Quote:
Originally Posted by Gary Wise
If you don't expect Story to hit HRs early, don't draft him. Trade for him in mid-May.
Yeah, it's just how fast he'll bounce back from thumb surgery really.
When Harper had it, he had it early in season, came back and hit 12 more HR's in 76 games, his lowest SLG so far in his career that season, even worse than last year.
Pedroia had it in 2013, had surgery in offseason (November), and had his lowest career SLG/OPS the next season.
Harrison had it in 2015 midseason, hit 0 HR in the 39 games he came back that season, and his SLG/OPS in 2016 declined as well (although who knows how good he really is)
Phillips had it in 2014 midseason, came back and had 1 HR in 35 games.
Simmons bounced back well last season, but only 4 HR (his SLG/OPS right around career avg, but never really power guy)
Josh Hamilton had it in 2014, had career low SLG when he came back.
It seems like this type of injury is a slow come back, but it's not a big sample size, and hard to say how youth will impact it, since most were older (Except Harper). Either way, I worry a lot that his power will be impacted for the first half of season at least.
Also, maybe there's more examples, but these were the main ones I found. And maybe there's metrics to look at, but just from my quick research and remembering these injuries, it just worries me so much, especially from a rookie.