Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 1,027
Hi everyone,
I am trying to build up the intuitive explanation of reasons behind c-bet in NLH - why we c-bet and what's the optimal bet size - by using the following simple example:
we raised preflop from LP with A5s, BB called and the flop has two spades, so we hit the nuts fd.
BB checks.
Should we bet here? and why? and how much?
First of all, let's reduce this game to a very simple one : we bet and either BB folds OR BB cals and both of you check to the showdown.
In the first case we win 100% of times.
In the second case we win ~33% of times - because we have 9 outs and 2 streets ahead.
Now, let's say that BB folds with frequency X : [0, 1], hence he calls with frequency 1-X[0,1]
So, on average we win this game with the following frequency:
Y = X * 1 + (1 - X) * 1/3 = 2/3 * X + 1/3
For example if BB folds 1/2 of times, then Y = 2/3
Now, the game of poker is not that simple :
1) sometimes BB check-raises OTF and we don't see the turn and the river
2) sometimes we don't complete the flush OTT and fold.
etc..
So, we win this hand less than Y of times from the formula above. For example if BB folds 50% of times, we win the hand less than 2/3 of times. If we can estimate actual winning frequency as accurately as possible, we can derive the bet size.
Questions :
- is this explanation correct?
- how we can reduce our win frequency of the simple game to be closer to the actual one?