Quote:
I still take Salazar over Keuchel. Probably Pineda too, if just for the Ks.
Not really buying Keuchel's resurgence to be honest.
93% strand rate is absurd so that will drive his ERA up when it normalizes.
His Ks are down well under 8K/9for the 2nd year in a row. FIP is almost identical to last year. Definitely expect some regression, and his ERA is likely to be cloer to 4 than sub-3 going forward. Id much rather sell him than buy.
2015 / 2016 / 2017
K/9 8.38 / 7.71 / 7.67
FIP 2.91 / 3.87 / 3.41
xFIP 2.75 / 3.53 / 2.96
SIERA 2.84 / 3.77 / 3.11
Soft% 25.2 / 21.1 / 28.1
Hard% 21.3 / 29.8 / 21.6
GB% 61.7 / 56.7 / 64.4
SwStr% 10.3 / 9.6 / 11.1
To each his own and I'm not necessarily buying sky-high (if I didn't already own him), but this pessimism is unfounded as K/9 and FIP are like the very worst stats you can possibly reference. All other metrics put him much closer to 2015 than to 2016.
Obviously the 1.69 ERA is lol unsustainable but baseballs have no memory, and his skill stats indicate a very solid RoS outlook. He's a significant dog to have a sub-3 ERA of course, as are most pitchers outside of the big three. But I'd classify him as a near elite SP2 option going forward.
In IP limit leagues he's less valuable than in GS limit leagues--I'll grant that for sure.