Quote:
Originally Posted by Terrify
Yeah but let's imagine the pot is 100 (50 from us, 50 from villain), villain bets 50, we call. We have EV>0 if and only if we win >50% of the time (clearly), but our pot odds are 25%, so they make no sense
In one sense, EV is a somewhat arbitrary number that is used to help make the best decision. It can be defined as the change is stack size as a result of a betting decision. The baseline can be the stack size at the start of the hand or just prior to the decision or any other point as long as it is used consistently.
In OP’s case assume that decision is to call or fold. OP wants to include the 50 he initially put in the pot as a loss if he calls and loses and not include it if he wins. Therefore he is using as a baseline his stack before the hand is dealt. Fair enough. Assume a 25% win rate. Then his EV = 0.25*50-0.75*100 = -62.5. Okay – what is his EV with a fold decision? It would have to be the negative of the 50 he first put in so folding is 12.5 better than calling.
Now let’s do the EV with the stack size baseline being just before the decision. EV is then
0.25*100 – 0.75*50 = -12.5.
The fold EV is 0 for folding doesn’t change the baseline stack size. Again a 12.5 plus for folding over calling. With a consistent baseline you can consider past investments as belonging to the pot with the baseline stack size being just prior to the decision.
Sorry for such a long explanation. ZKesic’s responses are good enough.