Quote:
Originally Posted by falldown
I like this sort of discussion, so I'll throw in what tipped the scales for me.
Barkley is playing for a bad team that will lose most of their games, will be playing from behind, and Fournette is playing for a good team that I think is playoff bound and will be in the lead more often than not.
The Giants have an elite WR and TE that I think will score a bunch of their TDs and the Jags have Fournette and not much else. Since I think the Giants will average around 2 TDs a game, and Odell and Engram are going to get some, there's not much left for Barkley.
I liked Fournette's situation better for several reasons.
Running back is 20% about talent and 80% about opportunity, IMO. A bad running back can look good with the right chances.
QB is closer to 50/50 and WR is more like 75 talent /25 opportunity.
Of course with Fournette out, the Jags are not good.
I think ultimately that talent wins out even over seeming opportunity, and the times I've bet on opportunity over talent, even at running back, it's almost always been a mistake. (That's how you end up reaching on "lead backs" who are out of a job by week 5.) I'd weigh it much more closer to 50/50; even when teams want to give the job to a lesser player, talent usually wins out before too long.
Like I said, I considered them close in a league I play in which gives you a point for rushing first downs, because I liked Fournette's chances to pile up a lot of those in favorable game scripts. But PPR is the exact opposite; playing from behind absolutely benefits Barkley in that case, because they'll be throwing the ball a lot and he's a great receiver. (Indeed, the bad Giants o-line, if you expected it to still be the case-- and I did-- suggests they'd not be able to get the ball downfield and would have to dump to Barkley and count on him to make plays.)
The Giants also made it clear that Barkley was their three-down back, and he has the skills to be. While the Jags may have
said they wanted Fournette to be theirs, they didn't use him that way last year, which is a big piece of evidence against it being so.
Fournette also, in all honesty, was not very efficient in 2017, relying on big plays in a fashion similar to which Barkley has this year. So both of them are similar boom-bust runners. Thus, to me it's like saying guy A might get a heavier load, but when it comes to receiving, guy A is usually going to be on the bench on third downs while guy B is going to be targeted in the passing game. In standard, there's an argument to go with the guy you think has the heavy workload. In PPR, I think you have to go with the guy who's going to get the Rs.