Two Plus Two Poker Forums Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Poker Theory General poker theory

11-05-2018, 03:04 PM   #26
robert_utk
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: ValueTown
Posts: 3,529
Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KT_Purple Well the OP is obviously a very intuitive mathematical player, because his thread's premise is correct Player A can have a mix of bluffs to value ratio but if he is a GTO player he will give the correct pot odds, i.e., tailor his bet sizing to fit the window, in fact he can always give player B an indifferent decision, he can have the exact nuts and min bet into a huge pot for example Player B is indifferent and cannot make a profit no matter what he does, the only difference is variance. Should player B have an infinite bankroll he should always call. If he has exactly a kelly bankroll he can call 50% of the time. anything other than a kelly bankroll he should fold 100%

This is incorrect, due to card removal effect. Neither player knows the other’s cards. Folding 100 percent of your blockers would lose money (as well as be silly exploitable).

As for Kelly, unless your stack is about 5 percent of your net worth, every +EV bet you could make on a poker table will be comfortably below Kelly Criterion.

11-05-2018, 06:15 PM   #27
ArtyMcFly
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Enchantment Under the Sea
Posts: 10,077
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KT_Purple This is an extreme example but Player A's sizing can make all of his hands indifferent to a call Player B is indifferent and cannot make a profit no matter what he does, the only difference is variance.
This isn't true in the real game of poker. It's only true in so-called "toy games" where one player's polarized range consists of value hands that win 100% of the time, and bluffs that never win when called, and the other player's range consists solely of bluffcatchers.
In real games, both ranges contain lots of mid-strength hands. The "pure" bluff-catchers do indeed break even, so there's no harm in folding those (due to "indifference"), but you obviously don't fold the second nuts if villain's value-betting range contains the third nuts.

 11-06-2018, 09:40 AM #28 KT_Purple journeyman   Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 296 Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers yea, this is obviously an idealized model, if you have blockers to the nuts, then ofc you shove, then player A is the one who is last in and must make a call. Player B can RAISE, and the roles are reversed, because now player A and player B have switched roles this is obviously idealized, it obv depends on stack sizes, also, ICM skews this in tournaments but, OP's premise is correct, theoretically, you are not supposed to ever call a river bet, we choose to make calls because we want to win and aren't satisfied with breaking even and also because most tables don't have stack sizes where you can raise fold rivers in an idealized game of poker everyone would start with 300-500 BBs tho in theory, tho, OPs premise is definitely correct, there should never be a flat call OTR in an idealized game Last edited by KT_Purple; 11-06-2018 at 09:51 AM.
11-06-2018, 10:34 AM   #29
robert_utk
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: ValueTown
Posts: 3,529
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KT_Purple yea, this is obviously an idealized model, if you have blockers to the nuts, then ofc you shove, then player A is the one who is last in and must make a call. Player B can RAISE, and the roles are reversed, because now player A and player B have switched roles this is obviously idealized, it obv depends on stack sizes, also, ICM skews this in tournaments but, OP's premise is correct, theoretically, you are not supposed to ever call a river bet, we choose to make calls because we want to win and aren't satisfied with breaking even and also because most tables don't have stack sizes where you can raise fold rivers in an idealized game of poker everyone would start with 300-500 BBs tho in theory, tho, OPs premise is definitely correct, there should never be a flat call OTR in an idealized game

No. This is the theory forum. So, when you say “in theory yadda yadda” you have to back it up. Also, I can not tell from your posts that you have even read the thread.

When you have a bluff catcher with a good blocker, you call. There is such a thing as a call range, in theory and in reality.

11-06-2018, 02:32 PM   #30
ArtyMcFly
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Enchantment Under the Sea
Posts: 10,077
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KT_Purple theoretically, you are not supposed to ever call a river bet
Are you just trolling?
If calling is profitable, you absolutely should be calling.

 11-06-2018, 06:02 PM #31 Bob148 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2012 Location: takin it to the streets Posts: 9,934 Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers (hands that can beat a bluff) + (hands that can beat some value hands but not enough to raise) + (hands that can raise for value) + (hands that can raise as a bluff) = X X = total range to be used in mdf calc. (yes, hands that cannot beat a bluff are discarded without loss of ev or any need for accountability as these hands got to the river through +ev plays.)
11-06-2018, 06:21 PM   #32
robert_utk
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: ValueTown
Posts: 3,529
Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bob148 (hands that can beat a bluff) + (hands that can beat some value hands but not enough to raise) + (hands that can raise for value) + (hands that can raise as a bluff) = X X = total range to be used in mdf calc. (yes, hands that cannot beat a bluff are discarded without loss of ev or any need for accountability as these hands got to the river through +ev plays.)

