Example Q8 board K9742 we put villain on a 7x one pair type hand.

River total pot is $110 and we bet $70

After doing this five times we profit $350

If villain raises once to say $350 $400 we are even or slightly behind


I'm thinking are we better of not value betting such marginal hands if we think villain has a 7x type hand 80% 90% of the time?

because..


If villain knows we value bet these type of hands they might bluff shove making it tough for us to call, but they still need to do it.

Then again we can call and profit if we believe they are doing so.

but they are going to do this with made hands to.


A opposite example is slow playing nuts or top hands on the river

Pot $110 bet $70 vs c/r'ng to say $350 $400

we make like five/six times more slow playing if we think they might bet/call or at least as much if they just bet.

Back to original question, Value betting river with marginal hands and when its best to just not bet and instead just c/c?

This might seem like a really simple question but there is so much edge in betting these hands on the river but when we get shoved on its meh.

Is your hand meant to be Q9 and not Q8? Otherwise I am not sure how you're value betting and not bluffing...

Yes Q9 oops

no interest in thread?

Your question is really about locating your hand in your perceived range, versus how well the opponent can locate his own hand in HIS own range.

Your opponent has to:

(1) Decide if his hand is anything better than a bluffcatcher

(2) Decide if your range contains lots of made hands that are not bluffs

When one or both of you are unsure about these decisions, the human tendency is to be happy to showdown for cheap/free.

You have to know your opponents. Only you can do that.

Speaking strictly from perspective of balance, you will not get called by enough of 7x hands.

Speaking from only my personal small stakes experience, you WILL get called by enough 7x to at least break even, and generate more similar calls later.

K9742. .depending on previous action..q9 is a comfortable value bet.

You have a lot of missed straight draws on this board.

In general, when you are considering bEetting thin, ask yourself how many natural bluffs you have. If it's a lot, middle pair strong kicker can certainly value bet Rivera.

Do not be afraid of the river raise..

You can deal with it when it happens.

Best way to deal with river raise is to look at the math and ask yourself how many of your hands should you call.

Know your bluffs. Know your value bets. The math is then easy. And so are your decisions.

I was completely confused with the whole post since Q8 was the hand you wrote