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2014 MLB DFS Thread 2014 MLB DFS Thread

06-06-2014 , 12:38 PM
Is it worth paying up for darvish and cueto today with so many good cheaper options? Also is Lynn a good enough pitcher to make a Toronto stack -ev?

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06-06-2014 , 12:39 PM
Has anyone tried stacking 3 mini stacks of 1-3 hitters or 2-4 And taking the top 3 teams in your stackable mind to lower variance? I feel when it comes down to my two that I need to pick on a stacked roster I won't look below anyone hitting 3rd or 4th and prefer more at bats , but slowly realizing I need hrs to win gpps
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06-06-2014 , 12:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Priptonite
I wish there were an easier way to assess variance vs making bad plays. I think it came up earlier in the thread but it's so hard in DFS to determine if a losing streak is due to suboptimal plays or just variance.
There really isn't an easy way.
Couple things i like to do:
Look at your guys who have a real low percentage owned. Figure out if there was something you missed.
Look at high percentage owned guys who you didn't own. Same thing.
Take a look at players you know are good and compare your LU to theirs. If their picks make sense, good. If they seem out of the blue, you may want to do some deeper digging.
Try and look at close decisions you had, why you picked the one you did, and see how it worked out.

I'll give you an example from last night. I finished on the bubble 6/10 in the DD 109 double up. So here is how i went through my LU:

Pitching: Pitching was a crap shoot last night, any points i won/lost vs the field i'm calling variance

C: had montero. highly owned, performed well. good play by me
1B: Davis. played ok. debated between him and pujols. he played better than pujols. goldy was the guy to own. I definitely understand the thinking here, i decided to save the money. was paying up for goldy correct play, maybe, this is one of those things to kind of keep in mind
2B: not a huge game, but ok. highly owned. ok with it
3B: beltre. played ok. highly owned. thing to look at here is prado put up more points. this combined with goldy outperforming davis makes me think i may have underestimated ARI in coors last night. salary wise, davis+beltre is close to goldy+prado. This may not have been variance and my have been a poor decision on my part
SS: tulo, highly owned, put up a ton of points. 50% owned in the 109, however owings was 30% owned and put up crazy points. this is an obv variance situation.
OF1: parra highly owned, played well
OF2: peralta 20% owned, played well, probalby variance in my favor
OF3: Calhoun also 20% owned, but went 0/3. looking at similar price, dickerson and stubbs both did better. i think calhoun was in a good spot, so i think this was some negative variance, but again, a situation where i may have underestimated coors effect.

Comparing my LU to a couple other good players:
me vs Hoop: only 3 player difference. he had owings
me vs MrW: several different players. he had owings, goldy, and better pitching
me vs Angryfish: 6 players different. i out hit him, but he had wily peralta who got him the points needed to pass me.

so all in all, my guys performed well, maybe a couple spots i could have done better. for the simple reason of tulo outplaying even his ridic salary, but still getting beat handily by owings, i'm going to chalk this loss to variance. Despite that, the common theme for spots i could have improved was i didn't take the coors plays. While I'm not going to make some huge change based on one game, its just a note i'll make to myself to watch in the future.
Comparing to the other good players, 2 out of 3 outperformed me on pitching. Even on garbage pitching days like today, need to work harder at that. Also 2/3 didn't have tulo. I'm sure if you asked them, they would say they were hoping for 15-20 out of owings, not 60+. however they would probably also tell me that even at 48, tulo also way overperformed, and for what could be expected from him, he was overprice.



so thats how i do my game postmortems and try to decide how much variance is playing a role. maybe a waste of time, but i think doing this consistently can be useful.
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06-06-2014 , 01:08 PM
Thanks philly, I think that's good analysis. I usually compare my rosters to my opponents when the games start, but not postmortem, which I should probably start doing.
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06-06-2014 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTilt24/7
Also is Lynn a good enough pitcher to make a Toronto stack -ev?
Lynn doesn't turn into a pumpkin until Aug, but no, I wouldn't sit any hitter(s) I was thinking of playing because he's too good.
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06-06-2014 , 02:37 PM
I had no intention of playing this dumb 4pm slate, but with Col looking so iffy it seems like a nice opportunity. 20-19 Dodgers
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06-06-2014 , 03:57 PM
Thoughts on Weaver tonight?

The win on FF is worth 6 Ks and he's the biggest favorite on the board. Not really in love with it but he's like -200.
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06-06-2014 , 04:35 PM
I agree you need to check the winners rosters but at the same time when I do in gpps and the guy has 10-20 entries that doesn't help IMO all that is having a bankroll to blow vs skill
For example in the 300k DK perfect last week some guy had like 11k in entries or like 50 total. No one can defend in the long run that's skill. I can stack each team 1-6 or 1-4 6-7 and find two plug guys.
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06-06-2014 , 04:38 PM
I do agree with looking at your heavy owned vs low owned and look at thought process.

