Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
Thanks for the comment. I was surprised in not having any responses for several days.
So was I.
Anyway, I thought I would try a simulation to see the effect of just icm has on the add-on for a moderate sized Mtt.
I now realize I should have had more starting players to simulate a typical re-buy/add-on tourny. I only set it to 180 starters and the add-on period having 120 left (no re-buys), I set the payouts to the Pstars 180 MttSng, 27 paid.
I haven't got a fast way to calculate icm for large fields, I am using a python port of sicm from a previous 2+2 thread. This is a monte-carlo approximation and so does vary a bit even using quite a large number of trials (for these sized fields and payouts - as you can see in the variance of the plot).
I set the add-on to 1.5 x the starting stack for 1 full buy-in (including the rake). I'll try another sometime for 1x and 1 buy-in no rake.
I set the stacks to approximately a Gaussian dist shifted and normalised to give a starting stack of 1000 chips.
I calculated the icm value of all these added-on stacks and then went through this list taking off the add-on one by one and adjusting the prize-pool by 1 buy-in. So for each possible stack I calculated the icm with no add-on while every single other stack does have the add-on and compared the value to the original calc.
I set the buy-in to $0.91 and the rake to $0.09.
Here is a plot of the results:
The stacks shown in the plot are the pre add-on ones, the y-value is the added value you gain from taking the add-on.
As you can see it is easy to see the trend. If I have this correct it is at least break even up to the point where a player has about 5x starting stack. I suspect quite a bit of the value of the add-on is from paying for a 1.5x stack when already 1/3 the players have already dropped out of the tournament without getting any payoff.
Probably a more realistic simulation would be to set the starting players to perhaps 250 and still have the add-on players at 120, and same payout structure, this would be equivalent to having 70 re-buys before the add-on period starts. I suspect this will make the add-on more valuable.
I'll try doing this soon and also the same for a no rake add-on but only starting stack sized add-on.
I think I now realize why the 1.5x starting stack with rake is more common as the site manages to grab more money even though the tourny may last a little longer
Last edited by BaseMetal2; 03-22-2019 at 06:43 PM.