2018-02-11 Weipuke .2/.5, 7 hands, 126bb, Lojack

ThTc
UTG open 4bb, hero raise to 14bb. CO call, BB(a maniac) call, UTG call. POT(56.5BB)
8d9d2h
BB and UTG check. Hero bet ⅓(18.5bb). Only BB called. POT(95.5BB)
5s
BB donk ½(46.5bb). Hero called.
4h
BB bet 200bb saying he has T7 the nuts.


Analysis: In flop, I wanted to extract value from weaker pairs and draw with a small bet. Here any strong draw or monster hand like set or two paris should raise. TT will call in such cases. I was surprised the maniac facing a large pot OOP didn’t try to inflate the pot with such a strong draw.

At turn the maniac donked. Facing the donk I should fold ⅓ of my hands. Normally, my personal preference is to continue with strong draws like A5s while fold marginal made hands than can’t improve, like TT. However, the number of value combos BB can represent is really small. He is basically saying he had Td7d or 66. This is the case that even villain just bluff too less, it’s still profitable to call with all my range. We can completely disregard MDF, otherwise, drawing hands should be folded before marginal made hands.

At river, BB bet more than full pot, furthur polarizing his range. According to MDF I need to fold ½ of my range. I think TT should be there. However, I blocked the nuts straight, didn’t block any flush draw and BB basically only have 4 combos(three 66 and one T7s)! This is the case in MOP’s Clairvoyance game when player Y holds nuts z of time. X need to call with all his range if f*(1-z) / z > p. f is the bluff probability when Y holds junk and p is the pot odds offered to X. Here since z is so small, f*(1-z) / zis still very large even f is small. So it’s correct to disregard MDF and call with all made hands.

What do you guys think?