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Old 09-08-2017, 01:06 PM   #1
PLAYTOLIVE
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Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

Full Ring game. You have 30bb stack. 1/2NL game. Lots of limping and calling. 4 callers in front of you. You look down and have 33 OTB. You call, SB calls and BB raises to $30 everyone folds back to you. If BB has been raising form the Blinds quite frequently is it just a matter of constructing a range and going with it if the numbers are good. Sorry I hope ive explained the question properly. Basically im just trying to figure out the best way to approach these situations. Was folding > calling? If villain would raise with JT+ and 88+ so I basically loose to half of those and im about 50/50 with the other half so this is a fold no?


thanks
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Old 09-09-2017, 09:49 PM   #2
soreass3
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

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Originally Posted by PLAYTOLIVE View Post
Full Ring game. You have 30bb stack. 1/2NL game. Lots of limping and calling. 4 callers in front of you. You look down and have 33 OTB. You call, SB calls and BB raises to $30 everyone folds back to you. If BB has been raising form the Blinds quite frequently is it just a matter of constructing a range and going with it if the numbers are good. Sorry I hope ive explained the question properly. Basically im just trying to figure out the best way to approach these situations. Was folding > calling? If villain would raise with JT+ and 88+ so I basically loose to half of those and im about 50/50 with the other half so this is a fold no?


thanks
OK, so here is my 2 cents...

I think that you've said it yourself. If you give villain JT+ and 88+, then it's a flip or you are roughly 4 - 1 to win. So you still win 20% of the time. So by shoving every time you are winning 70% of the time ( 50% + 20% ). Which is great right?

But...

That's all based on this exact range. Are you certain about villains range? What if he is a rock or just plays against hero in particular really tight?

Also, just ****ing run it through some software and you'll get exact numbers for any villains ranges.

Also, you must know that everybody else folds, including the SB ( if he limped too), who is yet to act. He could wake up with AA, KK, right?

But yeah, against this range it should work. But of course I might be completely wrong
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Old 09-09-2017, 10:18 PM   #3
statmanhal
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

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Originally Posted by soreass3 View Post
OK, so here is my 2 cents...

I think that you've said it yourself. If you give villain JT+ and 88+, then it's a flip or you are roughly 4 - 1 to win. So you still win 20% of the time. So by shoving every time you are winning 70% of the time ( 50% + 20% ). Which is great right?
This is wrong on two counts. First, the connectors consist of 64 combos compared to 42 for the pairs and you (and OP) assumed 50-50. Second, you have to use the relative frequencies to get the overall equity.

In this case, approximate equity is eq = 64/106* 0.50+ 42/106*0.20 = 0.38, consistent with Equilab.

If I did the arithmetic correctly you are getting pot odds of about 27/13 = 2.1 to 1 if SB folds. That requires a showdown equity of about 33%. With your 38% equity, a call has higher EV than a fold.

If SB calls with a top 10% range, the pot odds indicate you need about 25% equity in the multi-way hand and you have 25%, against the 2 opponents, so a close call.

Of course, future betting is likely and low pairs have poor equity realization, so I would probably fold. As for the initial call, while a mulit-way limped pot holding a pair is a common case for using implied odds, the not-insignificant chance of facing reverse implied odds with a set of 3’s would make me a bit cautious but I would likely call, being in position.
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Old 09-10-2017, 05:06 AM   #4
soreass3
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

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Originally Posted by statmanhal View Post
This is wrong on two counts. First, the connectors consist of 64 combos compared to 42 for the pairs and you (and OP) assumed 50-50. Second, you have to use the relative frequencies to get the overall equity.

In this case, approximate equity is eq = 64/106* 0.50+ 42/106*0.20 = 0.38, consistent with Equilab.

If I did the arithmetic correctly you are getting pot odds of about 27/13 = 2.1 to 1 if SB folds. That requires a showdown equity of about 33%. With your 38% equity, a call has higher EV than a fold.

If SB calls with a top 10% range, the pot odds indicate you need about 25% equity in the multi-way hand and you have 25%, against the 2 opponents, so a close call.

Of course, future betting is likely and low pairs have poor equity realization, so I would probably fold. As for the initial call, while a mulit-way limped pot holding a pair is a common case for using implied odds, the not-insignificant chance of facing reverse implied odds with a set of 3’s would make me a bit cautious but I would likely call, being in position.
Thanks for correcting me there, albeit I did say run it through some software...

However please explain why you even considering call here. OP says he's got 30BBs and villain raises to 15BBs. If I want to play this hand in this spot a shove is my only play. Calling with half of my stack and missing a flop 9/10 times or whatever in position or not is gross Imo. Push or fold...
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Old 09-10-2017, 07:22 AM   #5
Kelvis
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

Villain basically shoved and isn't folding a single hand he raised with. The odds you're getting are 36/29 so you need a little under 45% equity to ship it.

UTG 55.80% 55.44% 0.36% 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
UTG+1 44.20% 43.83% 0.36% 33

33 has about 44% so it's slightly losing on its own and very unprofitable when adjusted for rake.

