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Old 01-28-2017, 02:20 AM   #126
cs3
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

I think both those guys are worth a lot more in roto where a huge steal total is more valuable than in H2H

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Old 01-28-2017, 11:11 AM   #127
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

I'm not buying Turner's power at all, .220 ISO which is about 70 points higher than most of his time in the minors. But speed being what it is, .290 / 95r / 10hr / 60rbi / 40sb should put him around #15 at worst.

I think there is actually more SB than HR upside on those numbers too. He was 33/39 attempts last year in basically half a season.
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Old 01-28-2017, 11:16 AM   #128
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

ya i mean if you thought dee gordon was a 2nd rounder for the past couple years you have no reason to think turner (who is likely better at every category) isn't. plus 2b, ss, of eligibility is pretty sweet

if you're dismissing is power what you're saying is he isn't a first rounder
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Old 01-28-2017, 11:22 AM   #129
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

In a 10 or 12 team league, nah I wouldn't take him in the first. If I was on the turn in a 15-team league, Trea and some mashing CI (Donaldson Miggy Rizzo, take your pick) is a pretty nice way to start IMO.

Speaking of Harper, NFBC ADP is Trout Betts Bryant Altuve Arenado Kershaw Goldy Machado Scherzer and then Harper 10th. Latest he was picked in any draft was 14th. No way I'd take Max before Harper but rest don't seem out of line.
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Old 01-28-2017, 11:32 AM   #130
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Originally Posted by cs3 View Post
I think both those guys are worth a lot more in roto where a huge steal total is more valuable than in H2H
Yeah speed is gonna drive roto league drafts for sure. I thought about punting it, crushing R/HR/RBI doesn't seem too hard but building a team where you have to be guaranteed top two or three in batting average seems like a disaster waiting to happen.

Maybe a little more feasible in OBP leagues where the sluggers walk a lot too
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Old 01-28-2017, 12:42 PM   #131
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen View Post
ya i mean if you thought dee gordon was a 2nd rounder for the past couple years you have no reason to think turner (who is likely better at every category) isn't. plus 2b, ss, of eligibility is pretty sweet

if you're dismissing is power what you're saying is he isn't a first rounder
Are you playing YPLs this year?
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Old 01-28-2017, 04:19 PM   #132
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Anyone on here interested in buying a fairly stacked dynasty league team? $200 annual buy in, 14 teams, 6x6 roto on Fantrax. The team features Goldy, Rizzo, Marte, Sano, Kipnis, Cole, Kluber, Cespedes, K. Seager, Betances, among others. Each team has majors as well as 35 minor league prospects, with an annual prospect draft. I'm fielding all offers for the team. Only selling because I don't have time with my work to keep up with it. If you want more info, or are interested in the team, feel free to send me an email at jrcfb7@gmail.com
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Old 01-28-2017, 04:34 PM   #133
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Wait, so you want someone to pay money for the privilege of taking over the team? Like, in addition to paying the buy-in?
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Old 01-28-2017, 04:55 PM   #134
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Wait, so you want someone to pay money for the privilege of taking over the team? Like, in addition to paying the buy-in?
Yes.. from what I understand that's not uncommon for dynasty teams that take a long time to build up.
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Old 01-28-2017, 05:52 PM   #135
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Off the top of my head while at gym:

1. Trout
2. Harper. The only argument against is you don't trust his health, but he's in a better position now than he was last year where his ADP was 1.5. Turner and Eaton >>>>>> Revere and whoever else it was, his shoulder is by all accounts fine and he's still only just now entering his prime. Before he hurt his shoulder he was pacing some GOAT equity ****
3. Betts. Entering prime, doesn't swing and miss. Saw less strikes last year hitting in front of Ortiz than he did 2 years ago. Save for his slow start carried a .230+ ISO each month except the end of the season when his knee was hurt. Floor lower than trout but I sincerely believe at this point he has the greater ceiling (no fault of trout's mind you, the angels just flat suck)
4. Bryant
5. Arenado
6. Altuve
7. Machado
8. Goldschmidt
9. Rizzo
10. Blackmon

Hilariously underrated:
Freeman. I spent most of last season ****ting on this guy cuz I'm an idiot. Hard to overstate how amazing a hitter he was after the slump. He seems to be the cano of 2017 in inexplicable 4th round ADP for clear 2nd round value

Villar: as cs3 said the Turner love combined with villar underrating makes no sense. 2b, 3b, ss eligibility, and a .313 babip on grounders for someone as fast as him is hardly outrageous. My only concern with him is his HR/FB rate especially combined with how few fly balls he hits. That's where his average, homers and RBI could drop but still, high runs, high steals, decent average and 3 position eligibility make him inherently valuable

