this is interesting:

in a 2p2 dynasty league (3 WR, 2RB, 1 flex), the rookie draft is underway. i took fournette #1, and then went mccaffery, cook, and mixon.

now im picking 5. am i missing something with davis? easy grab there?

For PPR I'd go:

RMatthews > Britt > Wallace >>> MJones >>>>>>> Shepard, although I wouldn't quibble with anyone who rearranges any of those first three guys.

I also really like Thielen and Beasley in the WR50 range (not sure how you'd feel about rostering both Diggs + Thielen).

If you were drafting tonight what would you do about Zeke/McFadden? League is pretty fishy so hard to predict how the others are gonna approach the situation (will probably depend on Yahoo's default rankings tbh).

General philosophy: if league is indeed fishy then you shouldn't need to embrace the variance of the Zeke situation.

Other stuff to consider: no guarantee that DMC will bellcow the load. Not just AlfMo to consider, but Jerry could likely bring in some FA veteran to help shoulder the load for six games (or even 4 games if the sentence gets reduced).

Id offer to move down 1 spot if the owner behind you really wanted Davis. I like Davis but i like someone else significantly more.....


PM coming.......

Would you want a friendly wager based on carries per game? Because I can promise you that if healthy, DMC will bell cow the load. Why (in no order):

1) DMC is the better pass blocker by a decent margin
2) Of the 2, DMC is the better pass catcher by an exponential margin
3) DMC is the better runner to boot (pick any stat you want to measure by)
4) They've already shown they'll use him that way when possible

They may give the goal lines to Morris, and they may certainly spell DMC with Morris because they can. But DMC will be the feature back FOR SURE. And no they won't bring in a better back, they like DMC-Morris a lot as a 1-2.

I don't disagree with (1)-(3), but (4) is where I'm not convinced. I didn't watch every Dallas game last year, so perhaps I'm missing some key context and tidbits information. When (and in what instances) did we see evidence of (4)?

From some quick cursory glancing at last year's stats, the only interesting tidbits I see are weeks 16-17 (14 carries and 7 carries for DMC). Morris had 8 carries in week 17. (Not that week 17 is an important data point as they had the 1-seed locked already). That doesn't look like bellcow work to me for either, but, again, I'm probably missing some important info (usage, red zone opps, 3rd-and-short stuff, perhaps).

In any event, I'm not really a fan of trying to draw strong inferences from this small sample size, and I do think the chance of the team adding another RB is maybe only 5%-10% (so any friendly wager would have to have appropriate odds )

Haven't done any of these fantasy hand-egg draft thingys in a while. What are your thoughts on this? Pick from #6 spot in 8-team league. Standard scoring on NFL.com.

R1-6
LeSean McCoy
BUF-RB

R2-11
Jordy Nelson
GB-WR

R3-22
Leonard Fournette
JAX-RB

R4-27
Amari Cooper
OAK-WR

R5-38
Carlos Hyde
SF-RB

R6-43
Tom Brady
NE-QB

R7-54
Jarvis Landry
MIA-WR

R8-59
Spencer Ware
KC-RB

R9-70
Sammy Watkins
LA-WR

R10-75
Davante Adams
GB-WR

R11-86
Rob Kelley
WAS-RB

R12-91
Kelvin Benjamin
CAR-WR

R13-102
Kyle Rudolph
MIN-TE

R14-107
Arizona Cardinals
ARI-DEF

R15-118
Steven Hauschka
BUF-K

Ware and Adams were huge value and Benjamin in the 12th was great seeing as it's standard scoring.
Never a fan of getting QB's that early but it worked out for you I think.

Probably time for a separate draft thread soon. You'll generally get better feedback if you post the full draft board, since a simple list of your players is going to be almost meaningless without seeing what your actual decisions were.

8 team leagues are hilarious

I'm at the 6th spot in a 12 team and have been targeting LeSean McCoy. Sometimes he goes earlier and I'm in nowhere land and don't like anyone from the top tier we (usually goes bell/dj/ab/LeSean and one of jj, obj.

