There are obviously a lot of variables, including the field size, that need to be taken into consideration. e.g. How many people busted on the other tables on the first hand? (Literally everyone that's still in the tournament increases their chance of cashing a little bit when someone else busts on hand one, unless they raise-folded most of their stack).
I don't think a double up helps much so early on. As you're no doubt aware, a double-up near the bubble is magnitudes more important in the quest for a cash than one on the very first hand in a (presumably) largish field.
I play a 1k player MTT. My ITM chance with starting stack is 11%. Now I double up first hand. What is my ITM chance now?
I'm assuming 11% (110 places) are ITM, then per ICM you go from 11% in the original 1000 player field to 20.8% in the 999 player field after doubling up, assuming all other stacks remain unchanged.
(Just use an ICM calculator and set prices 1-110 all to 100$. This results in an equity of 20.80$ for the second scenario, ie a 20.8% chance to finish in the top 110 places.)
I'm assuming 11% (110 places) are ITM, then per ICM you go from 11% in the original 1000 player field to 20.8% in the 999 player field after doubling up, assuming all other stacks remain unchanged.
(Just use an ICM calculator and set prices 1-110 all to 100$. This results in an equity of 20.80$ for the second scenario, ie a 20.8% chance to finish in the top 110 places.)
What sort of 9max single table payout structure would you say approximates this small ICM tax? Would 90/10 or 80/20 be close?
Note that the 11% -> 20.8% are just the percentages of finishing in the money, so that's not the effective ICM tax for the actual prize structure (unless this was a 110 seat satellite).
You'd have to do some trial and error with an ICM calculator to find a single stable structure that approximates this. But ideally just use your actual payout structure + field size for ICM calculations, that's always going to be more accurate than compressing the calculation into a single table calc.
I'm never just aiming to finish in the money unless it's a satellite so this question is really irrelevant for the most part.
Aim to finish first and push any edge that might get you to that point. The whole idea of building up a big stack early and then just go tight and hope to not run bad and end up finishing in the money is imo worthless to me. But that's just me.
