Steamer projections are out (at least some of them), so let's get started.

I'm doing some mock drafts on http://www.couchmanagers.com/ right now.

Initial thoughts going into 2018 season:

HRs are way up - so speed becomes more valuable. I am going to place a high value on guys who can steal 15 bases or more, as there should be a lot of power available late in the draft.

Pitching is changing. Starting pitchers are going less and less into games, and bullpen long relievers are becoming more and more common. Especially if you are playing in a league with QS as a category, its going to be critical to snag a couple of aces early.

Here's an attempt at an early 5x5 w/ OBP top 10

1. Trout
2. Goldschmidt
3. Altuve
4. Blackmon
5. Turner
6. Harper
7. Votto
8. Arenado
9. Kershaw
10. Betts

really excited for Otani to come over next year, will be interesting to see how high he goes (will he be mainly a SP? OF/DH? both?) and how his stats will work/positions he'll be eligible at

I heard that CBS might split him into 2 different players. I think that's silly.

Here is a link to the first mock I completed.

http://www.couchmanagers.com/mock_dr...draftnum=40834

Yes, they're saying CBS will supposedly split him into 2 players, but Yahoo will likely make him SP/OF. They've said if Babe Ruth was in system he'd be eligible like that, with only getting pitching stats when put in SP, and only batting stats when put in OF. Will be interesting to see if that's how it goes, not sure how it will be to evaluate how good that'd make him.

If he does get SP/OF and he he provides any positive value with the bat whatsoever, he will be a top 25 player.

Our end-of-season meeting for one of my leagues is tomorrow and Otani is one of the subjects of discussion. I think OF/P is the right way to go for now. I also think he'll be way more interesting as an on-field player than a fantasy player unless he's a full-time starting pitcher.

It just depends how the site handles it imo, but think OF/P is right way, we dont even know if he'll bat regularly here yet, or how he'll handle it. He'll definitely be a full time SP though

Outside The Park Baseball 2018 is on Humble Bundle deal.

https://www.humblebundle.com/strategy-sim-bundle

I have not played it before but heard good things about it. Picked if up for $1.

Have a hard time keeping Stanton out of the first round. Also I think this is the year Correa goes off (he basically already did, just got injured).

I have both Stanton and Correa above Turner and and Betts.

First NFBC draft started running this weekend (at least these dudes put up real money so I guess it counts for something). These are 50 round, draft-and-hold all season with standard 5x5.

Kershaw, Trout, Goldschmidt, Altuve, Turner, Arenado, Scherzer, Correa, Kluber, Strasburg, Sale, Harper, Betts, Judge, Blackmon

1 - Kershaw #1 is totally defensible and I can't really crap on anyone taking a pitcher too much, but Strasburg .. meh. Especially over the four bats that went after him.
2 - Blackmon at the end of the first is amazing.
3 - I'm probably too much anti-Judge but I'd be curious why one would take him over Stanton if both are available.

Also this is nuts as to the depth of the first few rounds. Stanton, Machado, Bryant, Rizzo, Donaldson, Lindor, Springer, J Ramirez, Votto, JDM .. all slipping to 2nd+ round in a 15-team league.

I know its relative given the tick up in offense but still, that's pretty solid

Yeah man Betts with a Stanton/Machado/Bryant or Springer would be an absurd start, then again Trout or Goldy with Votto might be even more absurd. Also, If Stras is a top 10 pick Kershaw is a lock @1 (not that i'm saying he needs to be taken there, but if Stras is a 10 you can't pick it apart in any way).

Where do you guys like Jose Ramirez? Legit 2nd rounder?

Think a lot more fall in NFBC type drafts due to pitching going higher, but definitely a lot more top tier bats now.

Right now I don't think I have Ramirez in 2nd round, probably 3rd, and expect to be in minority

I think Jose Ramirez is worthy of a top 25 pick especially in leagues that use batting average. FG auction calculator is saying he's a top 20-25 bat (depending on the settings you use) based on a .295 20/20 90/90 projection which seems reasonable enough. The 2B/3B is pretty nice too

Based on the early mocks that looks to be the cost.

Also if you are in a league that uses SLG or some form of ISO he is even more $$ since he is an XBH god.

Where can we view the NFBC ADPs? All i can find is 2017 data.

Not sure you can yet, heard the guy who helps run the NFBC's say he'll have ADP's in a week or 2, but that atm they're redoing stuff sitewise. (Also, Otani is SP only in NFBC fyi)

Yeah Greg Ambrosius (who runs the NFBC, or maybe co-runs .. whatever) posted the first round on the NFBC message board of that draft. Not an ADP it was just that one draft.

He later said 17 of the first 47 picks were pitchers, including a couple closers.

no idea where to put Stanton or Ohtani now

I dont see how Stanton isn't a mid 1st rounder.
For Ohtani a lot still depends on 1) how the Angels plan to use him as a hitter, and 2) how the fantasy platforms deal with his eligibility.

Yeah my first inclination is it's probably never too early for either of them

Stanton in that lineup? Yeah his counting stats are going to be through the roof. I think you gotta boost Gardner/Gregorious/Bird a round or so from wherever you had them before too

I play in mostly weekly leagues and am generally staying away from Ohtani. Weekly format makes him basically worthless as a hitter assuming hes under 400 PA or so. Daily lineups make him much more interesting

The real question as it relates to Stanton is how high are you taking Judge and Sanchez now

Completely ignoring health concerns my impulse is to say 2. Stanton cuz ldo, the problem is power isn’t that big a premium where even if he hits 60+ it provides you with great value (weird as it is to say). I’ll still take altuve kershaw and goldy over him and probably bro. Mid 1st sounds right

Judge though is likely to be a late 1st, Sanchez probably early 2nd. Both seem insane (although Sanchez probably less so).