Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148
Ok let's do an example:
no limit holdem tourney with 6/8 players remaining. Two spots pay. Blinds are 25/50 with no ante yet.
relevant stacks:
me: 15k after taking out two players
everyone else: 5k
a strong player opens on the button for 150, a strong player folds the small blind, I call in the big blind. Pot = 325
flop: 567r
checks through
turn: Jo
checks through
river J
I check, button bets 150 and I have a decision. Here's my thought process:
I'm getting 475:150. 150/625 = 24% equity needed to break even on a call.
Since my opponent is a strong player, there will be a number of hands with between 20% and 30% equity because of his polarized river betting range.
If he bluffs a bit too infrequently, my equity will run closer to 20%, while if he bluffs too frequently, my equity will run closer to 30%. Depending on metagame stuffs and human error, I think most strong players will have such a bluffing frequency here between 20% and 30%. The stronger they are, the closer to 24% this bluffing frequency will be.
I think the most important hands in my opponents range are these in particular order:
1) the very bottom of his range. Since the small blind was assumed to be a strong player, I don't think the button can get very out of line preflop. So I think the bottom of the buttons range on that river is (T8o), which should be in his flop and turn checking ranges at frequency >0% but <100%. My guess is that he should bet the flop with T8o at frequency ~90%. Then the 10% of the time that he doesn't, he should bet the turn with that hand at frequency again ~90%. So that leaves 1% of the time that he gets dealt T8o, will he end up with that hand heads up in position on the river.
2) the top of his bluffing range and the bottom of his checking range. Depending on his value betting strategy, this may be as strong as QT or as weak as T9. Most players will go for the thin value vs me because I'm a showdown monkey. So let's assume that he will bluff QT and anything worse on the river because he has the number of value hands to back up such a wide bluffing range.
3) his value range. Going with the above assumptions, I think a strong value betting range on the river may include hands as weak as 86s, again because I'm a showdown monkey. Some players will be stronger when they value bet the river there, but I think that in order to fulfill the assumption that this opponent is strong, we must assume that he can value bet with 87s or anything better. The more frequently the opponent checks such strong hands on the flop and turn, the more value bets he will have in his range on this river, naturally. I don't know what's right as far as these frequencies go, but I think anywhere between 40% to 60% is good both in practice and in theory. Any less will result in a capped river betting range on too many runouts, imo. Any more will result in a loss of flop and turn value.
4) his slowplay range. Due to the nature of the board, I think it's good to slowplay here in the buttons shoes at a relatively high frequency because of the strength of my range in the big blind. If my range in the big blind is strong on this board, then slowplaying as the button here should be quite profitable and necessary to prevent me from overbetting turns and rivers. This is why I'd check many strong hands at relatively high frequency as the button here. Maybe this is wrong, but that's my understanding of the situation. Because of all that, my guess is that the buttons value range can include all strong hands at frequency leading into the river, where these hands will be bet at 100% frequency.
5) his checking range. These are all of the hands leftover from building a polarized betting range as the button. Depending on the button's value betting strategy and resulting bluffing strategy, this checking range will include hands between Q2s and A6, or hands between KQ and A5.
At game speed, this is all too much to consider of course, but I'll think about the above as much as I can with the time I'm given, that is if I find myself with a hand that I think is close. In this case that means I think that the bottom of my bluffcatchers will be Q2 through KQ. I think this group of hands may be profitable as calls on the river, but I also think that if I called with these hands 100% of the time, then the button could exploit that tendency by never bluffing. This is why I'll fold these hands even though calling may be breakeven or slightly profitable. I'll allow a slight profit for the button's bluffs to avoid exploitation.
We could come at it from the opposite angle and look at my range and decide based on the pot odds how often I should call, but due to the mixing of my frequencies on the flop and turn, my river range is a discounted mathematical mess of hands that I can't really begin to account for.
Sorry tourney's going on now I gotta go concentrate.
I Think Q2 is too low because he may bluffs some better Qhigh. You said yourself he could bluff QT. So if KQ is a break even, Q9 is logically negative and every lower Q is slightly more negative.
Then I know that's another topic, but I'm not too sure with how you assess your opponent's range. And I may be wrong. I get confused because it's a tourney with ICM considerations too bc I play cash game.
I think the 567 is bet a lot with air, especially 8x, nuts, most pairs, 9x, overcards with little showdown value. But honestly I'm not too sure because I think the board somehow is good for OOP, who has more 89, but much less overpairs.... I think most of the checking back range is want to showdown range.
So I think the J turn could be a good leading card for OOP because the only showdown hand to have a J would be AJ KJ and they even bet flop sometimes.
And when IP does not bet J turn, and the J turn would be a bad card for his range, I would deduce he unlikely has J.
Am I right to think we can deduce something from an opponent betting or checking a card that is good or bad for him ? I think this is more related to individual tendencies.
The river being a J, and you not leading at it vs a range that apparently wants to showdown, IP should think you don't have the J, so I think both ranges are capped. a smaller sizing anyways leaves most nuts out of his range and seem to target a pair & Ahigh bluff catcher.
so he would be representing a range of weak pairs & showdown value that wants to get some thin value and some give ups who reopen. I'm not sure what I'm saying.
But given the original question of : what about his showdown value. Well does he bluffs with KQ KT K9 K8 ? if yes, you have to be careful calling too weak bluff catchers . But I would not think players bluff those.