Quote:
Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen
Heading into this year the logic was that the elite hitters were standard deviations above replacement level to the point where passing on one for a pitcher was sacrificing too much. Replacement level went way up so that's simply no longer the case imo
Agreed, while replacement value for top SPs seems to be dramatically worse than previous years. Something something juiced balls low contact rates.
Pitchers are higher variance than hitters--no doubt. But the fact that 4 of the top 7 players on the player rater this year are pitchers and they all had ADP <25 makes me think that the risk of an elite ADP pitcher is probably commensurate with the reward.
Hitters aren't without risks either. They tend to bust less spectacularly than pitchers, but if you drafted Miggy/bro/Donaldson/Machado this year you got 6th or worse round value out of it--dramatically closer to replacement value than what you bargained for and really not
that much better off than if you had a pitching bust instead.