My current approach to completing from the SB when there are limpers and you have a good price is to stick to the reasonably strong stuff - pocket pairs, suited aces, suited connectors - and to fold the weaker stuff like suited kings, suited gappers, and lots of offsuit stuff. I take this strategy from
https://redchippoker.com/complete-sm...in-live-poker/. After reading the article, it seemed like it makes sense, and didn't seem worth my time to study it in much more depth. But now I find myself curious, and wanting to explore it more deeply.
Let's take a spot where you're in the SB with 74o and there were three limpers. You've got 9:1 pot odds. Say we're playing $1/2.
When I try to analyze this with some math, it seems like a pretty slam dunk call. It seems like folding is leaving a ton of money on the table.
Of course, this could just mean that my analysis is flawed. So I'm not necessarily arguing that it
is a slam dunk call, just that it seems like it is to me, and if it isn't, I'm not understanding why.
Two pair and better mining
Suppose that you use the strategy of check-folding whenever you flop something worse than two pair, and go for value when you flop two pair or better. With 74o, you flop two pair or better
about 4% of the time. If you make $25 on average when you do hit your 2p+, the SB complete is profitable. Think about it - suppose you complete and miss 24 times. You lose $1 each time, and you're down $24. Now, on the 25th attempt, you win $25. Now you're up $1. So if you can expect to win $25 when you hit, it is +EV. So then, I think the question is whether you can expect to win $25 on average.
When you complete and the BB checks, the pot will be $10 (let's just ignore rake for now), and it will be a five-way pot.
If you bet $6 on the flop, get one caller, and then bet $11 on the turn or river and get a call, you've made enough money on your 2p+ mine.
If you bet $8 and get two callers, you've also made enough money on your 2p+ mine. If you make more money on the turn and/or river, then you're doing even better!
Being in a multiway pot, it seems pretty plausible to make $25 when you hit.
Of course, there are some issues to consider:
- Reverse implied odds. Sometimes you hit and still lose. Eg. you flop trips but your opponent outkicks you.
- Being out of position, you're at a disadvantage and it's hard to maximize value.
- The textures where you do hit, your opponents probably miss. Eg. T44.
But still, even considering these issues, the bar of
averaging $25 seems pretty low. Sure, when the board comes T44, you may run in to A4 and lose some money. But more often you'll win some money from Tx or pocket pairs. Sometimes you'll lead out and everyone will fold, but more often than not in a multiway pot someone will have Tx, or a pocket pair, or perhaps a flush draw, and give you action.
If we factor in the fact that we may get to see a free card on the turn, or the fact that we may have implied odds to draw vs a flop bet, then things get even better for us. And when we have a stronger hand like A2o, we get a slight bump in EV from our showdown value.
Playing single pairs harder
Perhaps you could boost your EV a little bit by not just check-folding all single pair hands. It seems pretty tough to pull off, but possible, perhaps.
I get the impression that a big reason why playing junk hands from the SB is -EV for so many people is because they
overplay them postflop. Eg. not being disciplined with middle or bottom pair, or perhaps overplaying top pair. It makes a lot of sense that just folding these preflop would save a lot of people money. I don't disagree with that. Here, I'm interested in exploring whether playing these hands is +EV if you play correctly postflop. Or, at the very least, if you just check/fold everything that isn't two pair or better.
Last edited by adamzerner; 05-13-2019 at 05:26 PM.