Desmond: I don't think this needs explaining. I would have expected his ADP to be late first early second and would have had zero problem drafting him there. 4th-5th round ADP is lol. Guy I'm gonna target in the 3rd, early 4th til that's corrected

Gomez: he was ****ing outstanding in Texas and Milwaukee, horrible in Houston. Given how many hitters have been horrible in Houston and amazing elsewhere I'm willing to. It hold that against him

Upton: I'm going to regret this

Morales: he is going to CRUSH. He's not gonna be encarnacion obviously but the dropoff won't be big enough to where he's going to be anything but value where he's taken

Guys I'm fading:

Donaldson: really have no idea what to make of this. Have a hard time justifying using a 1st on him. Was pretty mediocre in the 2nd half, losing encarnacion doesn't help, Saunders and his sweet obp is gone, bats is another year older, Toronto just seems top to bottom weaker by enough that it's just not sensible using a 1st on him

Posey: no ****ing way

To be continued
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Old 01-28-2017, 06:05 PM   #136
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Originally Posted by Hole Camels View Post
Yes.. from what I understand that's not uncommon for dynasty teams that take a long time to build up.
I've never heard of that before, but I'm not too into keepers, so maybe I've missed the boat.
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Old 01-28-2017, 06:12 PM   #137
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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I've never heard of that before, but I'm not too into keepers, so maybe I've missed the boat.
It's for teams in leagues that are more than just keeper leagues. We're talking 24 active MLB slots and 35 Minor league slots, plus full fledged dynasty settings. Leagues like this take a long time to build up teams.
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Old 01-28-2017, 06:19 PM   #138
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen View Post
Off the top of my head while at gym:

1. Trout
2. Harper. The only argument against is you don't trust his health, but he's in a better position now than he was last year where his ADP was 1.5. Turner and Eaton >>>>>> Revere and whoever else it was, his shoulder is by all accounts fine and he's still only just now entering his prime. Before he hurt his shoulder he was pacing some GOAT equity ****
Think you're absolutely insane. Hurt or otherwise, the entire league knew he was opening his shoulder and despite the obviousness of the problem, he wasn't able to adjust. That's not to say he absolutely won't, but taking him over Mookie and Arenado, both more or less sure things, is a massive mistake. Also, wouldn't count on a repeat of the stolen base total.


Quote:
Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen View Post
3. Betts. Entering prime, doesn't swing and miss. Saw less strikes last year hitting in front of Ortiz than he did 2 years ago. Save for his slow start carried a .230+ ISO each month except the end of the season when his knee was hurt. Floor lower than trout but I sincerely believe at this point he has the greater ceiling (no fault of trout's mind you, the angels just flat suck)
4. Bryant
5. Arenado
6. Altuve
7. Machado
8. Goldschmidt
9. Rizzo
10. Blackmon
Much as i hate early pitching, if Kershaw is available at 10, your league is undervaluing SPs and you're not catching up with Blackmon as your anchor for a traditional balanced-offense 70-30 draft approach. No way he's the right pick.

Think you may be overestimating the depth of 1B and underestimating the MI depth this year.

I prefer Arenado to Bryant, but meh.

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Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen View Post
Hilariously underrated:
Freeman. I spent most of last season ****ting on this guy cuz I'm an idiot. Hard to overstate how amazing a hitter he was after the slump. He seems to be the cano of 2017 in inexplicable 4th round ADP for clear 2nd round value

Villar: as cs3 said the Turner love combined with villar underrating makes no sense. 2b, 3b, ss eligibility, and a .313 babip on grounders for someone as fast as him is hardly outrageous. My only concern with him is his HR/FB rate especially combined with how few fly balls he hits. That's where his average, homers and RBI could drop but still, high runs, high steals, decent average and 3 position eligibility make him inherently valuable

Desmond: I don't think this needs explaining. I would have expected his ADP to be late first early second and would have had zero problem drafting him there. 4th-5th round ADP is lol. Guy I'm gonna target in the 3rd, early 4th til that's corrected

Gomez: he was ****ing outstanding in Texas and Milwaukee, horrible in Houston. Given how many hitters have been horrible in Houston and amazing elsewhere I'm willing to. It hold that against him

Upton: I'm going to regret this

Morales: he is going to CRUSH. He's not gonna be encarnacion obviously but the dropoff won't be big enough to where he's going to be anything but value where he's taken

Guys I'm fading:

Donaldson: really have no idea what to make of this. Have a hard time justifying using a 1st on him. Was pretty mediocre in the 2nd half, losing encarnacion doesn't help, Saunders and his sweet obp is gone, bats is another year older, Toronto just seems top to bottom weaker by enough that it's just not sensible using a 1st on him

Posey: no ****ing way

To be continued
Gomez's Texas sample size was way too small to give him anywhere near the credit you seem to be, imo. I'd expect better than his Houston numbers, but sure wouldn't assume he'll be all the way back.

