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Old 08-01-2020, 08:26 AM   #1
FazendeiroBH
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River Spots: MDF and Equity

I was thinking about this situation. The hand goes in a certain way so that we end up facing a 1x pot shove on the river. If I understand the theory correctly, we should defend 50% of our range for villain to be indifferent to bluffing, and our range should be built in a way that those 50% of hands have the minimum required equity of 33% against the range were fighting (rake is not a concern here). Is this correct?

Now lets assume the board ran in a way that only 10% of our hands have this minimum equity and using MDF would force us to make lots of -EV calls. I think we should overfold here, right? Can this ever happen assuming optimal players (so the MDF is more like an avg over all possible river cards, instead of a hard rule to be followed on all possible textures), or is it a consequence of poorly built ranges to begin with?

Hopefully I stated my doubt clear (english is not my main language), but if you dont understand what Im saying, feel free to ask and Ill try to rephrase it. Thank you!
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:37 AM   #2
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Re: River Spots: MDF and Equity

Btw, Im sure this situation happens often in real life low stakes games, in spots where villains cant come up with the required number of bluffs. What I really mean is if GTO would ever see a situation where some river cards would force hero to massively overfold? Or conversely, some river cards would force villain to massively underbluff? Or do GTO villains always optimally adjust value to bluff ratios 100% of the time over ANY board texture on the river?

Last edited by FazendeiroBH; 08-01-2020 at 09:42 AM.
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:54 AM   #3
Im Nacho Friend
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Re: River Spots: MDF and Equity

I'm not sure your first statement is completely correct.

Example:
pot: 100
effective stacks: 100
Board: 22333r
Hero's range: AA,QQ (12 combo's)
V's range: KK (6 combo's)

At equilibrium Hero jams all his AA and 50% of his QQ (33% bluff ratio = pot odds --> V is indifferent to calling and folding). He checks the other times he has QQ.

V calls 50% (MDF) of his KK when V jams and folds 50% of his KK. When Hero checks V always checks behind as there is no point to bet anymore.

You see that all of V's hands have enough equity to call. However he still only calls 50% otherwise V's EV will go down. And he becomes exploitable.

Not sure about your second point and I'm also interested in the answer.
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Old 08-01-2020, 10:39 AM   #4
Bob148
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Re: River Spots: MDF and Equity

Quote:
Can this ever happen assuming optimal players
if you have lots of unshowdownable busted draws, yes. however these hands need not be considered for mdf.

vs gto opponent mdf should always be satisfied on the river (not counting hands that cannot beat the opponent's most showdownable bluff) unless the nuts are on the board(such as AKQTJr board).

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...62/?highlight=

i learned a lot from this convesation I started years ago.
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Old 08-01-2020, 10:49 AM   #5
FazendeiroBH
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Re: River Spots: MDF and Equity

@Im Nacho Friend Thanks for the example sir.

@Bob148 Thanks, will definitely read the thread I was worried if GTO would ever put us in a situation where meeting MDF on the river would require a part of our bluffcatches to be -EV.
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:13 AM   #6
Bob148
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Re: River Spots: MDF and Equity

Quote:
GTO would ever put us in a situation where meeting MDF on the river would require a part of our bluffcatches to be -EV.
pure bluffcatchers (that cannot beat any value hands) are 0ev in equilibrium by definition. if calling is -ev, then you either don't have a bluffcatcher, or your opponent is deviating.

if your opponent is deviating, look for where the ev is being lost and adjust your strategy to seize the lost ev. for example a tight opponent that doesn't bluff enough on the turn will go to the river with a value heavy range. so you don't need to call 0ev bluffcatchers vs this opponent on the river and you can call more on the flop with weak draws and bluffcatchers because the price to get to showdown is reduced due to the increased turn check frequency.
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:20 AM   #7
Im Nacho Friend
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Re: River Spots: MDF and Equity

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148 View Post
if you have lots of unshowdownable busted draws, yes. however these hands need not be considered for mdf.

vs gto opponent mdf should always be satisfied on the river (not counting hands that cannot beat the opponent's most showdownable bluff) unless the nuts are on the board(such as AKQTJr board).

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...62/?highlight=

i learned a lot from this convesation I started years ago.
Also going to read this thread tonight, thanks for posting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FazendeiroBH View Post
@Im Nacho Friend Thanks for the example sir.
You're welcome, it's from the book modern poker theory by michael acevedo.
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Old 08-01-2020, 01:56 PM   #8
Lezaleas
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Re: River Spots: MDF and Equity

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148 View Post
if you have lots of unshowdownable busted draws, yes. however these hands need not be considered for mdf.

vs gto opponent mdf should always be satisfied on the river (not counting hands that cannot beat the opponent's most showdownable bluff) unless the nuts are on the board(such as AKQTJr board).

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...62/?highlight=

i learned a lot from this convesation I started years ago.
This basically answers any question about river mdf you might have
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