obviously offer Story instead

VERY worried, glad I only have him in 2 leagues and 1 with Longo so he's on the bench atm, other i'm stuck playing him

Sano will be droppable in a few weeks, K rate way too high, BABIP super high last year.

Stay away

I'm not really concerned about any of the hitters yet.
Well at least not any that I wasn't concerned about before the season - I was terrified of Sano and Gomez going into the year based on last season.
Besides guys like Blackmon/Brantley who have injury concerns, it's too early to be overly worried about hitter performance.

RE: Miggy, not concerned at all about the bat (as evidenced by the trade I posted lol).
ISO doesn't stabilize until 160 PAs, so I woudnt even blink twice unless his ISO is at .150 in another month.
(Actually not close to any of the stabilization points yet:
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pri...s/sample-size/ )

Pitchers are a different story IMO. Guys with a big velo drop, or who can't command anything make me nervous, because it's so often a sign of injury. A lot different than with hitters who we think are maybe just declining.
I know avg velo is usually at its lowest early in the year and generally trends up for a couple months, but 2mph drop still seems sketchy.

Going in reverse as far as people to buy low(ish) or on the ground floor from casuals:

Cueto
Verlander
Joe Ross
Nola
Smyly
Eickhoff

People who will be overpriced cuz of recency bias but still undervalued relative to likely final numbers:

Carrasco
Salazar

I'd pick up rich hill today if he's available and deal him if he crushes and if you have Velasquez sell that **** immediately. The guy still hasn't thrown 100 innings in an MLB season and the Phillies have no reason to let him exceed that by all that much

I see no justifiable reason to get psyched about ross stripling. Having said that his next start is vs the Barves and he's turned in 2 good to excellent starts so far. So im picking him up everywhere to flip him next week

Theory: there has never been a better year for streaming pitchers because of the tanking NL teams.

Anyone wanna take a good crack at a list of good streamers?

The hard part is a list of players who play SD, PHI, ATL, MIL but aren't likely owned

Tough to do because it totally depends on league size.

fwiw, from Sullivan's Fangraphs chat today:

10:39 Dave: Have you seen anything in Harvey's two starts so far that would lead to concern/hope about his lack of whiffs?
10:39 Jeff Sullivan: The Royals don't swing and miss much, and for the start in New York, I believe it was super cold
10:40 Jeff Sullivan: The usual stuff is there. I'm still definitely a believer

Who are some starting pitchers I dhould be targeting with Nelson Cruz? I barely ever trade but my offense is too good and my pitching is terrible. Fwiw, we count Wins, K, ERA, WHIP, SV+H, QS and K/9. 12 teams.

I could also trade, Tyler White, or Hazelbaker (sp) or a package or something.

I don't trade very much but I'm ttying to win this year and need some pitching.

My OF without Cruz would be:

Trout
Jones
Gregory Polanco

Billy Hamilton
Hazelbaker (sp)

Crisp>Burns again

shine coming off the apple in a big way with young Trevor John

Not if your intention is to hold him for a full season. The last couple (and next 2) days were always going to happen

But for someone who wants to trade story for trout this sucks

Carrasco, Harvey, archer, greinke tier

he hit 2 triples that were a couple feet away from HRs 2 games ago, i know we like to jump to conclusions really fast, but still.

@chc is a tough series, @cin should be fine, then back to coors, so yeah, dont try to trade him after an 0/5 day but id imagine his trade value is gonna be about the same this coming week

True, but last week was the only time that the illusion of him being better than a .240 existed

Anyway onto not story things: I think this morning's the last chance to buy low(ish) on either of Nola or Cueto, and if you haven't picked up schoop you're running out of time. He's a strong game today away from being universally recognized instead of being laughably overlooked

The downside on him is he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk while hitting really low in the order (for now). Upside is he's a 25+ homer 2b

Also im putting my foot down on rich hill's viability this season and hope more teams drop him so I can keep scooping. The only thing you can say semi-definitively is that his mega-elite k rate from last year is looking legit. Besides that you're drawing conclusions on him sucking and being droppable off a near .500 BABIP? Ya ok

The a's are too smart to kick him out of the rotation which means he has decent equity at 200 ks

Let's talk trumbo. I had the switch to a hitter friendly park and a non AIDS lineup helping him but not like this. We selling or holding? Where would he go in a redraft today?

imo entirely dependent on what you can get for him. his floor conservatively is 30/90/.250. his ceiling is probably 40-45 homers hitting .260-.270. if you can get a player whose floor-ceiling range exceeds that then by all means, otherwise hold him

Wow, completely disagree with the floor statement, think it goes lower (.235/25). Right now, he's babiping .393 and his HR/FB is 35.7% (both indicating extreme luck). Don't drink too much of this small sample size's kool aid imo.

i mean he's already at 5 and zips projects him to get 28 ROS while missing almost 30 games

i agree with both statements re: extreme luck but he's still an effective power hitter in a park and division of parks conducive to that

Is a trumbo and prince for price deal too much in a vacuum? Trying to package Vincent and trumbo right now to pull in a top 50 player but no one is biting.

Very very very too much in a vacuum to the point where this being the first time I actually looked in depth at fielder's numbers I think I want to buy up as much as possible

He has a .194 BABIP which of course is lol.

He's slugging .220 which is less than half last year and less than 2/3 his worst season

His k rate is 28.8% which is over twice as large as it was last year

So either he's off to an impossible to sustain cold streak or his career ended this offseason. Now considering he's a humongous human blob that is possible, but I think its unlikely

And as to the possibility of the latter...I mean he hit .318 in the spring. I realize spring training stats are usually worthless but they do still provide some measure of context. If fielder forgot how to hit a baseball which his current stats would lead you to believe there would have been some sign of it in the spring

less publicized story is that he leads the league in Ks. i shouldn't be surprised. bunch of 3s and 4s in that column lately

meanwhile as if to demonstrate how self-defeating it is to freak out about bad starts this early, springer 3/3 to raise his avg from .205 to .255