In position, I agree, but making an mdf call from oop in a non-polar river requires the oop caller to discount his betting or checkraising combos since he did not bet or checkraise.

So the actual location of mdf for a pot sized river shove is lower in range when oop vs ip.

When I am in position, I can simply discard my potential bluffs, and call the top 1/3 of my range vs a 1x shove.

When I am oop, non-polar, and have checked river, mdf is 50th percentile combo.

 11-06-2018, 06:35 PM #33 Bob148 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2012 Location: takin it to the streets Posts: 9,934 Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers Yes, pointing out the distinction between (a flop or turn calling range) and (a flop or turn betting range) followed by river action is an important difference as the range composition is very different. a calling range is basically (draws, bluffcatchers, and slowplays) a flop or turn betting range is (strong hands, draws, and the occasional pure bluff) Note that the latter is much more polarized and as such the river rules are different. So if I've bet the flop and turn, called by the bb twice, then he donks the river? I'm folding a big chunk of my range because my busted draws that can't beat a bluff don't matter.
11-06-2018, 11:40 PM   #34
Bob148
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012
Location: takin it to the streets
Posts: 9,934
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 When I am oop, non-polar, and have checked river, mdf is 50th percentile combo.
I think this is slightly off, depending on how many busted draws you should have in range that cannot beat a bluff.

 11-07-2018, 04:07 PM #35 KT_Purple journeyman   Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 296 Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers I didnt mean this to be construed as trolling. I did misunderstand the OPS question. Seems he is doing well on every street but the river but there is not really a GTO on the river. If everyone played perfect GTO then the bettor would lay even money odds to the caller, and the caller is supposed to always fold or raise. Honestly it's just a simple and straightforward result from the fact that calling is always ev neutral. If that is the case, then variance control is the only profit. Therefore we should always raise or fold rivers and never call against a GTO player. No one plays GTO on the river because we don't play to just break even but flat calling the river is exploitable. Aside from the math, the person who actually calls the river more often when ahead is the winner of the game Not trolling, just saying that theory states to fold or raise every river (ignoring stack sizes ofc)
 11-07-2018, 04:41 PM #36 Brokenstars Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Check out my PGC!!! Posts: 11,791 Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers You don't know what you're talking about.
11-07-2018, 04:45 PM   #37
robert_utk
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: ValueTown
Posts: 3,529
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KT_Purple I didnt mean this to be construed as trolling. I did misunderstand the OPS question. Seems he is doing well on every street but the river but there is not really a GTO on the river. If everyone played perfect GTO then the bettor would lay even money odds to the caller, and the caller is supposed to always fold or raise. Honestly it's just a simple and straightforward result from the fact that calling is always ev neutral. If that is the case, then variance control is the only profit. Therefore we should always raise or fold rivers and never call against a GTO player. No one plays GTO on the river because we don't play to just break even but flat calling the river is exploitable. Aside from the math, the person who actually calls the river more often when ahead is the winner of the game Not trolling, just saying that theory states to fold or raise every river (ignoring stack sizes ofc)

No, you still have a call range when deep stacked.

You have every option available in the ‘poker rules’, remember?

Now, I am happy to go through some back and forth with you, provided that you really want to learn. But if you just want to make broadly incorrect statements about theory in the theory forum, that will not go so well.

11-07-2018, 06:17 PM   #38
KT_Purple
journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 296
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly Are you just trolling? If calling is profitable, you absolutely should be calling.
calling is never profitable if it's always laying even money odds, it's ev neutral if the sizing is correct

it's a straightforward result, if player A has one bluff combo and one value combo in his range to bet the river and bets pot, Player B cannot change his average outcome. His ev is exactly zero no matter what he does. Raise, fold, call have the exact same value. GTO says fold because of the finiteness of your bankroll.

But why play theory on the river? If you are losing money on the river it's because your opponents are outplaying you

11-07-2018, 06:22 PM   #39
robert_utk
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: ValueTown
Posts: 3,529
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KT_Purple calling is never profitable if it's always laying even money odds, it's ev neutral if the sizing is correct it's a straightforward result, if player A has one bluff combo and one value combo in his range to bet the river and bets pot, Player B cannot change his average outcome. His ev is exactly zero no matter what he does. Raise, fold, call have the exact same value. GTO says fold because of the finiteness of your bankroll. But why play theory on the river? If you are losing money on the river it's because your opponents are outplaying you

If you really want to construct lol toy games:

Player B holds one of the cards that are required for Player A to hold the bluff combo. Player A can not know this.

Player B calls.

Profit.