Also this range is so weird, nobody plays this way. You're saying he raises QTo but checks 66 and A9s?
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Old 09-10-2017, 11:48 AM   #6
statmanhal
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
The odds you're getting are 36/29 so you need a little under 45% equity to ship it.

UTG 55.80% 55.44% 0.36% 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo
UTG+1 44.20% 43.83% 0.36% 33
Hmmm. I interpreted JT+ as JTs, QJs, KQs, AKs, JTo, QJo, KQo, AKo, which is consistent with Equilab. Also, we differ on the pot odds.

Quote:
please explain why you even considering call here.
My response was to answer OP’s question about calling or folding. Yes, raising is certainly an option
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Old 09-10-2017, 11:56 AM   #7
Kelvis
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

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Originally Posted by statmanhal View Post
Hmmm. I interpreted JT+ as JTs, QJs, KQs, AKs, JTo, QJo, KQo, AKo, which is consistent with Equilab. Also, we differ on the pot odds.



My response was to answer OP’s question about calling or folding. Yes, raising is certainly an option
So then he checks with AQs but raises JTo?

In any case the range makes no sense.

Pot odds are 6 players who have put in 1bb plus 30bb that BB put in, needing to call 29 more. 36:29.

Last edited by Kelvis; 09-10-2017 at 12:07 PM.
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Old Yesterday, 08:40 AM   #8
PLAYTOLIVE
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

Hi Guys,

Thanks for the replies. Lets assume that the SB folds to the BB raise regardless of what action hero take's OTB. So there is 5 callers including myself which is 10 + the sb 1 + the BB 2 = $13 before the BB raise to $30 ($28 more) so 13 + 28 = $41 and its $28 to me so roughly 1.4 - 1 on my call. I plugged in a range that consisted of 88+ A9ss+ KTss+ QTss+ JTss and ATo. Equilab is giving me PF equities for 33 Vs Villain's Range as 43% vs 57%. Is this not a clear fold? I think the initial call by hero wasn't a good one knowing villain in the BB has been getting a little frisky but Im sure theres more math to prove this? Im also thinking that Folding > Raising AI > Calling BB's raise. If the pot was say $40 and it was $20 for me to call thats would be 2:1 making it a easier call right? Then there is the question of the math for shoving vs calling. Where Can I find all of these formulas LOL.....
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Old Yesterday, 12:02 PM   #9
statmanhal
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

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Originally Posted by PLAYTOLIVE View Post
Hi Guys,

I plugged in a range that consisted of 88+ A9ss+ KTss+ QTss+ JTss and ATo. Equilab is giving me PF equities for 33 Vs Villain's Range as 43% vs 57%......
I checked 33 against your new wider villain’s range and got 36.5%, which is less than the 42% required (1/Pot Odds+1). I assumed ATss+ is what Equilab denotes as ATs+.

????
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Old Yesterday, 01:54 PM   #10
Kelvis
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

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Originally Posted by PLAYTOLIVE View Post
Hi Guys,

Thanks for the replies. Lets assume that the SB folds to the BB raise regardless of what action hero take's OTB. So there is 5 callers including myself which is 10 + the sb 1 + the BB 2 = $13 before the BB raise to $30 ($28 more) so 13 + 28 = $41 and its $28 to me so roughly 1.4 - 1 on my call. I plugged in a range that consisted of 88+ A9ss+ KTss+ QTss+ JTss and ATo. Equilab is giving me PF equities for 33 Vs Villain's Range as 43% vs 57%. Is this not a clear fold? I think the initial call by hero wasn't a good one knowing villain in the BB has been getting a little frisky but Im sure theres more math to prove this? Im also thinking that Folding > Raising AI > Calling BB's raise. If the pot was say $40 and it was $20 for me to call thats would be 2:1 making it a easier call right? Then there is the question of the math for shoving vs calling. Where Can I find all of these formulas LOL.....
This is useless math because you're not calling, ever. It's pointless to calculate pot odds for an option you won't take. He's effectively shoving, you need to calculate those odds. Like I pointed out those odds are 36:29 (bb) or roughly 1,24:1. You need 57/43 or 1,32:1 to call which you're not getting.
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Old Yesterday, 02:14 PM   #11
statmanhal
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

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Originally Posted by Kelvis View Post
So then he checks with AQs but raises JTo?

In any case the range makes no sense.

Pot odds are 6 players who have put in 1bb plus 30bb that BB put in, needing to call 29 more. 36:29.
OP has BB putting in $30 not 30bb in a 1/2 game
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Old Yesterday, 02:21 PM   #12
Kelvis
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

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Originally Posted by statmanhal View Post
OP has BB putting in $30 not 30bb in a 1/2 game
I am stating for the third time now that BB is effectively all in, for 30 BB. Don't take the 15bb ($30) that he happened to put in, treat this as an all in because he is never folding if you shove. "Well what happens if you want to call?"; doesn't matter because you should never call here. If he raised to $34 I would still treat it as a 30bb shove.
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Old Yesterday, 02:43 PM   #13
PLAYTOLIVE
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Re: Short Stacking w/ 33 on the button

Thanks guys. I guess when we look at our equity vs his range and compare it to the pot odds its a fold. I hope to have more hands in the future.


Cheers
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