What's the best player available after those? Have been going with aj and Evans most of the time but don't feel great about either. Any other player i could get there?

Think I'll be going Freeman > McCoy this year

I see Freeman as Demaryus Thomas, very high floor and solid production.and If Coleman busts/injures you are golden

Nothing about last year is going to tell you much given the existence of Zeke. The year that matters is 2015 and specifically once Romo was healthy and they had an offence resembling what they like to do. The Cowboys current offence is designed to keep opposing teams on the field for long stretches, so the carries will be there. Lets start with the premise that the Cowboys rush 28-30 times a game. No Whitehead, no Dunbar now. 3 rushes by Dak, you've got 27 left. If to boot now you have no Lance Dunbar to poach 3rd downs (which was his thing), DMC is ALSO gonna get those.

So I think 18-20 carries and 2.5 catches per game for DMC is very reasonable with Morris getting his 7-9. I don't think they want to give DMC 29 carries per given that he'll be 30 for week 1. But they like him just fine at 20. And I'm sure we all agree that in today's NFL if you're getting 20 carries per and 3rd downs in PPR, you're inching into bell cow even if it's not Zeke's 30 carries.

Anyway DMC will be overdrafted for sure so it's probably moot.

pretty funny

http://nypost.com/2017/08/15/espn-so...layer-is-sold/

So I am stuck on who to keep this year. 12 man auction league with a $200 limit on draft day and another $200 budget for waiver wire the rest of the year. Keep 3 players up to 3 years (year drafted and 2 after that). Due to each team keeping 3 players, auction prices are screwed up. For example, Le'Veon Bell is back in the draft pool this year and I won't be suprised to see him go for $120-$130. (AJ Green went for $122 last year)

I am keeping Amari Cooper and Michael Thomas this year. Keepers DO NOT effect the $200 budget. Do I keep Jameis Winston or LeGarrett Blount? I know Winston will be the better pick in the long run, but RBs are scarce this year and idk if I want to spend $120 or more on Bell. Or I could try to clean up the rookie RB's for cheaper and get more. Fournette and Cook preferably.

Bell is the only RB from the top 10 ADP that is available, minus the rookie crop. Then if they aren't kept, the next best available would be Lamar Miller and Isaiah Crowell etc.

you didn't post the settings but i would probably keep winston mostly because blount's talent and usage both project poorly

Yeah, Blount being bad at football is probably going to be a problem for him.

14 team league .5 ppr 1qb/2rb/2wr/1te/1flex 2 keepers

additional context: keeping ware for a 13th rd, and prob will get julio or OBJ in first rd

who u keepin:
tev coleman for an 8th or
tyrell williams for a 10th

first reaction is tev bc of upside if freeman gets hurt and still flex-worthy if not. but i do love tyrells talent and think he will be decent in terms of fantasy even while allen is healthy.

thoughts?

Would probably keep Tevin. Lots of mouths to feed if SD receivers healthy.

I think Tyrell is going then or later in drafts right now, isn't he?

Hmm actually Tevin seems to be going 92 & Tyrell 103. Nvm. Tyrell not really a prototypical PPR guy, though, even in half point.

I keep talking myself in circles out of everything.

yeah neither presents great keeper value but note that theres 14 teams so a 10th would be in the 140s range.

more interesting too because tevs ADP is falling and tyrells is rising

Yeah, both provide value (although it would be 130s).

Devonta currently is in concussion protocol. Based on ADP Tyrell should be the pick. I think in a 14 RB will be a scarcer commodity than usable WR though...

who is the wr to own in the cardinals offense? if any honestly, Ive seen Fitzgerald go very lowwhere he represents some value. Standard 12 team auction

Fitz continues to get no respect. I'm happy to have him as my wr3. I put him around there with Diggs and I probably slightly lean towards Diggs at the moment but could easily change.
Honestly I don't even know if those 2 guy's ADP are even close.