1. this is true and possibly even more extreme. the top players have their own projection models. you arent going to win just looking at the same information everyone else is using

2. these types of shows from my experience are pretty broad and just go over level one info for the week about several players that is easily accessible. they aren't posting their actual lineups, plus the shows are usually during the week and a lot changes as actives/inactives become clearer

3. no real difference to me. multi-entry is just needed to fill larger contests, there are a lot of complete bust lineups in them too

4. rotoworld has pretty good dfs coverage

Thanks man! I'll check out rotoworld.


Some more questions to throw out:

5. Also, as a newb player, I noticed on Fan Duel I am now no longer eligible to play in the beginner contests, as I've past the 50 contest limit. How much different would that cashing point be in a beginner contest vs a non beginner? Mind you I play low stakes of $1 - $10 single entry cash games.

6. What is the effect on a player of entering a cash game with 20 contestants vs 100? I generally go for the 100 to have a wider mix of opponents. Any thoughts on this?

Just pick 8 guys you think are going to do good, crack a beer, sit back and enjoy the game. At this point I don't think there is any point in putting a lot of time and effort into DFS as a beginner. The competition is too tough, and there isn't much $$ to be had anyways.

If you are trying to make $$ watching sports, probably more profitable walking the aisles selling popcorn and soda.

Had a couple lineups today, one with Jimmy Butler and the other with Anthony Davis.

Butler was a scratch due to an illness with zero reporting ahead of time and Davis left at the very beginning of the game with a "knee issue."

Awesome. Also bet O216 in more traditionally sports betting formats. Gonna be hard to get that without AD.

To me it's honestly about the challenge of seeing if I can come out ahead and be a winner, regardless of how much that is. If I can be only a winner at $1 contests...then so be it, but I'd like to have the experience to know that rather than guess. I have an affinity for strategic gaming and I like football, which is why I want to give this a go.

In the end, it might be that this isn't a game that I can be profitable at, in any way. The rake seems considerably higher than poker and it seems that much like poker, the general public and new player is at a huge informational disadvantage relative to the pros and vets.

On a different note, is there a way to make these beginner contests no longer appear in the FD lobby? I am not able to enter them so it is useless for them to appear in the lobby for me, but I can't find a way to filter them out.

I was thinking about how this NFL dfs industry compares to the online poker boom in the early/mid 2000's. I think both games have that 20/80 rule where 20% of top players make 80% of the profit through an informational advantage over the general public. My question is this:

7. Is there a tool that most winning players are using that people will eventually catch on and use in this game? I'm comparing this to using PokerTracker and a HUD for online play. Now it is very standard online which makes it harder for everyone to win, but in the early days, the early adapters had a huge advantage over players who didn't use HUDs.

Also, coaching and training videos are much more common in online poker than they were 10-15 years ago. Is there coaching available in DFS?

8. Getting more detailed into the concept of winning players having an informational advantage, I'm wondering what kind of stats/info that winning players are using that the more casual players aren't? I'm sure these are on the pay sites, but I still wonder exactly what they are. I am guessing they are related to things such as:
-snap counts
-red zone stats
-match up/situational type stats

We are already past the DFS boom. Volume is going down, rake is going up, there are a ton of tools/columns/videos out there. The edge is the lowest it's ever been. Plenty of pros have reduced their playing volume and have spun up subscription services to provide projections/advice instead.

Imo, you are worrying about the wrong things, stacker. Just like you cannot follow a set of rules to win at poker, there is no magic formula that will make you profitable in DFS. Noobs aren't losing because they don't have the best projection model. They aren't losing because they don't have access to the same stats as the pros. They are losing because they are sheep who don't think for themselves, probably don't actually know much about the sport, and don't have a basic understanding of probability and statistics.

The latter is extremely important in DFS and it's astonishing how many players are missing it. You know how many people will roster a garbage hitter who has never hit for power in his career for a week straight just because he ran into a HR two games in a row? Mind-boggling.

Idk where I'm going with this, but I guess my point is stop thinking there is some magic tool or formula that will make you a winner. Do the work, learn the sport and how to assess players, and most importantly: EXPERIMENT AND LEARN WHAT WORKS FOR YOU. You know how you lose at DFS? You read an article that tell you to ALWAYS stack QB/WR in GPPs or NEVER do blah blah blah because 54% of winning GPPs lineups yada yada yada. Instead, think about the slate critically and formulate some ideas of your own for how to approach it. You will fail, but you will learn. Which is infinitely better than following some dumb script and shrugging your shoulders when "well I used the best plays according to Rotoblah and just got unlucky."