11-07-2018, 06:27 PM   #40
Bob148
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012
Location: takin it to the streets
Posts: 9,934
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 it's a straightforward result, if player A has one bluff combo and one value combo in his range to bet the river and bets pot, Player B cannot change his average outcome. His ev is exactly zero no matter what he does. Raise, fold, call have the exact same value. GTO says fold because of the finiteness of your bankroll.
If player A bluffs 50% of the time as above, I would call with any hand that can beat a bluff getting 2:1 for decent profit.

1/3 pot investment ---> 50% pot return on investment = decent profit.

11-07-2018, 06:27 PM   #41
Zuko
enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 78
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KT_Purple if player A has one bluff combo and one value combo in his range to bet the river and bets pot, Player B cannot change his average outcome. His ev is exactly zero no matter what he does. Raise, fold, call have the exact same value.
i dont think that is right.... i prefer a call if he has 1 combo of both

11-07-2018, 07:12 PM   #42
ArtyMcFly
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Enchantment Under the Sea
Posts: 10,077
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KT_Purple calling is never profitable if it's always laying even money odds, it's ev neutral if the sizing is correct it's a straightforward result, if player A has one bluff combo and one value combo in his range to bet the river and bets pot, Player B cannot change his average outcome. His ev is exactly zero no matter what he does.
Nevermind that a villain would be overbluffing if he had a 1:1 ratio in that spot (it should be 2 value combos for each 1 combo of air, if a PSB is used), in what world does villain only bet 2 combos on the river?
In most river spots villain will have at least 3 combos of the nuts or 2nd nuts (but often more), but he'll also have maybe 30-40 combos of hands that can bet for value and get called by worse more than 50% of the time.
If you literally only bet 1 combo of the nuts and one bluff, you'd be leaving loads of money on the table.
Quick example: you open BTN v BB and bet and barrel on AK59. River is a 7. Are you only betting one combo of AA on the river (balanced with one combo of JTs or something), and are you checking back two combos of AA, and all 3 of KK and 9 of AK and another 9 each of A5 and A9?
Please don't be silly. You bet a LOT of combos, some of which are the near nuts, but many more that still win the majority of the time. You balance those by bluffing with an appropriate number of bluffs.
It can be the case that hero bets A5 on the river (hoping to get called by AJ etc) but villain binked a better two pairs with A9/A7, or flopped a set of fives. It would be idiotic for the BB to fold a set of fives on that runout, because it's so much better than a bluffcatcher. It beats many of the value-hands.
It would be completely ludicrous to fold 100% of his range. What would be the point of calling flop or turn (or even pre-flop) if he never calls the river? Your bluff-catchers break even and serve to make villain "indifferent" to bluffing with air, but better hands than bluff-catchers call on the river because they actually make a profit.

Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 11-07-2018 at 07:18 PM.

11-08-2018, 03:34 PM   #43
KT_Purple
journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 296
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

overbluffing is exploitable

it's simpler than that Artie, it's not complicated. I'm just giving you an idealized situation, and arguing that folding rivers 100% of the time (or raising with the nut or nut blocker) is the GTO response to the GTO of betting the river

if opponent is overbluffing he is not playing GTO, he is playing exploitably, and we can call more frequently, but if he is not overbluffing and his sizing lays us even money odds, and we don't have the nuts we should fold.

it's just a function of the fact that our bankroll is finite

Quote:
 i dont think that is right.... i prefer a call if he has 1 combo of both
prefer, not prefer, it doesn't matter, if you don't have the nuts and villain has one combo that beats you and one that doesn't you are supposed to fold rivers. the fact that you prefer to call is because you want to risk your money to make money, GTO doesn't have that restriction, it will seek highest profit/lowest variance, it's goal is technically to double the roll before busting and while you make exactly the same amount of money calling vs folding, you will double your roll more often by folding. this is pretty much the basis of all gambling using kelley criterion

this is honestly the skill part of the game and it does not surprise me that there are people that can play mathematically precise and win on every street but the river. the river is technically where all the the skill in poker is revealed

11-08-2018, 04:55 PM   #44
robert_utk
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: ValueTown
Posts: 3,529
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KT_Purple overbluffing is exploitable it's simpler than that Artie, it's not complicated. I'm just giving you an idealized situation, and arguing that folding rivers 100% of the time (or raising with the nut or nut blocker) is the GTO response to the GTO of betting the river if opponent is overbluffing he is not playing GTO, he is playing exploitably, and we can call more frequently, but if he is not overbluffing and his sizing lays us even money odds, and we don't have the nuts we should fold. it's just a function of the fact that our bankroll is finite prefer, not prefer, it doesn't matter, if you don't have the nuts and villain has one combo that beats you and one that doesn't you are supposed to fold rivers. the fact that you prefer to call is because you want to risk your money to make money, GTO doesn't have that restriction, it will seek highest profit/lowest variance, it's goal is technically to double the roll before busting and while you make exactly the same amount of money calling vs folding, you will double your roll more often by folding. this is pretty much the basis of all gambling using kelley criterion this is honestly the skill part of the game and it does not surprise me that there are people that can play mathematically precise and win on every street but the river. the river is technically where all the the skill in poker is revealed

Why does GTO bring out the crazies?