However I think the industry has so many fish that these roto grinders pod casts and other twitter players giving out Advice leads to some high ownage numbers

Plus there have been numerous occasions I have listened to them where these pros are giving out advice on there#1 guys etc and out of 20 lineups don't own em so it's like they are manipulating the public and Gpp players to ow these and stay away maybe from there true gems

Alsmizzle n csuram are two that have def gone all in on guys then don't own em
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06-06-2014 , 04:55 PM
This is what I'm on right now in my cash games:

C Alex Avila $37,200
1B Adam Lind $84,400
2B Y. Solarte $39,900
3B Manny Machado $70,100
SS J.J. Hardy $51,800
OF 1 Adam Jones $76,800
OF 2 Matt Joyce $49,100
OF 3 Craig Gentry $38,500
UTIL 1 Oscar Taveras $45,300
UTIL 2 Nelson Cruz $121,300
SP 1 Johnny Cueto $122,700
SP 2 Tyson Ross $97,600
SP 3 Yu Darvish $154,700

0 players from the Coors game which is probably incorrect. Really high on Baltimore tonight though
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06-06-2014 , 05:47 PM
Call me crazy but I think the braves rock and destroy McCarthy tonight
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06-06-2014 , 05:56 PM
I'm actually feeling good about fading the Rockies. Ryu is pretty good and the Rockies lineup looks bad
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06-06-2014 , 06:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TasteIsKing9
I agree you need to check the winners rosters but at the same time when I do in gpps and the guy has 10-20 entries that doesn't help IMO all that is having a bankroll to blow vs skill
For example in the 300k DK perfect last week some guy had like 11k in entries or like 50 total. No one can defend in the long run that's skill. I can stack each team 1-6 or 1-4 6-7 and find two plug guys.
if someone tried to stack every game as robotically as you suggest, they would be a huge loser. Just as entering 50 random teams looking to get lucky is obviously not skill. If you break down a decent players 10+ teams in any given GPP I highly doubt you'd find randomness to be the theme.
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06-06-2014 , 07:02 PM
Feeling pretty good about today after finishing the lineups. Got Kyle Blanks a lot as my best cheap play and hammered Dallas Keuchel as one of my pitchers in most GPPs. Been doing alright the last few days after a few week slump, so hopefully can break out today and get back on track.

GL today bros
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06-06-2014 , 07:07 PM
I hate my lineups tonight. Screwed up again. Oh well.

Steele vs thepr0phet Steele leads 5-3

https://www.fanduel.com/contest/4628...neup/33581753/

Steele vs youngvince vince leads 3-0

https://www.fanduel.com/contest/4627...neup/33581893/
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06-06-2014 , 07:08 PM
Decided to change the bulk of my DFS play from DK to FD. No real reason behind it other than bigger payouts and bigger player pool. Obv need to adjust how I assess players a bit, but shouldnt be an issue.

Heres to hoping for a successful day 1 of a full slate. Maybe Ill bink a GPP on DK or something now to suck me back!
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06-06-2014 , 07:15 PM
Welp, opted to pay up for Jones instead of Donaldson at the same price point. Hopefully mistakes weren't made.
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06-06-2014 , 07:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
I hate my lineups tonight. Screwed up again. Oh well.

Steele vs thepr0phet Steele leads 5-3

https://www.fanduel.com/contest/4628...neup/33581753/

Steele vs youngvince vince leads 3-0

https://www.fanduel.com/contest/4627...neup/33581893/
I don't understand the Stroman pick at all.
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06-06-2014 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Priptonite
I don't understand the Stroman pick at all.
Me either. Originally had my Cueto lineup.
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06-06-2014 , 07:57 PM
Donaldson already looking good. I tried to fit him in with Jones/Yoenis everywhere I could.

Imo a lot of the better pitching matchups came from the 2nd tier of pitchers in Weaver/Hamels/Ross and even Roark.

Of course I have Darvish in a few spots but with Weaver at -200 tonight, it's hard to pass him up at his price.
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06-06-2014 , 08:10 PM
Sighhhhhhh Cueto
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06-06-2014 , 08:28 PM
How you gonna let 80 yr old Jimmy Rollins homer off you, ffs
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06-06-2014 , 08:38 PM
How many has Lind LOB today? 13?
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06-06-2014 , 08:42 PM
Feels like more
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06-06-2014 , 09:00 PM
Yu too.... **** me
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