I appreciate your opinion and insight Priptonite. I totally agree that DFS isn't purely about number crunching and formulas. There are other factors you have to take into account that aren't quantifiable, like weather, personal motivation, importance of the game etc.

I totally agree on the experimenting and seeing what works for you. People all have different styles and preferences and are more likely to succeed in certain games over others.

I've got a way of doing this at the moment and I just have to see if I can win with it, but I'm also adding new things along the way.

Another new question for everyone though:

9. How much of an effect does it have on the level of competition you are playing as to when you enter a 50/50 contest? Are the casual players more likely to enter at the last minute on Sunday morning.. or does it not make a difference?

how do you see tourneys you didn't enter on FD?

Meteorologists would disagree

rotogrinders gives out links every day.

meteorologists can quantify the impact of weather on fantasy production?

I don't really think it matters when you enter a 50/50 honestly but I could be wrong. As far as the 50/50's go the massive single entry ones on dk are still Very soft and honestly the best hint to play on dk imo

usually the bigger the contest the softer it is. at least ime

Unquantifiable factors are things that, by definition, you shouldn't be worried about. That said, there are very few factors that are actually unquantifiable.

Played Fan Duel this week and got burned on going to heavy on Marvin Jones, Fournette, Bilal Powell, Antonio Brown and Jordan Howard.

Frustrating because Brown was so hyped on all the podcasts. There were warning signs for Marvin Jones facing the Browns CB, but his rankings were really high compared to his price of $6,500 this week. Powell was supposed to get a heavier work load, but it tailed off in the second half. I expected the Bears to shut down GB more than they did, but you can't expect Hundley to be brutal forever. A bye definitely helps him to prepare.

Lessons learned and looking forward to week 11.

Those guys were all solid plays, sometimes it just doesn't work out.


RG is littered with posts like "I'll never play Mike Trout again" and such. Sometimes the best lesson is not to read too much into tiny samples and short-term results.

yeah if your takeaway is "Im not starting antonio brown again" then you need to rethink your analysis

Ive stopped playing for this season. the edge just is not there anymore imo

Thing is - the Steelers are crap on the road. I'm surprised people keep forgetting. I'm a fan and don't think they've had a road blowout in at least 2 years. I had a little of AB, but until they show they can dominate on the road, I won;t go all in.

The thing is, if you go with the chalk, your money will turn to dust.

I still think there is some edge but the rake keeps going up and the field keeps getting better thanks to good players multi entering everything and touts educating the field. And now with the sites really pushing the smaller primetime slates (which I believe to primarily be a rake trap where you can't get much edge) it seems like DFS is trending towards just being a luckfest.

It's too bad because I think the industry was doing OK until the big controversies 2 years back, but once those controversies killed the massive industry growth the sites started trying to squeeze every dollar they could out of the games.

I'd be pretty surprised if there's a cohort that is winning over a significant sample this year. I think it's basically small stakes PLO again. Biggest problem is probably that the game is too ****ing easy and you don't really have to know anything other than where to look for advice.

I think aejones had the best phrase for this when describing the sites' intentions: sports-based lottery.

I haven't logged into 2+2 for a few years and don't really know how I found myself here tonight, but anyways:

I'm really surprised by the tone of this thread. I'm certainly not a great player: I lost $59.25 last year, but the idea that no one can win is kinda silly.

I'm shocked there is no discussion on game selection here. There is a major difference between Double Ups, Head to Heads, Single entry, limited entry and Mass entry fields. I'm not saying one is better then the other, but for YOUR type of play one probably is. It's important to try and figure out what your best at.

The other issue to think about is that one NFL season does not give you a reasonable sample size. No one would consider 17 poker sessions to be definitive on how good a player you are.

The informational advantage is interesting to me. The NFL doesn't have much of one as long as you have a twitter account.

My most profitable sport last year was golf, I listen to one podcast each week on it. That's it. This makes most of my lineups very contrarian to the field. I think in high variance sports (Baseball, Golf, and a lesser extent NFL) that's the main goal. If your not occasionally coming in at the very bottom of a tournament field your doing it wrong.

Just my 2 cents.

Ken