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Snowie's river sizing Snowie's river sizing

12-09-2017 , 04:37 PM
Hi, Snowie advises in simillar situations 0.25% of pot. Why? Do you use somebody the bet sizing? thanks

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $41.52 (166.1 bb)
UTG: $37.59 (150.4 bb)
MP: $23.35 (93.4 bb)
CO: $55.73 (222.9 bb)
BTN: $25.00 (100.0bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with X-X
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.55, SB folds, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN calls $1.70

Flop: ($4.60) 4 Q T (2 players)
Hero $2.70, BTN calls $2.70

Turn: ($10.00) 6] (2 players)
Hero $5.70, BTN calls $5.70

River: ($21.40) 4-A-7 (2 players)
Hero ??
Snowie's river sizing Quote
12-09-2017 , 05:42 PM
Ignore snowie river advice
Snowie's river sizing Quote
12-10-2017 , 05:09 AM
why?
Snowie's river sizing Quote
12-10-2017 , 05:09 PM
it is not uncommonthat it is bad/not good/doesn't make any sense
Snowie's river sizing Quote
12-10-2017 , 05:21 PM
When the river is the 4, BTN's range contains a lot of Qx and Tx, missed draws, and very few strong hands (sets and two pairs usually get raised earlier), so BB can bet a lot of KQ+ for thin value (BTN has to call Tx and maybe even 6x). If BB goes big (i.e. shoves), BTN folds a lot of its one pair hands, so BB's value bets don't get called. When you have a lot of hands that can get thin value, a smaller bet seems appropriate.
I doubt there's much EV loss by using a different sizing regime in this spot though. You could jam at a pretty high frequency, but just go more polar. e.g. jam sets, trips, overpairs and QTs+, but check AQ/KQ, and balance with a lot more air, such that your betting frequency is fairly similar to what it would be with a quarter pot bet. It's just that with the smaller bet you have more thin value hands, and with the large bet you have more air.

I haven't investigated the A or 7 river, but I think that none of those cards are particularly good for BTN's range. They don't suddenly put many combos of nuts into it. (Compare with the Kc or 9c, which complete the draws and add a few two pair combos). BTN is pretty capped when he's just called twice. It seems that Snowie thinks - in that spot - that more EV comes from betting small to get called by the capped range. In other spots, it would jam to make it fold.

EDIT: Actually an ace on the river would put at least 4 combos of the nuts in BTN's range. If BTN also flats pre with KJo, then the ace would be a good card for its range, so I'm a bit confused by the small bet there. I suppose BB has some Ax it would triple with, possibly including AK, so maybe the "thin value" bet-size does still make sense.

Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 12-10-2017 at 05:26 PM.
Snowie's river sizing Quote
12-12-2017 , 02:07 AM
Seems pretty dumb considering you only have a 2/3 pot bet left OTR.

Ran it through PIO, which uses a jam sizing on the 4s/7s most frequently by a large margin. Only on the As, does it use 1/4 pot sizing at a reasonable frequency relative to other sizes, which is predominantly made up of the Ax hands you bluffed on earlier streets for thinner value.

Intuitively, the 4s or 7s doesn't change anything. When you bet the turn that size your already repping fairly polar. On the river I think you have a pretty clear value shove with KQ+, especially given its BB v. BTN.
Snowie's river sizing Quote
12-12-2017 , 06:36 AM
thanks for replies. Btw. K-Q is clear check on blank river (in my opinion ). Villain has all A-Q. It is cca 9 combos. weaker hands witch calls river are Q-Js, Q-9s = it is 6 combos and MAYBE A-T. Or am I wrong? thanks
Snowie's river sizing Quote

      
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