David Johnson.

**dynasty help: first year drafting**

.5 PPR 12 man league. 1st year is snake draft. years after that are auction 4-8 rounds (depending on how many players you decide not to keep: minimal 4, max 8). waivers are auctions style.

25 roster spots, 2 IR

1QB
1RB
2WR
1 RB/WR
1 WR/TE
1 RB/WR/TE
2 IDP

no k, no dst

IDP points are standard scoring for tackling, sacks, int., etc.

I have never drafted IDP before. I have done about 300 mock drafts since march. I still can't figure out a decent strategy in prioritizing IDP players. Does anyone have a tier sheet for IDPS that's useful? thanks!

IDP is WAY out of my expertise but with only 2 in the starting line-up I don't think you should stress too much. There are always serviceable mlb's that pop up and pile up tackles.
Don't go reaching for the macks and watts of the world. Even in dynasty the idp free agent market should be ok in the early part of the season.

That's what I was leaning towards. Especially because it's auction style for WW, there are going to be a lot of IDPS available off the FA for the duration of the season. I just didn't know if the points between someone like watt/collins versus tj ward/mack would really be that different.

assuming your IDPs can be any position, guys who get a lot of sack but not many tackle are gunna be your boom or bust guys (Von Miller is Desean Jackson) where as guys who are tackle machines are gunna be good but not great. guys who do both are the studs. this year the top of my list is like watt, kwon alexander, bobby wagner, sean lee, luke keuchley, mack, etc. if you really want a DB it should be a safety like landon collins but DBs in general are less consistant and generally aren't worth drafting as you can find a good one on WW.

it's also prolly different for dynasty but in my IDP leagues in general they're underrated and theres always deals to be had.

Which rounds would you say IDPS are usually started at coming off the board? 7th/8th? (12 man league)

how much better is michael thomas than dez bryant in non-ppr?

worth swapping a 5th for an 8th pick to upgrade as my keeper? (basically 7th for 10th since our two keepers are taken out last)

Dez Bryants production depends a lot on the cornerbacks he faces week in and week out, and as for now he has one of the worse schedulesfacing top cb 1/3 of his schedule iirc. Id take homas over him every time, dallas should have some regression as well as a team

Larry is around 45 and Diggs around 60. Im pretty low on Diggs isnt there a player that should take some of his job/slot snaps (some dude mentioned it in a mock draft but didnt pay much attention since I was already low on Diggs)

They added Michael Floyd, when he's back from 4 game suspension, & they might want to give Treadwell a shot this year? & they still have Thielen of course.

Diggs is (imo) one of the most interesting players at his ADP right now. We saw flashes last season of what could amount to a top-12 WR season, even with Sam Bradford. But he's stuck on a team with an improving run game (which, given their weapons, we should expect a higher than league average % of runs) and a top defense...

I feel much better drafting Diggs in best ball than redraft.

Watt went 3-4th last year but might be later this year with all the injuries he's had. From my experience other top guys should start going late 5th-6th.

I've never done an IDP league, but if there's only one spot, I've read that they're like TEs (or should be treated as such). If you have to start more, then you have to value them higher.

absolutely, thats a pretty good player to target in those leagues

Where are we drafting the #1 QB (whoever you think that may be) in a non-ppr non-keeper league where all TDs are worth 6 & passing yds are .04/yd (1 point per 25yds) 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/2Flex?

I am in a league with those rules (but it is a keeper league) where a lot of good players are being kept for super cheap so I'm wondering where he would normal go.

They're a little more valuable in that format, especially if most elite players are being kept, I guess Brady/Rodgers going in the 3rd is reasonable.

Yeah somewhere around 30th overall would be the earliest I'd consider it. Prob still wouldn't do it though. QB so insanely deep this year.

I made a picture to describe how I feel about this situation...

What am I missing about some of the value QB's having such low ADP's? Like why is Big Ben always there so late particularly in auction? I can't imagine paying premiums on the big guys when some of these guys are there so darn late.

I would have drafted Aaron Rodgers 6th overall in our new dynasty draft if Bell hadn't fallen to me. It's 6 points for passing TD's........

Rodgers scored 458 points last year. The next 11 QB average yearly total was 345. Thats a pretty big advantage.

He's been a top 3 QB for like 5-6 years......and he's got another 5 good years left.

I've been on the late-QB bandwagon for a while as well (assuming your typical 12-team, 1QB league), but I'm mildly perplexed that there hasn't been any real math published (that I know of, at least) that really answers the question of where you should draft Rodgers*.

*(or Brady, if you think he's the #1 this year - haha seems the top 2 at ADP is always Rodgers and some other guy: Cam in 2016, Luck in 2015, Brees in 2013-2014)

All of the factors that push someone to go late-QB (supply/demand, week-to-week predictability at the position, etc) are indeed compelling reasons to go late-QB, but I haven't yet seen/read anyone take all of those factors and derive a "fair value" for the top guys. Obviously there will be estimation error in such an exercise, but even an answer like "mid-5th, with a standard error of 10 picks" would be interesting to me.

Fwiw in real-money "expert" drafts I usually see Rodgers go in the 5th round.

I think people ITT underrate how much 6 pt throwing TDs helps the Godgers, Brady & Brees.

Without keepers, I'd think that requiring 2 flex starters (on top of 2RB+3WR) devalues the top QBs more than is helped by 6 point passing TDs. (Of course, which keepers are kept complicates things.)

No real math/stats to back this up, just guessing/intuition.

Aaron Rodgers led the league averaging 2.5 TD passes per game. There were like 40+ guys who averaged 1 or more, & the top 15 each averaged at least 1.5.

So with Rodgers you basically got 2 more TD points per game over a replacement level guy in 6 point v. 4 point.

Would have to think more about the context to determine if that's significant or not.

In 2015, though, Rodgers averaged 1.94 passing TDs per game...tied with Ryan Fitzpatrick for 10th.

Brees has been 6th, T7 & 4th the last three years.

Last year in 6 point TD leagues, Rodgers averaged between 6.5 & 9 points more per game than a bunch of guys you wouldn't really need to draft in standard leagues...Cousins, Dak, Rivers, Bortles, Winston, Mariota, etc.

So the question is, would a player you picked up where you took Rodgers get you 9 points more than replacement value, & the answer is almost certainly no... but the year before he finished 11th, despite playing every game, & picking him early killed seasons.

The year before that (2014) he was 1st, but only 5 points above replacement level. The year before that (2013) he was 4th & about 2 points above replacement level.

I don't really have a point, just putting some #s out there. If you're assured of a repeat of last year, he's an easy early pick, but assuming similar results is dangerous.

^^^
Good post

Another thing to consider is the vague definition of replacement player. Usually if/when I'm drafting the 10th-14th QB as my first QB, I'm not married to having him as my starter all year. This year in redraft I love taking one of Eli/Palmer/Rivers, but when they play SEA/DEN I'm likely going to waivers (or my 2nd QB if rosters are deep) for a replacement QB.

Of course, if you have Godgers then you too have the option of "playing matchups", but the increase in points that the Godgers owner gets from "playing matchups" isn't the same increase as that of the Eli/Carson owner. This devalues Godgers slightly (perhaps by 1-2 points per week?), at least relative to comparing his cumulative season stats to the cumulative season stats of the other top 12 QBs.