Theory of cbet bluff:value ratios on the flop and turn - Poker Theory

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Theory of cbet bluff:value ratios on the flop and turn

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12-10-2018 , 02:27 PM

kvnd

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 2,236

I've heard we should have roughly 2:1 bluff to value on the flop and 1:1 on the turn. Where do these numbers come from?

Also I imagine the board texture influences these ratios (due to the equity of our bluffs) as well as position. Does this ratio differ much on flops like A92r vs 987ss? UTG vs bb on AK9 vs QT5ss CO vs BTN?

I think it's important to know this stuff before I start breaking down what I'm doing with my range in certain spots

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12-10-2018 , 03:34 PM

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

Quote:

Originally Posted by kvnd

I've heard we should have roughly 2:1 bluff to value on the flop and 1:1 on the turn. Where do these numbers come from?

It was popularized in Matt Janda's first book, where he simplifies the math in order to set up a nicely balanced range for betting pot-sized on the river with a 2:1 value:bluff ratio.

The book suggested a 1:2 value to bluff ratio on flop, 1:1 on the turn, 2:1 on the river.

Real solutions don't really follow that pattern, and Janda himself has moved away from using the terms "value-bet" and "bluff" on any street prior to the river.
On the flop, you don't have pure value hands or pure bluffs. You've just got equity. Range advantages and equity (or lack of it) can mean your frequencies can vary considerably according to board texture/runouts.

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12-10-2018 , 09:14 PM

kvnd

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Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 2,236

hmm so something like this on K97r (spade diamond heart), where the big ace bluffs are only cbet with backdoor flush draws. What do you think? I haven't really done this before. Was kind of surprised how hard it is to find good bluffs on this flop. Makes me think I should cut down my value hands? (removing KJ)

Last edited by kvnd; 12-10-2018 at 09:27 PM.

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