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Old 02-24-2018, 08:06 PM   #101
Iwreckshop
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Not really, hopefully he's fine. I'm going dong there unless you really need bregmans steals
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Old 02-25-2018, 03:26 PM   #102
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

quick check on some keepers. gotta pick 5, and at least 1 SP (giolito is my only real option, believe me)

6x6 with QS and TB, with increasing rounds over time, but the 26ths would still be 26th next season

Acuna 26th
Giolito 16th
Machado 1st
Blackmon 16th
Springer 4th (becomes a 1st next season)

Chris Taylor 26th
Gallo 26th
Souza 26th
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Old 02-25-2018, 04:57 PM   #103
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

^trade for a better pitcher imo
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Old 02-25-2018, 08:27 PM   #104
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Giolito and Blackmon seem to be givens,

I think Acuna is going to be fantastic, so if you can keep him for multiple years I'd go with him.

Springer and Machado aren't exactly values for what you're paying for them, if you want them bad you can just draft them again at their current values and be about even.

Basically, if lots of elite bats are being kept, and not available in the draft, then I'd be more inclined to keep Machado/Springer. If there will be lots of elite bats available in the draft, or if the league has lots of deeper keepers, that would incline me to go with Souza and Gallo.
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Old 02-25-2018, 10:45 PM   #105
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Who do we like better this season? Lindor or springer?
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Old 02-26-2018, 07:31 PM   #106
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

ESPN finally launched and we can do mock drafts!

I've done 3 today, here are some thoughts.

1B/3B is craaaaazy deep. Normally I'm a CI elitist, because the very best hitters tend to play there, and think top tier MI is overrated. (Seager, Lindor, Correa, etc... positional scarcity is overrated and I want to bank 30-35 HR from my top-30 picks). Guys like Travis Shaw, Kyle Seager, and Logan Morrison are practically forgotten in drafts.

There's very little difference between OF55 and OF90. At that point, I'm more looking at 1 category studs (DeShields Jr., Zimmer for cheap speed late)

That said, you need to avoid like the plague top-125 picks on 1 category guys, or guys that actively drain you in a category (roto). Hamilton, Gallo, etc. There's just so many options to fill specific categories late.

UPPPPPside young pitching is SO overrated. Give me a guy who's done it before. Aaron Nola is SP20?!?!? Luis Castillo is SP30?!?!? Don't even get me started about Ohtani. I'll take Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija 2-5 rounds later, thanks.

Thoughts?
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:06 PM   #107
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Thoughts on Severino?
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Old 02-27-2018, 01:25 AM   #108
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by TJ Eckleburg12 View Post
ESPN finally launched and we can do mock drafts!

I've done 3 today, here are some thoughts.

1B/3B is craaaaazy deep. Normally I'm a CI elitist, because the very best hitters tend to play there, and think top tier MI is overrated. (Seager, Lindor, Correa, etc... positional scarcity is overrated and I want to bank 30-35 HR from my top-30 picks). Guys like Travis Shaw, Kyle Seager, and Logan Morrison are practically forgotten in drafts.

There's very little difference between OF55 and OF90. At that point, I'm more looking at 1 category studs (DeShields Jr., Zimmer for cheap speed late)

That said, you need to avoid like the plague top-125 picks on 1 category guys, or guys that actively drain you in a category (roto). Hamilton, Gallo, etc. There's just so many options to fill specific categories late.

UPPPPPside young pitching is SO overrated. Give me a guy who's done it before. Aaron Nola is SP20?!?!? Luis Castillo is SP30?!?!? Don't even get me started about Ohtani. I'll take Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija 2-5 rounds later, thanks.

Thoughts?
Generally agree with all the above, I cannot believe how high buxton is being ranked
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Old 02-27-2018, 07:00 AM   #109
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

TJ,

Nice post, I agree with most of it including specific examples, with the exception of Nola.

Forget upside for a second (which is elite ace) his rates are already eliteish. If you're dinging him for 2016 that's about as unlucky as I've ever seen.




20th looks like a true bargain. No idea what his NFBC ADP is but I bet it looks more like 12-15th than 20th by opening day and I think that's more fair/maybe still a bit of a bargain.
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Old 03-01-2018, 11:18 PM   #110
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Thoughts on Didi Gregorious as a mid/late 10s round pickup for SS
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Old 03-01-2018, 11:49 PM   #111
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

I don’t like how the sites are handling Ohtani. Clearly you should be able to start him at SP AND DH in the same week if you want to. Because, I mean, the Angels can and will do that. The limiting factor is that you have to use two lineup spots.

Not saying you should start him at DH and SP in the same week but you should be able to.


