Hey, this is a simple one i think its N choose K or N choose P OR something..

whats the formula for figuring out... " if i run it 3x as a 70% fav, what are my odds of losing 2 out of 3 flips"

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...ak-calculator/

streak calculator is different, right??

thanks guys

exactly 2 out of 3 flips or at least 2 out of 3 ?
exactly 2 out of 3 would 18.9% i guess

You just multiply the probabilities together:

.7*.3*.3 = .063

Now you can lose on run 1, run 2, or run 3 and still lose the other 2 runs so there are 3 ways for you to lose twice so we multiply this by 3 to get .189.

So there is an 18.9% probability you lose twice.

There is a caveat to this in that equities slightly change over each run because you and our opponent's equity depend on the cards still left in the deck.

As cards are revealed equities will shift slightly. Overall your win probabilities shouldn't be affected though, but it might make a difference in answering this specific question. Perhaps it won't and the net effects will be the same as the above.

I don't know that a streak calculator will work for this as I thought it only cared about consecutive successes or failures. One of your cases is LWL so not sure if that is considered a streak.

Spot on guys, I agree.

The answers above are correct under conditions of independent events (essentially dealing cards with replacement). I think you are asking about running out a board three times as 70% favorite. As everyone knows, different board runouts in poker are not independent events (cards are dealt without replacement).

Generally speaking, there is not enough information to give an exact answer to your question, since different "scenarios" will contain different "interdependence" for the board runouts. If you give the exact cards held by all the players and the board runout so far, then it would be fairly easy to answer your question.

The simplest case would be NLHE heads-up and all-in on the turn with no possibility of a chopped pot. If Villain has 13 outs out of the possible 44 (= 52-2-2-4) cards which could come on the river, and you decide to run it three times. In this case Hero has 70.5% equity and Villain has 29.5% equity (which is close to the assumed 70/30 split).

In this case it is easy to calculate the probability of Hero winning any number of the 3 river runouts:

- Prob of Hero winning exactly 3 runouts: C(31,3)*C(13,0)/C(44,3) = 33.9%

- Prob of Hero winning exactly 2 runouts: C(31,2)*C(13,1)/C(44,3) = 45.6%

- Prob of Hero winning exactly 1 runouts: C(31,1)*C(13,2)/C(44,3) = 18.3%

- Prob of Hero winning exactly 0 runouts: C(31,0)*C(13,3)/C(44,3) = 2.2%

Of course, other cases (all-in preflop or on the flop, multiway, possible chops, etc.) are not so "clean" but the same principles would apply.

ty vm guys for your hard work,