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Old 02-17-2019, 10:44 PM   #1
frisko49
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Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

Hi.

First, let me assure you that this is not one of those "Poker is rigged"/"I can't win" threads. I am playing NL10 and NL25 right with no significant win or loss.

I came across a win rate analysis, which surprised me quite a lot.
It surprised me that much that i reach our for your experience.

The author claims to have analysed 3 million hands of NL50 6-max, to extract all players with at least 1000 hands and compare their win rate.

I don't want to quote the whole article.
Here you can find the details along with the same comparison for NL200 and NL1000.

The resulting chart can be seen below:

Ignoring the rake, 26% of the players have a positive win rate, and 74% a negative.
Including the rake, 90%! of the players have a negative win rate.

So the rake seem to be a general problem at the small stakes, which makes me wonder if it's worth trying to improve my game.
I'd have to become one of the top 10% players of my stake to move up?

Does anybody have some detailed numbers for NL10 or NL25?

Last edited by frisko49; 02-17-2019 at 11:00 PM.
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Old 02-17-2019, 11:15 PM   #2
Brokenstars
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Re: Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

Seems the question posted in the title was rhetorical as you've answered it in your post.
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Old 02-18-2019, 03:19 AM   #3
Lezaleas
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Re: Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

I started with just 1 dollar that 888 gave me 9 months ago and 200000 hands later I`m in NL50. I had a wrate of 10bb/100 in NL2. So it`s perfectly doable. And yes, you do have to study to become a big winner at the lower stakes but you need to study to become a winner at any stakes anyways. NL2 was by far the easiest(my pre rake wrate has remained constant at 3bb on all the other stakes I played
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Old 02-18-2019, 03:04 PM   #4
pucmo
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Re: Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

The NLH50 sample is 12k players who played at least 1k hands. All winners could be in a group that played under 2k hands. 1.2k winners (at least break even after the rake).

15% at NLH200, 500 winners in a fishy pool of 3.5k (?) players (or relative).

NLH1k has close to half of the 300 (?) players as winners.
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Old 02-18-2019, 03:29 PM   #5
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Re: Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

Are we supposed to be surprised at this? Everyone knew how poker economy works for years.
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Old 02-18-2019, 04:17 PM   #6
Iblis
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Re: Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

Woah I'm in the top 10%.
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Old 02-18-2019, 05:44 PM   #7
100bb/100
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Re: Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

The experience of a new player entering online in 2019 vs 2009 is so different, its pretty sad to me actually. I will always hold out hope for online though: that the security teams will get their act together, or that there will be another resurgence of popularity. Thankfully live isnt going anywhere, if an apocalypse hit people would still be playing by candlelight in bunkers
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Old 02-19-2019, 09:07 PM   #8
ArtyMcFly
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Re: Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

Quote:
Originally Posted by frisko49 View Post
Does anybody have some detailed numbers for NL10 or NL25?
If you have HEM, you can go to the Opponents tab and list everyone in your database in order of total profit (you can set the filters to a particular stake level) and then scroll down until you find the losers. They usually appear about 30% of the way down the list.
I've got no volume above 10NL, but at nanostakes on Stars, where rake is a little bit less, about one third of all players in my database have managed to win at least one cent. It's been like that forever.

25NL and 50NL might be a lot tougher to crack, because the effective rake (taking into account skill levels) is not conducive to moving up.

There's also the thing that if you start at 2NL and have a 30% chance of beating each level (i.e. a 30% of beating 2NL, 30% chance of beating 5NL, 30% chance of beating 10NL...) then at the start of your career, you have less than 1% chance of getting to 50NL, let alone higher.

This is kind of why bankroll grinds (hi Doug and Charlie!) are often doomed to failure. It's really hard to stay in the top 30% at every limit with short-term variance messing up your EV, and being in the top 30% usually means you're only breaking even anyway.
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Old 02-20-2019, 09:19 AM   #9
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Re: Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly View Post
If you have HEM, you can go to the Opponents tab
I've just checked the Opponents tab for me and found out that I call CBets a bit too much, what do you think?

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Old 02-20-2019, 11:17 AM   #10
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Re: Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

That 50NL graph wouldn't include all the players who dropped out from playing from losing their bankroll before getting to 1,000 hands. So is it even worse than a 10% chance of beating 50NL starting from zero hands? whew!
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Old 02-20-2019, 03:13 PM   #11
ArtyMcFly
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Re: Small Stakes impossible to beat? - Win Rate Analysis Inside

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Originally Posted by ZKesic View Post
I've just checked the Opponents tab for me and found out that I call CBets a bit too much, what do you think?
Oh, the graphs and some of the stats on that part of the program have been broken for as long as I can remember. :/

EDIT: I really like floating.


Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 02-20-2019 at 03:19 PM.
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