you really do have the midas touch

Right?!

:/

How's everyone looking at the ASB?

I'm in a pretty dominant position (season long roto redraft, 12-team):

C Perez
1B Hosmer
2B Dozier
3B Franco
SS Semien
MI Jose Ramirez
CI Thames
IF Merrifield
OF Springer
OF Trumbo
OF K Davis
OF Duvall
OF Schebler
UTIL Clint Frazier
Bench Suarez/Gallo/S. Marte
DL Brad Miller (just letting him roll for a bit)

SP Kershaw
SP Scherzer
SP Pineda
SP Berrios
SP Lamet
SP Godley
SP Nola
SP Bauer (about to drop)
RP Jansen
RP Kintzler
RP Reed
DL Bumgarner

Winning R, HR, ERA, W, SV, WHIP, and soon K's once I catch up in starts. Massive lead in ratios. I'm going to roll with Kershaw/Scherz/Bum for a couple weeks then trade one or two of them for elite bats. Might also try to unload Springer for Correa or something and solve my SS situation once and for all.

Speaking of SS, how do we feel about Semien vs Miller ROS?

I feel like Semien was a sneaky underrated player in the draft, whereas Miller was more of a sure thing with a history. Obviously the position has been a complete disaster for me this year, but they're both back at once, I really don't have anyone droppable, and I also have to make room for MadBum.

I probably go Miller just cuz the offense around him is shockingly beasting

5/6 YPL's in the top 6, 1 dead last

the 2p2 keeper league i was facing cs3 (above) is in interesting shape at the ASB

12 teams, h2h, 6 teams make the playoffs.

cs3 is in 1st, by 5 games
2nd-4th are within 4 games of each other
then between 4th and 5th is a 12 games
and then 5-12 are all within 8 games

so theres a great fight for the last 2 playoff spots...for the privilege of losing to cs3 in rd 1

carlos gonzalez dropped in my league. k% is the same, even walking more. seems to be getting BABIP'd and HR/FB'd a bit but also getting less hard hits. It doesn't seem that alarming to me and feels like he may go on his patented run in the second half. What does everyone think on him?

What is the normal playoff structure for a 12 teamer? Wouldn't cs3 get a bye?

yeah i guess he would, i was mostly just making a joke.

never really been in a league where everyone is still in it by now though i dont think. the last place team is just a good couple weeks away from jumping to 5th, really

Absolutely pick him up.

For a high draft (<100 ADP) hitter to be droppable, they need to be majorly underperforming replacement value. In my league, the current replacement OF are Kepler (43/10/39/3/.266) and Hernan Perez (32/10/35/8/.266).

Cargo's 37/6/22/1/.221 is worse than those, but not by some insane margin. His upside easily makes rostering him worth it, especially since you're probably talking about any of these players being a bench bat anyways until they heat up.

I'm not saying dropping Cargo was a mistake either necessarily. If big closer news or a callup comes out and he's the guy you've got to cut, replacement value becomes a whole lot less important.

In 4th and 3rd in my two 10-team H2H leagues for money

In fourth place(2 points out of first) in my mixed league.

In fourth place (4 points out of first) in my AL only league.

9th place in my NL only league. Tightest I have ever seen the NL only I am really a strong month (read no injuries) out of first place.

Super tight year in all of my leagues. Nobody running away with anything.

1st in stacked keeper league by 4, 21 points ahead of third place

2nd in redraft roto

3rd in H2H

4 YPL rotos: 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 6th.

Weird thing is I thought my 7th place team (in the 20 team dynasty) would be by far my strongest team. Roster includes guys like Stras, Archer, Greinke, Pineda, Mookie, JDM, Cano, Story, Turner, Avila etc... just been disappoint after disappoinment.

Meanwhile I was really apprehensive about my chances in the 2p2 league after the draft, but lucked out with guys like Bellinger/Judge/Alonso/Correa/Ramirez/Ray/Nelson performing wildly beyond expectation.

didn't realize cs had both judge and bellinger. i really should start my firesale and build for 2020

7 YPL's, all Top 6 (4 of them in 1st Place), and main Keeper League in 1st place even with a bunch of injuries (and get buyin back for being in 1st at ASB), very happy with this season half way through

1st in my 5x5 redraft

2nd in my Dynasty League

Chad Green quietly going full deveneski

Midseason takeaways:

Hard hit %/soft hit % the most important stat among hitters when making early calls. Sano, judge, bour, Morrison, that **** does not lie

**** rich hill

Lol drafting starters early. Not that we didn't already know this, but still. Grab as many elite middle relievers early on as you can and don't even bother with closers

Steals confirmed THE category

ehh maybe in roto, but in H2H its more like lolsteals.
I paid zero attention to steals in all my drafts and am bottom 3 in total steals in all my leagues, and am doing pretty alright imo.
Basically steals are the 1 category that really dont matter in H2H, mostly because they are the only one not correlated with any other common fantasy stat.

Edit- I was maybe a bit unclear, but I feel like steals are the only stat you can completely ignore in the draft without having a negative impact on any other category

sometimes i forget that H2H even exists lol

You should have some fun and stop playing exclusively in old man leagues!

what do people think about arrieta? is this basically what we can expect from him ROS/beyond or think he can right the ship some?

You should try playing chess instead of go fish.

Chess also an old mans game



MM,
With the way Arrieta became good so suddenly, I wouldn't be surprised if he lost it just as quickly. While hes not old (he doesn't play roto or chess yet!), he is 31 now, and this could just be standard decline. Compared to his peak in 2014/15 his SwStr rate is down, walks are up, ground ball rate is down, and HR/FB is way way up - actually has increased for the 3rd consecutive year. His hard hit allowed % is also the worst its been since he was a rookie in 2010. Hes not fooling guys like he once did. I kind of think hes just not as good as he was 2 years and wont ever be again.

I would expect an ERA in the 3.7-4.2 range and a whip around 1.20 or so going forward. Still a decent pitcher but not the fantasy ace he once was.