i mean it depends on what you think a breakout constitutes

29 homers last year, 162 game pace of 25 the year before. hard hit percentage was 39% in 2014 when he was just smashing the everloving **** out of everything and hitting .231 but his soft/med/hard ratios have been virtually identical the last 2 years with more or less the same FB rate

there's certainly room for growth but i think what he's been the last 2 years is more representative of what he's going to be than his rookie season indicated he could be. which is probably for the best. even if he doesn't get 30 bombs he'll get elite runs, above average rbi, hopefully more steals than last year but most importantly he'll hit >.260 instead of < .250

i don't think he'll ever be the 1st rounder we all figured his upside was

i think heyward is going to have a lot of value considering his almost undrafted o-rank

there's a very reasonable chance he's going to be the cubs leadoff hitter and his wrist is going to be healthy finally so there's a good chance his power isn't the utter dog**** it was last year and his BABIP rises

I'm very interested to see where saunders ends up in the Phillies lineup cuz he projects as the #3 hitter and if that's the case there's a lot of potential for value here. For that matter, the entire possible 1-5 of the Phillies lineup offers a lot of intrigue. I suppose Kendrick is the guy that throws a wrench in my theory. And I suppose they could keep hererra at 3rd instead of moving him up to 2nd

Interesting to note the fangraphs auction calculator is penalizing Bryant and Arenado in a major way for position. 3B depth might affect my earlier ranking of them. 1B, 2B, SS and OF are all really close (league dependant, obv)

Agree Gary - the one major thing I don't agree with respect to the the FG calculator is their position adjustments. I am no projection expert but I run some numbers and the differences between the non-catcher positions is pretty negligible.

For example Kendrys Morales, despite a decent projected Steamer line of .266 70 23 80 is a $1 guy per FG in a 12-team league that starts 14 hitters - because he gets -$1 as a position adjustment when any other non-catcher gets a $6.50-$8.10 adjustment (and yeah to your point it looks like 3B is getting dinged about $1-$2 compared to any other hitting position).

Not saying Morales is elite but even at UT he's got some value, hell FG itself is basically saying he's a $9-$10 player if he was 1B eligible.

going through the yahoo oranks:

1. shortstops are being unreasonably overrated. 24. lindor 27. boegarts and 37. story are all pretty god damned bad. especially considering villar is ranked 46th and i'd rather have him than the other3 in a vacuum much less at their ADP.

i never really noticed but boegarts was mediocre to outright bad once you remove the hit streak. i don't think he did anything to suggest taking him in the 3rd round is a good idea. ditto for lindor.

i love seager but i just don't see the value in him at 16. correa at 22 is probably the pick out of those 5 ss's. i just have a hard time believing he suddenly forgot how to hit a homer. he hit the ball (much) harder last season than he did his rookie year, he just hit really poorly at home (more specifically he hit horribly against lefties at home) which seems more anomalous than a consistent worry. he's got a full season hitting 4th behind springer/bregman/altuve, all he has to do really is hit 30 homers and he's first round value unless 1 or more of the 3 in front of him get hurt or suck

2. daniel murphy at 42 seems staggeringly bad. whether he's hitting 3rd or 4th dude utterly mashed the ball last season (hard hit % was by far the highest of his career). i guess i would argue that a .348 BABIP doesn't seem remotely sustainable for a guy with a .87 GB/FB ratio but at the same time even if you account for a drop in average he's got obp monsters hitting in front of him and bro hitting behind him (or a 3rd obp monster hitting in front of him). seems underrated

Lindor and Bogaerts both had a ****ton of R+RBI along with over 30 SB+HR and project for similar or better this season. Story was on the same trajectory before the injury and has more upside than any SS other than Machado/Correa imo. Those numbers are very valuable at any position, not just SS. Pretty similar to what can be expected of say Blackmon or Braun who are ranked in the same ballpark.

You'll notice that after the top tier of SS (Machado) and the 2nd tier (Correa, Seager, Lindor, Story, Bogaerts) there is a pretty big drop off in R+RBI production. It goes from guys who you can reasonably expect 180ish or more to guys who in tje 150s or lower. Thats a large difference in value.

I am kinda torn on Bogaerts. From a skill standpoint 20 HR and 10 SB is pretty sustainable. He has a 11.4% HR/FB and he was touted as having some decent power as a prospect. But they've already shown the can and will drop him in the lineup if he stinks and there's no way to profit off that pick unless he's hitting 2nd or 3rd in that lineup.

Agree Correa at 22 has far more upside than any of those other guys at their ADP. Correa could easily re-enter the first round conversation in 2018 with a huge season

If those are the costs I prob rank them Villar Correa Story, and then Bogaerts if you put a gun to my head just ahead of Lindor but taking neither in the 20s

There is zero chance he will be the cubs leadoff hitter, lol

Pretty sure Maddon has said Schwarber will be leading off.

They have said Zobrist, or some combo of Zobrist-Schwarber.

What is the earliest you would take Pollock in 12 team mixed?

I'm not touching him, but that's just me

I'd take him around 40-45...think he's been going too early.

The FG auction calculator has Pollock about #15 among OF as opposed to the #7 OF (ADP 35) from NFBC. I'm much closer to FG

While running that on FG, the #8 OF is Eric Thames with a Steamer line of .270/75/30/85/13. Umm .. discuss.

Massive lol

I am surprised he is going #7 OF in NFBC, but I guess thats just a result of speed being more scarce. Im pretty torn on him, and not sure where I want him yet.

i have no idea what to make of thames but he has an orank of 263 and i can't honestly imagine his ADP is THAT much higher than that (yet)

possible he has a big spring and the hype machine takes off but absent that, idk. also iirc steamer had huge projections for park last year and couldn't have been further off

Yeah his NFBC ADP is 210. If I could get him 250+ as a bench bat it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I know Steamer is just trying to do some kind of MLB-equivalency thing and I know he raked in Korea but that just stood out as ridiculous

Park TBF got kind of a raw deal with the injuries and not really given much of a leash. Someone will prob give him a shot this year. Fair or not it was the stupid Twins and not like they were playing for anything.

Twins still have Park, likely will start season in AAA

I think Steamer's Thames projection is a little silly, but sounds to me like you guys have him a little too low, considering a) what the bottom of the 1B pool looks like b) how Korean hitters have fared and c) the ballpark he's playing home games in. 210 Doesn't seem ludicrous to me and I'm inclined to go for the upside that the Mike Napolis and CJ Crons of the world don't have, esp since MIL doesn't have anyone to compete with him for playing time. Tommy Joseph is close, but he won't have the same RBI opps as Thames, so I'm inclined to Rank Thames after Belt in the 1B hierarchy.

Phillips officially to Braves, will be interesting to see if Peraza or Herrera gets the job

my money is on Peraza

Beat writer thinks it'll be competition, and Peraza was used as a "super util" last year, they could do that again if Herrera is ready

per rotoworld today:

Reds manager Bryan Price confirmed Monday that Jose Peraza is in line to start at second base.