.25 targets per game. Game 2, he had 14 catches on 15 targets, so if we remove that game then the other games net 5 catches on 6.1 targets per game, which I think is closer to what we will see. I'm cherry picking a little bit, but I just don't think CMC quite gets to where we was last year. I still think he's a top 5 back, but this is why I can't put him at 1.
Barkley - I don't have much to say here other than Eli, no Odell, and a really bad offense. He will get a ton of touches, it's just a matter of how much he will be able to do with them. The Giants will also likely be behind a lot, which will help Barkley's catches but it'll hurt his rushes. The above reasons are why I have him behind the other 3. And honestly, DJ might have a better season thank Barkley, as well. But Barkley is fringe top 5, and definitely in the top 10.
I agree, Kittle is above Ertz. However, Ertz is still solidly the third TE even with Goedert there.
Gurley's knee is definitely a big concern, and he is a little bit more of a risk than the other guys at the top. However, he still has #1 back potential. Especially on that Rams offense and with how often he gets into the endzone. Gurley is also still only 24 years old, so hopefully the knee can get back to 100%.
Chubb is definitely a beast, and I definitely think he is better than Hunt. But I'm concerned about a committee approach, especially in an effort to keep both guys fresher. Barring a lot of injuries, the Browns will be in the playoff hunt. I don't want my second round pick to be thrust into a committee for the second half of the season/playoff run. Hunt is still a really good player, and they didn't sign him as injury depth. He will play.
I really do love A. Jones, especially with fat Mike officially gone. I'm definitely unsure on Bell/Connor, and usually my strategy in the top 3-4 rounds is that if I am unsure then I'll find a better spot. So I doubt either of these guys will be on my teams.
I think the main reason that Damien is underrated is that there is a big unknown on how many of the snaps he will get. Definitely worth the risk given how Andy Reid rides his top backs. Damien definitely showed some flashes last year.
My biggest concern about JuJu is how will he be as THE guy. The WRs behind JuJu leave a lot to be desired. I guess Moncrief is the second WR, so, yeah. JuJu is going to see a lot of double coverage and safety help over the top. Things are going to be a lot tougher without AB on the other side of the field. I just don't like him at his projected ADP.
I agree on AB, his ADP will definitely be too high. He will get taken ahead of guys like Evans, Hilton, Allen, Diggs, Thielen, etc. just based on name alone.
I like Hilton a lot, and I have him as my 6th receiver behind Thomas.
Good luck with Fournette if you take him, but I am not taking him at his ADP. He could ball out, but the dude just lacks discipline and intelligence. Foles at QB could help, though. And you'd like to think their defense will be better. Last season was a weird year for the Jags.
I'm in two re-draft leagues that are 8 man and 10 man, so I should be able to get a solid WR in round 3 if I go RB/TE in rounds 1 and 2. If Kelce is gone, then I'll probably go WR in round 2. I'm hoping to get Kelce in at least one of those leagues. Definitely a big dropoff in WR after the top 15, and I certainly don't want Lockett or Golladay as WR1. I also don't want A.J. Green, and his ADP will be too high.
And it's tough to say Woods is underrated, but I've seen him at the end of round 4, early round 5 in most rankings. I'd say he's closer to 3rd round potential, but I may be higher on him than most. I probably put Woods at around the 13th to 14th best receiver. I like him more than Cooks and Kupp, and I definitely won't be touching Kupp coming off of that ACL.
Oh, and Mahomes's ADP will no doubt be too high. I still like him as a top 5 QB, but certainly not in the third round, which is where I expect his ADP to fall. I do like Baker a lot, but I probably won't get him as I will likely stick to my QB strategy of taking a QB after round 10 or even finding guys on the waiver early on.
One other guy I didn't mention is Tyreek. I really don't know how to feel about him. When he plays, he is a top 5 guy, but he may miss 2/3rds of the fantasy regular season. It would be tough to take him and have to sit on him for that long. If he's not suspended at all, then I probably have him at the end of the first, top of the second round.
Anyways, I know that's a lot, but it's fun to start talking about fantasy now. The season is only 2 months away!