You should be able to do this with any pitcher if you want
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Old 03-02-2018, 01:32 AM   #112
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Originally Posted by DonkOneMore View Post
Yelich traded to Brewers, Cain signed with Brewers. Seems odd, since now Domingo Santana is a bench bat...
They are planning to play Braun at 1B so there might be enough AB's for all 4 of them to go around? If no one gets traded it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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Old 03-02-2018, 05:32 AM   #113
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Thoughts on Severino?
I think he's legit, if the K-rate is for real there's no reason he can't do what he did last year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Luffy View Post
Thoughts on Didi Gregorious as a mid/late 10s round pickup for SS
I like Gregorius a lot. 25-HR SS don't grow on trees, and the lineup is only getting better.
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Old 03-02-2018, 05:34 AM   #114
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by willie24 View Post
I donít like how the sites are handling Ohtani. Clearly you should be able to start him at SP AND DH in the same week if you want to. Because, I mean, the Angels can and will do that. The limiting factor is that you have to use two lineup spots.

Not saying you should start him at DH and SP in the same week but you should be able to.


You should be able to do this with any pitcher if you want
Clearly, the solution is to play daily leagues and throw weekly leagues in the trash, where they belong.
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Old 03-02-2018, 08:08 AM   #115
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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They are planning to play Braun at 1B so there might be enough AB's for all 4 of them to go around? If no one gets traded it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Does that make Thames a platoon guy?
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Old 03-02-2018, 08:09 AM   #116
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

TJ, are you doing the Sheep or Peehs game you did last year? I enjoyed that.
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Old 03-02-2018, 02:16 PM   #117
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Does that make Thames a platoon guy?
It appears so.
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Old 03-02-2018, 03:03 PM   #118
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Who would Thames be platooning with? He's a bench bat unless there's an injury, I would think.
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Old 03-02-2018, 03:49 PM   #119
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

DeGrom or Archer in a points league with QS in addition to W's and L's?
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Old 03-02-2018, 05:35 PM   #120
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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TJ, are you doing the Sheep or Peehs game you did last year? I enjoyed that.
For sure, I just haven't gotten around to making the OP yet
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Old 03-02-2018, 07:08 PM   #121
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

I prefer deGrom over Archer.
If Archer was in the NL instead of AL East I'd have them ranked equally
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Old 03-02-2018, 07:43 PM   #122
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

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Originally Posted by yankeys316 View Post
Who would Thames be platooning with? He's a bench bat unless there's an injury, I would think.


I canít see it happening. But, if you look at Braun vs RHP the last 2 years and Thames last year against RHP...

In reality, I imagine they just rotate Braun to the OF and Thames in at 1B 2 or 3 days a week.
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Old 03-02-2018, 09:22 PM   #123
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Please help me understand.

I am in a 12-team NL-only auction keeper league. 5x5 with OPB. Most of the best players are kept (T. Turner at $22, Blackmon at $15, Bellinger at $7, etc.). Every year at our draft the top players go for $50+ (last year Goldschmidt went for $70) and every team has several $1 players.

Positions are
C
C (bench)
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
OF
OF
OF (bench)
OF (bench)
MI (bench)
CI (bench)
UTIL (starts)
9 pitchers (3 start)

I use a variety of online tools to determine auction value. Most have the top player around $40, which is completely unrealistic in our league. I have been playing with the settings, however, and--knowing that my last three pitcher will likely be $1, I have changed the settings from $260 total to $257 and changed 9P to 3P. Likewise, I have subtracted an additional $3 from the $260 and eliminated 3 hitters. This has changed the auction values considerably (most expensive player now $70).

This seems like a correct strategy if I know these players won't start and I will only be spending $1 on them anyway. Am I missing something or should I be correcting the league settings in this way?
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Old 03-02-2018, 10:45 PM   #124
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by TJ Eckleburg12 View Post
Clearly, the solution is to play daily leagues and throw weekly leagues in the trash, where they belong.
Even if you do this why can’t you start him at both SP and DH the day he pitches? I don’t know if the Angels ever plan to forfeit use of the DH (it’s probably a bad strategy) but if they do you should have the option of doing the same thing, i.e starting him at DH or ‘letting him hit’.
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Old 03-03-2018, 01:00 AM   #125
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Re: 2018 Fantasy Baseball Thread

El C,

Yes, in regards to bench players, thats exactly how I use the Fangraphs auction calculator. I assume all bench spots are filled by $1 players, and subtract those from the total auction budget and from the number of roster spots.

However the values still will not always line up with what players actually go for in our league, nor should they.
Those values that the calculator spits out are telling you how much production the players are projected to provide - not necessarily how much teams will (or should) spend on them.

So I don't think I would try to manipulate the output to match what the highest priced players actually go for. Just use that knowledge to your advantage. Either by knowing in advance that you will have to over pay for a 1st round type talent, and therefore plan on taking more $1 players at the end, OR pass on the over priced superstars, knowing that its a mathematical certainty that there will be lots of mid range bargains.

Remember you are trying to build a roster that has the most total $ value possible in the starting lineup, and enough $1-$3 players that you have a good chance to hit on a couple breakouts. Those guys have the most room to return a huge profit, and the league winners typically hit on two or more of them.
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