Quote:
Originally Posted by soreass3
OK, so here is my 2 cents...
I think that you've said it yourself. If you give villain JT+ and 88+, then it's a flip or you are roughly 4 - 1 to win. So you still win 20% of the time. So by shoving every time you are winning 70% of the time ( 50% + 20% ). Which is great right?
This is wrong on two counts. First, the connectors consist of 64 combos compared to 42 for the pairs and you (and OP) assumed 50-50. Second, you have to use the relative frequencies to get the overall equity.
In this case, approximate equity is eq = 64/106* 0.50+ 42/106*0.20 = 0.38, consistent with Equilab.
If I did the arithmetic correctly you are getting pot odds of about 27/13 = 2.1 to 1 if SB folds. That requires a showdown equity of about 33%. With your 38% equity, a call has higher EV than a fold.
If SB calls with a top 10% range, the pot odds indicate you need about 25% equity in the multi-way hand and you have 25%, against the 2 opponents, so a close call.
Of course, future betting is likely and low pairs have poor equity realization, so I would probably fold. As for the initial call, while a mulit-way limped pot holding a pair is a common case for using implied odds, the not-insignificant chance of facing reverse implied odds with a set of 3’s would make me a bit cautious but I would likely call, being in position.