Hi there !
It's my first post on the forum so please be indulgent .
I'm reading this forum since months and the amount of informations i found here is just hugh! Thanks for everything and to everyone ! This forum is very EV+ for me
I'm French so my english isn't perfect at all and i hope u'll understand me
I didn't find the forum where i can introduce myself, so if there's one tell me plz .

Anyway, i'm actually shoting NL10 6-Max CG on Pokerstars.fr and i've got a questions for you guys.
I found by reviewing my hands that i rarely use the same sizings when i overbet and i think that could help vilains to read me maybe (if i'm in value or bluff for example).

Generaly, when i overbet i make 1,3/1,5x pot in bluff or value.
Of course i sometimes change it when i am against a fish (less in bluff, more in value).
But against a descent REG i should use the same sizing no? and which?

So my question is : "How do you choose your sizing of overbet?"
Does the street you overbet impact it? (maybe a higher size at turn or river for example) ?
Is it vilain dependant ?
Help me to work my overbets and make the perfects sizings to increase my winrate

Again, i hope you'll understand what i tried to say and dont hesitate to modify my post if it's unreadable ^^.
Thanks a lot, see u soon !

Bet sizing is a complicated issue and a search of the site will show many relevant threads. I’ll consider one aspect, namely sizing when you have the absolute nuts. You can show that the EV equation reduces to the following simple equation:

EV = 1 + Bet(1-fe),

where we assume the pot = 1 so Bet is in pot size units. We define fe as the fold equity, the probability villain folds. Clearly EV is positive for any bet size and fold equity, so the applicable question is what bet size maximizes EV. If fe was a constant, then clearly EV increases with the bet size, but fe will generally be an increasing function of the bet size, with fe low for small bets and higher for large bets and maybe even dip for very large bets.

I analyzed two fe functions, one S-shaped to represent a fairly tight villain and one exponential to represent a much looser villain. Both showed EV reaches a maximum at about 1.55 -1.60 Pot. However, for the tight villain, the maximum occurs at a bet of about 0.8 Pot while for the loose villain a bet of about 1.25-1.5 Pot yields the maximum.

The point of this response is not the actual results but to show it’s possible to use some math to gain insight on the bet size issue. Then other factors not explicitly considered come into play (e.g. a check hoping to induce villain to bet). For those interested in the details, I’ve written a blog on this. PM me if you would like a Word or PDF sent to your email and specify which format.

When you overbet the turn, you usually pick a size that sets up a river shove.
When you overbet the river, it's usually a shove (unless there was no action on earlier streets).
In short, you should do some work on pot geometry. Pick a size on the turn that sets up a good sized river shove. You don't want to pick a turn size that will mean your river bet is "too small" (like one-third of pot, or something like that).

e.g. If the pot on the turn is 50bb and you have 200bb behind. You could bet 75bb (1.5x pot) and then when villain calls, the pot is 200bb and you jam 125bb.

Or, you could bet 50 into 50, and leave 150 behind for a river shove of 150 into 150.

There is not a made hand (that I can imagine) that can call the 75 into 50, and then fold to 125 into 200. There are a few draws that might call the 75, then fold if they miss river. This makes the river shove incorrect, since it only folds out missed draws, and is only called by the rest (which is by definition correct).

So, I don’t agree with the 75-125 geometry, Arty.

I was just picking some random numbers that might be appropriate in a particular spot. Clearly there are various versions of the geometry that set up a river shove. You could bet $1 on the turn and $199 into $52 on the river if you really wanted to. (Or do it the other way around, which would be even weirder: bet $199 on turn and jam the river for $1 into $448 for lolz!)

The point I failed to make is that sometimes your range does best when you go bigger on the turn, to create more fold equity there, with your river shove getting called more often, and sometimes your strat does best by going smaller on the turn, but bigger on the river, so you get value on the turn and then make villain fold. The size you use on the turn obviously depends on what you're trying to achieve, but you want to dose the bets so that you still have some +EV bluffs on both streets. Sometimes you're most polarized on the turn (so you go large there), and other times, you're more polar on the river (you keep the overbet for last).