How should the turn card effect our flop bet and turn barrel. It should be important to barrel hands that can turn equity so we can barrel twice as a bluff or semibluff.

Now i am pondering this turn spot in a hand.
I have AQ
I open Mp and get called by SB(at 2NL)(VPIP OF 25%)

Flop is J37

Now after throwing a range together i think villain c/c here around 60% of his range here, but 1/2 of that range is Jx+ or FD. The rest is some bs GS, some PP and some BDFD floats. Now i am wondering here how often i should be barreling the turn and on what cards.

SO there are specific cards here that do well for my hand. Pretty much all 's give me at least 31% equity(some more equities than others), and all the K's give me about 30% equity. The A's and Q's obviously are best cards for me. This give me 18 turn cards to barrel on. Which means i will be barrelling about 35-36% of the time with this hand?? I am not sure if this thought process here is correct or not?

Now id like to barrel the turn more because i think villain range here is weak.
My ? to you is what are the next best cards to bet here?The cards that pair the board are good for our equity (25-28%) and the 2's are around 25% also. Now should we be betting all those cards or are certain turn cards good for removal effect/fold equity to barrel or to just c/b and perhaps bluff river??
I know this is alot but any help on turn play would be much appreciatted

spadez

I would barrel A,Q,J,2,3 and any heart. Any turn heart and I will probably double barrel with the Ah.

The cards I am crying over are 8h9hT and any K. I might end up not barreling these.

Think of some turn cards and ask yourself what hands you'd be trying to fold out if you bet again.
It might be the case that this AQ combo doesn't barrel at a high frequency. You'd likely have other hands that can/should barrel much more often, and that would bring up your overall barreling frequency.

FWIW, I don't think checking back the flop is a bad option.

I can't think of a suited connector that I would never bet on this flop, but I don't bet AhQx here.

If he's so weak that you're value betting? Ok I can get down with that, however it's thin. Vs strong players, you're gonna get eaten up on the late streets if you bet too many naked Ahx hands here.

Instead I would check back the flop turn and river unimproved and expect to win showdowns at a non negligible rate. If I improve to a strong pair or a flushdraw, then I'm almost always betting if checked to, or calling if bet into, depending on the betsize of course.

When i think of some hands on the flop, its usually not a clear cut value bet or bluff. Yes worse hands like 98s,109s or hands like or BDFD hands can call that we are beating here,but hands that that are beating us that might fold to a second bet can call too(7x,88-99's,66-44). This is why i thought i maybe I should be barreling here twice pretty often. When i played this hand out, i did actually check back because my hand has some SD value and there are a decent amount of turn cards i can call a turn lead with. When i looked it over i really only open AKo,and AQo(AJo being TP) at 2 nl from MP so I will have 6 AhX combos here. My thought here were that having the Ah in my betting range here is good for removal effect and the ability to bet when another hits the turn card.

When i played this i did check back the flop because AhQx here i think is a fine check back. I have SD value and i think i do have the best hand a majority of the time. I think if villain is calling too wide out of the sb here, than he'll have alot of marginal flop calls vs a cbet. From GS here to 7x hands to smallish-to middle PP and than the BDFD combos here also. I dont even know if a strong player here will have many flats in the SB vs MP open.

I wouldn't call myself a strong player, but if you opened for 3x in MP, I'm only flatting 99-66 in the SB, so I'd be folding half my range on that flop (66, and 88 with no heart), and I'm vulnerable to turn barrels where I don't pick up equity. (I'd usually check-raise 77 on the flop, although I can't balance it with draws, as I don't have any, and I don't station with 99/88).
If you minraised, I'll have some AJo, KTs-JTs, A9s, A8s, or something like that as well. The optimal strategy vs me would be quite different to the one that maximises EV vs someone that calls with a lot of stuff in the SB. In short, you can't really ask for a generic advice on barreling in this spot, because it's gonna depend so much on what range you're playing against.

that seems to be what snowie is doing and i don't really understand why. is it really worth it to open up a very narrow range that will be capped on alot of flops? shouldn't they play better in the 3bet range if your opponent new your ranges?

I am a big fan of double barreling strong Ax hands versus players that like to chase draws. You'll sometimes fold out hands that you are beating, but the draws still chase. Once the river comes, it will usually get checked down. If you're lucky, you'll win.

Versus some tighter opponents you can triple barrel if the heart comes on the turn. The tight player will call with their two pair or set on the turn and try and boat up on the river. When it doesn't fill, you can jam because you block so many of the flush draws they can have since you hold the ace of that suit. Tighter players are more likely to call suited aces from the SB than a hand like KJs or 97s.

I think honestly think you can cbet any turn card even if some are better than others. In my opinion the 7 is the worst card for you but the way you describe his range it s the J who could never be bet.

I also would have prefered check flop because Your hand has good equity but lose a lot of equity when called. Also you have Ah so block flush drAw and need less protection.

If you chet I think a small sizing is best so you would describe his range wider and then could cbet turn or check back turn it s ok.