this chatwood line is hilarious

6 walks but got through 6 since basically all them were 4 pitch walks

thoughts on Mahle? looked really impressive, thinking of adding him everywhere

Beat: set my lineups according to the schedule, which didn't have the Yankees/Rays game today because they were supposed to be off today. They played the makeup from yesterday's game today

So Didi Gregorius went 4/4, 3 R, 2 HR, and 8 RBI on my bench today

Ouch man

Sent from my SM-G935T using 2+2 Forums

Might be nothing but also might be time to sell Kenley Jansen while owners are willing to pay full price.
Probably wouldn't hurt to pick up Fields just to see if it turns out to be injury related.

It's probably nothing, but,

This is why you don't spend 3rd round picks on closers, and wait for the Keone Kela's and Brad Boxberger's and Hunter Strickland's of the world to emerge for a 20th round pick

But mr baseball told me so!!!!

Not that that article isn’t true, but also the previous 2 batters who drew walks off Kenley were on 3-2 counts and were both really close pitches that could have been called strikes.

Because we are 4 games into the season and we haven't seen where things finish or how bad scrub closers will effect your ratios. But 3rd pick is too soon even for me. 5th is when I start taking them but to each his own. I never said my strategy was right for anyone other than me. For me it works well because I almost always cash. Lots of early round hitters haven't done dick. Are you cutting them loose for Matt Davidson? Plus I got me more than a few shares of Kela and Boxberger.

Actually what I told you was to stop being an immature internet troll.

not sure how hes only 5% owned on ESPN, but barrclough should become the closer soon enough. came in to a tied game at home in the 9th last night before ziegler, who stinks anyway.

granted, the marlins may only win 50 games this year, but still.

nah kyle will stay doing what he does.... hes too valuable to them in that role and would pitch way less innings as the closer because the marlins stink (think archie bradley or addisson reed).

i'd think they'd go to someone like steckenrider in the event they wanted to make a switch, which i don't think they will any time soon.

Didn't see a trade thread, but got offered:

Scherzer, Kris Bryant, and Brandon Belt
for
JDM, Donaldson, and Greinke

Standard Yahoo Pro set up. Worth or nah? Don't have a replacement for JDM much better than Belt on my roster currently fwiw. Seems like a lot to give up, but damn Scherzer and Bryant are tempting...and I'm not sure how worried to be about Donaldson's shoulder. Any help/thoughts greatly appreciated.

I wouldn't do it unless he took a pitcher comparable to Belt's value instead of Greinke.

Ok...am I misjudging the difference between Scherzer/Bryant and JDM/Donaldson then? I was under the impression that part was a solid win for me, not basically a wash as you seem to be suggesting. Lol pitching?

Curious to know what people think about the following rant:

The easiest way to come up with player values is to project a static set of stats, assume 100% certainty in achieving the projection, and then derive a value. As best I can tell, this is what every tout does. I'm not sure whether HQ and BP do the exercise correctly, but they probably get close. For those who play poker, this is similar to putting your opponent on his most likely hand, and designing an optimal strategy against that specific hand. It's not simple to model, especially for beginners, but you can do it without too much effort.

Like opponents in poker, baseball players have a range of outcomes (hands), not just a mean or median outcome (hand). Proper valuation should be based on the entire range of outcomes (hands), not the mean or median. HQ and BP seem to be only vaguely aware of this issue. HQ assigns health grades and reliability grades, but it is not clear how, if at all, they factor into HQ's player values. Shandler also has talked for a few years about his Mayberry method, which basically amounts to disregarding minor differences in player projections. (That's an illogical solution to the problem but at least demonstrates awareness that values should correlate to a range of outcomes.) BP's player cards purport to show projections for the top 0-10% of the possible range, top 10-20% of the possible range, etc. I doubt that there is much science behind those ranges and I don't see how, if at all, they are included in BP's valuation projections. In sum, at best, BP and HQ seem to arrive at values based on some projection of the mean production for a particular player.

The range of outcomes is different (i.e. broader) and less predictable for certain stat categories than it is for others. This is due to two factors. First, some stat categories (wins, for example) are more influenced by chance than others. Second, some skills (not statistical results, but skills) presumably are harder to replicate year over year than others.

Variation in outcome among players is harder to address, but you can nibble on the edges rather easily. For example, the range of outcomes surely is broader for Luis Severino than it is for Max Scherzer, if only because of age and length of track record.

I suspect that most experienced fantasy players intuitively attempt to account for these issues, but I am aware of no serious effort to incorporate these issues into a player valuation model. I am not sure how the breadth of ranges would impact value. Common sense suggests that, if you have two players with the same mean outcomes, the player with the narrower range of outcomes should be worth more. Maybe that's correct, but maybe not. You need significant positive deviations from expectation in order to win a large competitive league. Put another way, maybe the answer depends on the strength of one's keeper list.

This sort of modeling would be beyond elementary for a Wall Street trading desk. They have been using probabilistic models for decades.

I think that's a lot of words

I'd take that deal. You're getting the 2 best players, and while I'd prefer a better piece than Belt, you're giving up the risk associated with all 3 players on your side.

Try countering by swapping Belt out for one of his OF. Belt is basically replacement level for 1b, not even owned in all 10- and 12-team leagues.

I'd do it just because I'm all in on Bryant. He hit 10 less HR than his MVP year, but his K% and BB% has made incremental gains every season. I think he could be a monster and once he turns into that, he'll be untouchable.

I have Myers/Cruz/Realmuto/Kinsler/Salazar on DL (and Holland not playing) in a YPL (5 man bench, 2DL). Is Kinsler fine to drop, or Realmuto, or just hold strong?

Sounds like a Monte Carlo simulation

I feel like this is where the wheels come off for you.

Also it doesn't sound like you watch or have ever watched baseball before?

Wheat,

fwiw here is what Steamer projections say those guys are worth. (Calculator was set up with YPro settings.)
Scherzer $46 + Bryant $29 + Belt $2 = $77
Greinke $27 + JDM $21 + Donaldson $24 = $73

If its roto then probably marginally worth it to get the huge pitching upgrade with Scherzer with the innings cap.
If its H2H I'd personally hang tight with what you have unless he gives a better piece than Belt or takes a worse SP than Greinke. You can easily make up the K's and ratio differential by streaming a few starts and rostering a high end MR or two.

FWIW those values take into account JDMs injury history, as they only project him for 530 PA while Bryant gets ~650.
If you give JDM 620ish PA's then youre looking at basically exactly the same value on each side of the trade.

Awesome, thanks man! It's roto btw, my bad for omitting that.

I think that's good advice, but the issues are that his hitting sucks (his OF/bench besides Belt is Brett Gardner/Manuel Margot/Billy Hamilton/Bradley Zimmer/Kole Calhoun), and given that he has 4 D-Backs on his roster already, I'm assuming Greinke is an important part of the deal for him, so I'm finding it difficult to come up with a counter. Are any of those OF really worth that much more than Belt?

Are there any real concerns with Donaldson's shoulder?

In 5x5 roto Id way rather Margot and Hamilton than Belt, just for the SB upside. And that's coming from a guy who 100% disregards steals in every draft.
Plus Margot might actually hit more HR than Belt.
And he probably doesn't work concussion therapy into his daily routine!

Seems like Donaldson can hit just fine. I guess he can DH indefinitely if needed.