Quote:
Originally Posted by jogsxyz
A couple of points.
The toy games are static. The relative values of the hands don't change. Real poker games are dynamic and relative values may change from street to street. In a three street game calling 1/2 of the time means you can only call all three bets 1/8 of the time. Still haven't seen any papers on how additional cards affect strategy. In real poker on the turn if it costs 1/4 or more of your stack to call, the correct options may be fold or go all in. If the guy has it, it'll costs all your chips to see his hand. You may as well go all in now and not give him a free draw.
Yes, if my opponent might fold a better hand to my all in or call a worse hand. But if my opponent's range is polarized, it's more like the toy game (Clare knows. She is either bluffing or has a monster). If that situation exists (or approximately so) then calling P/(P+B) on all rounds is better than going all in.
Going all in when opponent is either bluffing or has monster:
[1] if opponent is bluffing I gain nothing by going all in over calling 50% on each round. Same EV either way.
[2] if opponent has monster I lose my remaining stack S close to 100% of the time (depending on my chance of outdrawing). Calling P/(P+B) on each round, I lose (1/4)S(1/2) + (3/4)S(1/4) = 7/16S.
But in the real world, there are gains to going all in when opponent holds a medium-good hand.
[1] He may call a hand that's better than mine, but I may outdraw him.
[2] He may fold a hand that's somewhat better than mine.
[3] He may call a hand that's somewhat worse than mine.
Those gains have to outweigh the losses I incur above when he holds a monster.
If the toy game points to ~50% calling it does so when there is a lowish chance of outdrawing and when opponent's range is likely to be polarized.