Quote:
Originally Posted by robert_utk
Question:
If control of the hand is always left to the player in position, then any profit for the oop player (and reason for oop to participate) lies with mistakes from the in position player.
Let's look at a marginally profitable bluffcatcher imo, on the turn: I've been playing exclusively tourneys lately so here's a tourney example:
I raise 99 for 3x in the cutoff with about 100 big blinds average between the button and the blinds. Button calls, blinds fold.
45Tr
I bet 4 big blinds, button calls.
Ko
I check, button bets 8 big blinds and I have a pretty close decision:
getting about 3:1, I need to win just under 25% of the pot back on average to call. If calling is profitable then it's likely to be profitable by a small margin, depending mostly on how often the opponent will bluff this turn, which hands he bluffs with, and also how often the opponent will give up his bluff on the river.
Let's assume that calling is just slightly profitable vs this particular opponent. That probably means we're winning back about 25-35% of the pot back on average by calling the turn for an overlay of 1-10%. Sweet. However, then these rivers fall:
8/7/6/Q/J/3/2/A/5/4/K/T/9
think about that progression from bad river to good river. Of course it's debatable, but I still needed to estimate the progression to show that when bad rivers fall, our ev for calling again with a bluffcatcher is going to vary with these different river cards. The most debatable imo are 8-J, which may be backwards but oh well.
Depending on the size of the river bet we face, this is how I'd proceed:
1/2 pot on the 5 river? I'd call. I'd fold the A river though.
3/4 pot on the K river? I'd fold, but I'd call on a T river.
full pot on the T river? close decision imo. Probably only getting back 30-35% of the pot back in the long run vs good players.
But? Don't forget about the times it checks through on the river and we win. To make calling the turn profitable, then we need to include that ev in the calculation: (river checkthrough ev) + (river calling ev) = (turn calling ev).
Notice that as (river checkthrough ev) increases because our opponent makes one of these mistakes: (missing value) or (missing bluffs), then (river calling ev) may go up when they miss value, or down when they miss bluffs. If they make both mistakes of missing value and missing bluffs, there may or may not be a canceling out effect causing the illusion of indifference, but that is short lived when you remember that (river checkthrough ev) has increased.
Notice that as (river checkthrough ev) decreases because our opponent makes one of these mistakes: (value betting too thin) or (bluffing too much) then river calling ev goes up. Thus there is no loss of value.
Or maybe fold the turn idk.