Villar's .373 BABIP scares me and the 19.6% HR/FB scares me more. The combination seems unsustainable, though 10 HRs and 50 SB wouldn't be the end of the world.

Cano was a special circumstance, with the stomach bug he suffered in 2015 doing some real damage that everyone conveniently forgot (I was a big advocate last year). Agree that Freeman's going a little too low, though.

Upton is the cupcake: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pxG4yd8U3U

As for Donaldson, think the R/RBI dropoff is fair, but the 2nd half fade was about a bad hip that seems likely to be a non-issue to start the season. I have him 10 right now.
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Old 01-28-2017, 06:32 PM   #139
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Oh I forgot Myers as underrated. Thought for sure he'd have first round adp and am stunned at where it is currently
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Old 01-28-2017, 06:36 PM   #140
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

I don't think Gomez will be all the way back either since 'all the way back' is him as a first rounder

That said houston's history of underdeveloping clearly skilled hitters would lead me to believe there's a vacuum of suck there. It's not coincidence that between the start of him in Milwaukee til now the only times of consistent suck was every game he played in Houston

And ya I don't really buy villar's homers, average and RBI for exactly the reasons you stated (that I also stated), but as you say, even accounting for that regression he's undervalued
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Old 01-28-2017, 08:08 PM   #141
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Selling teams, dynasty or otherwise, is kind of lol. I know it happens, but wtf.
the commish (and the other owners) should want to vet anyone taking over a team, especially in a hardcore league like that. Who's to say that they will even let the person "buying" the team into the league? Its like selling your entry to a random off the street half way through a private home game tourney.
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Old 01-28-2017, 09:14 PM   #142
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Oh I forgot Myers as underrated. Thought for sure he'd have first round adp and am stunned at where it is currently
Who are you pushing out of the first round for guys like Myers and Desmond to be there lol
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Old 01-28-2017, 09:16 PM   #143
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Selling teams, dynasty or otherwise, is kind of lol. I know it happens, but wtf.
the commish (and the other owners) should want to vet anyone taking over a team, especially in a hardcore league like that. Who's to say that they will even let the person "buying" the team into the league? Its like selling your entry to a random off the street half way through a private home game tourney.
Meh I don't think it's that big a deal. Definitely a ton of equity in buying a team already that stacked. You win one year and you've already made up for it and more
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Old 01-28-2017, 09:28 PM   #144
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Im not saying its not a good investment for the person buying. What I'm saying is that the commish can very easily just tell the buyer "sorry you arent running the team. we already have a new owner".
The people running the league pick the new owner. Not the person who is dropping out. Allowing someone to sell a team is asking for all kinds of problems, if not outright scams.
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Old 01-28-2017, 09:30 PM   #145
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Who are you pushing out of the first round for guys like Myers and Desmond to be there lol
Well I named 10 hitters and besides Donaldson I think Myers is better than all the rest.

Now after those 10, Donaldson and Myers name 2nd round hitters you would take over Desmond
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Old 01-28-2017, 09:38 PM   #146
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Miggy
Turner
Freeman
Marte
Seager
Correa
Votto

Off the top of my head
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Old 01-28-2017, 09:42 PM   #147
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Desmond??? There are like 4 rounds worth of guys Id take over Desmond. What kind of line are you expecting him to put up? Because if you take him anywhere close to round 1 you're paying for what you hope will be career highs across the board

I don't think Myers is a good pick at the 1-2 either.



edit - I can name hitters from way more than just the second round id take over Desmond lol. I can also think of a bunch of SP
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Old 01-28-2017, 10:13 PM   #148
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Thinking about it some more, Desmond isn't even in my top 12 OF's, let alone top 12 hitters overall
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Old 01-28-2017, 11:01 PM   #149
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Think SRM is pretty spot on for most, but Desmond so high is crazy. He had 2 HR in the last 2 months, and fell off a cliff.

Also wondering if SRM is this guy in my mock since he went Harper/Blackmon/Myers and took Desmond in 6th
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Old 01-28-2017, 11:14 PM   #150
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Re: 2017 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Desmond - I'd say about 20-24 homers and 15-18 steals, Coors BABIP can keep his batting average in the .270-.280 range. And something like 85 runs and RBI, plus or minus some either way depending where he hits in the lineup. Trout Betts Harper Blackmon clearly ahead, do what you want with Stanton. After that he seems to bit somewhere in the next tier with Cargo, Cruz, Marte, Pollock, JDMart, Yelich, Upton .. I got him around 10th-11th among OF?

I definitely like him more than the mid-50s ADP but I think he will creep up the board as we get closer to peak draft season. He's at 58.0 NFBC ADP but the range is 20-105, some of those drafts could have been before he even signed.
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