What about mathematically precise players that crush every street? Those people exist. They do not overfold. FYI.

 11-08-2018, 05:41 PM #45 Brokenstars Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Check out my PGC!!! Posts: 11,791 Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers There isn't any value is further discussing the topic with an individual claiming that you should never call rivers. @Arty @Robert
 11-09-2018, 12:01 AM #46 outfit old hand     Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,273 Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers Hahahahahaha I guess this is not the best post either. This thread is great. Edit: I only read the first ten posts. I did not even know there was another 20 or so.
11-13-2018, 10:04 AM   #47
KT_Purple
journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 296
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by robert_utk Why does GTO bring out the crazies? What about mathematically precise players that crush every street? Those people exist. They do not overfold. FYI.
hmmmm....i was just mentioning a mathematical artifact that really has no use in the real world, it's interesting for the pure math but it doesn't mean anything. Maybe mathematicians are crazy tho so maybe that's why, i dunno

you seem extremely mean and thuggish in this thread, no advice except trolling, i wonder what your other posts look like, meh, nevermind i don't care

 11-13-2018, 10:46 AM #48 Bob148 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2012 Location: takin it to the streets Posts: 9,934 Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers KT, It's one thing to stand by your posts. It's quite another thing to never admit that you're wrong. Pretty much everyone here agrees that folding 100% of pure bluffcatchers is incorrect, despite there being no loss of value vs gto. This is exactly because folding this much is highly exploitable, thus it's not good poker. If you actually adhered to this folding frequency, your opponent could bluff more on every single round of betting.
 11-13-2018, 12:40 PM #49 KT_Purple journeyman   Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 296 Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers I agree Bob. Playing GTO on the river is not good poker. I think my argument states exactly why. GTO says to fold the river 100% (or raise with nut blockers). It's merely a mathematical quirk, but it is true. I stand by my advice. Forget about GTO on the river. I think it would be more understandable if I said GTO says to raise or fold the river and never call, but it's mathematically the same as saying fold 100% of rivers, and it's just a mathematical oddity but it is definitely true. Last edited by KT_Purple; 11-13-2018 at 01:04 PM.
11-14-2018, 02:12 PM   #50
just_grindin
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,558
Re: Winning in almost every spot...except for flatting rivers

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KT_Purple I agree Bob. Playing GTO on the river is not good poker. I think my argument states exactly why. GTO says to fold the river 100% (or raise with nut blockers). It's merely a mathematical quirk, but it is true. I stand by my advice. Forget about GTO on the river. I think it would be more understandable if I said GTO says to raise or fold the river and never call, but it's mathematically the same as saying fold 100% of rivers, and it's just a mathematical oddity but it is definitely true.
This is incorrect. If you want to say bankroll management is the game you're playing then GTO would say then don't play the game at all not fold the rivers.

If you sit down and play the game, the GTO strategy is to call with a frequency that is equal to the frequency your opponent bluffs.

If you do not you actually 'cost' yourself the equity you surrender in the pot, which is non-zero.

Not a perfect to say 'cost' because typically in the toy games folding is EV 0 so you don't actually lose anymore money from your stack and the pot was just magically there with money it.

In real life you do lose money always by not calling, though, because you contributed money to the pot to see the river.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Links to Popular Forums     News, Views, and Gossip     Beginners Questions     Marketplace & Staking     Casino & Cardroom Poker     Internet Poker     NL Strategy Forums     Poker Goals & Challenges     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Sporting Events     Politics     Other Other Topics Two Plus Two     About the Forums     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum     The Two Plus Two Bonus Program     Two Plus Two Pokercast     The Best of Two Plus Two Marketplace & Staking     Commercial Marketplace     General Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     Staking         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Coaching & Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, and Gossip     Poker Goals & Challenges     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     That's What She Said!     Poker Legislation & PPA Discussion hosted by Rich Muny     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker General Poker Strategy     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     Poker Theory     Psychology No Limit Hold'em Strategy     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em Strategy     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker Strategy     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community     Tournament Events Other Poker Strategy     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker Live Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker         Venues & Communities         Regional Communities     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Cash Strategy     Tournament Strategy Internet Poker     Internet Poker         nj.partypoker.com         Global Poker         MPN – Microgaming Poker Network         Big Ugly Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports, sponsored by Draftboard.com         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics     History     Business, Finance, and Investing     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Travel     Health and Fitness     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming International Forums     Deutsch         BBV [German]     Français     Two Plus Two en Español

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:45 PM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top