Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Exploitatively overbets work well when we know villain's range is capped.
For example we raise 3BB UTG BTN and BB call, say 100BB stacks.
Flop (9.5BB) A76ssd
Say BTN is a solid player. He should almost never flat a set or 2p here given the number of draws and that it's multiway. Assuming we know this... we can bet like half pot 5BB here, BTN calls BB folds.
Turn (19.5BB) A762ssdh
The 2h is a hyperblank card and improves almost none of BTN's holdings. We also know he is likely capped at TPGK or we would have seen a raise on the flop. Here we can overbet bluff for like 30BB and get a ton of folds. I would do this with hands that have a lot of equity like KQss or T9ss. And for balance we can also overbet our sets and 2p here, knowing we are pretty much always ahead.
And when we suspect villain is strong overbets can also be a good choice when we have the effective nuts. For instance we open UTG with JJcs 3BB CO calls.
Flop (6BB) J62hds
CO is a solid player. We bet 3BB and he raises to 9BB. There aren't many likely bluffs on this board so we figure he has 66 or 22 when it isn't air. We call.
Turn (24BB) J623hdss
While 54 is vaguely possible we are usually good here and don't think villain can lay down a set. It's a good spot to overbet 36BB or so. It doesn't look quite as strong as a x/r and he may think we are just overbetting QQ+.
Thanks for the examples. So in your first example. Are you second barreling with an overbet with your bluffs on blank rivers?