ERA and WHIP differences across the NL/AL are getting smaller. I think I'd trade the PIT park effect for some wins (and assuming a pretty decent defense in HOU although I haven't checked the numbers

Musgrove could be intruging in PIT in both the rotation or the pen

Cutch to Giants, interesting, but dont think it changes much, maybe new scenery will help

I think it's a clear downgrade. It will much more difficult to hit homeruns in SF and batting average will probably take a hit, too. He is already stopped being much of a base stealer, so dropping to 12-15 home runs will be a big hit. He won't get much help in runs and RBIs since their lineup outside of him won't be very impressive.

anyone wanna throw some darts out there on closer situations youre watching going into camp?

namely, i think CHC, AZ, LAA, MIA seem interestingly in the air. and i dont think SF or WAS have clear situations right now.

Cubs- Lean Morrow, but no way he stays healthy, they'll likely trade (or sign?) someone.
DBacks- Seems like Bradley, could be a good steal. Over K per inning last year, and humidor (supposedly installed but no one knows for sure???) should help even more.
Angels- Bedrosian vs Parker. Bedrosian is the guy they want in, but Parker did so well last year (for first time in a long time). I guess Parker starts as closer, but Bedrosian will take over.
Marlins- Maybe Steckenrider? Had really good K rate in his small sample in majors last year, and could slide into closer role. Barraclough is the name I think people expect though.
Giants- Gotta be Melancon, Law was the guy they wanted to be closer through minors, had TJ in 2014, and his K rate just has been gone since, and didn't look great last year.
Nationals- Doolittle

Note: Still a ton of RP's available, Benoit, Clippard, Holland, Neshek, Norris, Oh, Reed, Uehara, Watson. Still a ton of moving that will happen imo

yeah, ive been antsy.

guys like morrow, melancon, doolittle have no way to stay healthy, so im looking into backups already.

i also wonder about CHC a lot. they'd been sort of grooming edwards but not sure he really has it. i cant see a 100 win team going by committee though.

Doolittle staying healthy again seems nearly impossible. But I have him as a cheap keeper in a league with no bench and one of the categories is innings.

So let’s hope one of those things where the guy unexpectedly is no longer a health risk happens this year.

Uh, Nats last year was same mess really lol

I dunno if its that big a deal. PIT was already bottom 5 in terms of RHH park factor so the park shift shouldn't be too brutal, and 10 SB is still pretty helpful in roto. And I'm not exactly bullish on SF's plan here but Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Longo, Cutch and whatever else in the OF seems like a credible MLB offense.

The Steamer .270/80/25/80/10 projection is pretty spot on IMO

Steamer projections have NFBC ADP now as well

Stanton's Steamer projection

.283 / 112 / 55 / 127 / 3 .. holy crap. No other player is projected to hit 40, although 15 are between 35-39.

Closer role for Twins update:
"Paul Molitor reiterated Fernando Rodney is his closer. Open to using Addison Reed in higher-leverage situations, regardless of inning."

I kinda buy it too. The Twins should be decent again and outside of Reed that bullpen is crap. Reed is the fireman/8th inning guy and Rodney starts the 9th fresh.

I know he is freaking ancient but the velo is somehow remarkably consistent and four of the last five years hes over 10K/9. The 1.30+ WHIP is not going to help but over 60-65 innings who cares.

ADP 250-260 I will take all day over participating in the closer run from picks 80-100 or so per NFBC. Gimme McCutchen or Cano or Justin Turner there and Rodney later as opposed to Giles and some crap hitter like David Peralta

Couple keeper choices that I'm probably over thinking, but want to double check what you guys would do.

a) Kershaw or Rizzo with a 1st?
(must keep at least 1 SP, 5 total keepers. other pitcher option would be CMart in ~12th)

b) Jose Ramirez in 11th or Bregman in 23rd?

This is on Yahoo so Rizzo has 1b/2b, Ramirez has 3b/2b, and Bregman has SS/3B.

Locked in are: Stanton 2nd, Bellinger ~15th, Judge 25th

What kind of players are typically available in the first round? Chalk seems like Kershaw and Bregman but (1) if you think you could get one of the big four SP with your first rounder CMart gets intereting there and (2) I don't think Ramirez is 12 rounds better than Bregman but if this is roto and wanted to lock up some steals I wouldn't blame you for going Ramirez.

you're already keeping 3 good bats, it's 100% Kershaw>Rizzo
Other would likely be Bregman imo, close between the 2, and with the value i'd rather have (plus like him more in general)

Yeah I might be overthinking. If you have to keep one SP anyway ..

that and Kershaw is a top 3 SP (if not the best), why would you not keep him with so many good bats already?

Ok thanks. I've been leaning Kershaw all offseason for the very reason that I have to keep a pitcher anyway so might as well ensure I have the best. Just wanted to see if people disagreed bc of Kershaw's back.

Ramirez/Bregman I've been flip flopping on though. Honestly the rounds don't matter that much to me. Anything after like the 8th round I just want the best possible player.

Their R/HR/RBI projections are really similar, with Ramirez projected just ever so slightly a bit better in AVG/OBP/SLG.
But does that SS elig give Bregman a bump? 2B might actually be tougher to get production out of.
FWIW Ramirez is only 2 years older than Bregman (25 and 23), which I didn't realize. For some reason thought Ramirez was like 28.

this is H2H btw.

There will likely only be a handful of top 30 hitters and top 20 SP available in the draft. Like maybe 5 or 6 of each. And of those, no more than one or two that have a 1st round ADP. (60 players are total are kept in this league)

I have both Sale and Kershaw on my roster, both 1st rounders so one of them for sure will be available. But I have the last pick of the first round and those two would likely go in the first few picks if I toss them both back. I expect about half the league to keep a player using their first round pick (Several players with 1st round ADP will be kept in later rounds)

I just like and trust the core around Bregman more than Ramirez. Right now Ramirez slotted to hit 3rd between Kipnis (31,coming off bad year), Encarnacion (35, when will his decline start, soon?), and Brantley (31, injured a ton, who knows if he'll come back). I trust Bregman's situation much more (hitting between Springer/Altuve/Correa), especially when he showed that power in the minors, unlike Ramirez.

Good point. Houston lineup should score a lot more runs than Cleveland

https://rtsports.com/siriusxm
FSTA Draft going on tonight with a bunch of experts, for those wanting to see an early draft
2 C league, CI/MI/1 Util, 6 man bench, 5x5 standard

in an auction keeper how much would you be willing to spend on deGrom + Darvish as your SP1 and SP2?

budget is $300 but deepish rosters, so roughly the same $ per player as standard $260 leagues.