"Tell us about this system you’ve come up with." - Poker Theory

I worked on this game theory, just for kicks. I worked out a guaranteed way to win $28 an hour in Vegas, which is a decent living for a lot of people, but it doesn’t really interest me much. But I needed to see if it would work.

There are so many maniacs at the casino. A lot of people watch TV and think they have figured out poker because they’ve watched it for an hour. They don’t realize it’s 12 hours of shooting and they’ve edited it down to an hour. All you see is bluffs gone bad and maniac moves that go well – and that’s not real poker.

So I worked it out with millions of simulations on the computer and then went and did it for a seven month period, five days a week, and it came out at $28.64 an hour. Here’s how it works. You play the low blind games. I would say the best ones to play are the $2/$5 games. In a low blind game, a bunch of chips is not strength, it’s vulnerability – unless you’re one of the best players around (and if you’re one of the best players around you wouldn’t be playing the $2/$5 games!). Too many people want to look at a flop and anybody playing the $2/$5 has only a certain level of ability. That means that their big chip stack in front of them, if they stay there long enough, is gonna get sucked out from under them.

What is the only move a pro would make if he was on a short stack? He would go all-in if he had A-A, K-K, Q-Q or A-K. So I’ve simplified the game down to one move, because that is the move the best pro in the world would make.

So, you buy in for $140 – let everyone else have the big stacks. You sit there and wait for one of those four hands. If you’ve got a maniac to your left, you limp in and let him raise it and go all-in when it comes back to you. You’re going to see one of those combos on average once in about 43 or 44 hands. So, say you’ve blinded down to about $120. If no one calls you when you go all in, you’ll have probably picked up about forty dollars. So now you’re at $160. Then you’ll blind down another $20 or so (your original buy-in), before you get a shot at it again. If someone does call you the first time, and you win, you’re at about $240 and you’re $100 ahead, so you cash out and put your name back on the list, or walk across the street to another casino and do the same thing.

It’s just money management. You cash out and buy back in for $140 and do the same thing again. It’s foolproof. It’s chump bait, because if you’re down to $140 and there are all these big stacks, and there’s already $60 in the pot, someone’s going to call you with a KJ suited or whatever.

Chris “Jesus” Ferguson – who’s a good friend of mine – took a dollar and turned it into $20,000 over a five-month period using my system – just for a lark in his spare time. Isn’t that funny? They’re a little tighter online than they are in Vegas, so what you want to do is play four screens at the same time, each with sixty dollars. Doing that will actually make you more money. That comes to $37 per hour and some change.

Jim Rose, in Bluff Magazine

Thoughts?

Quote

05-13-2010 , 06:59 PM

WillieVisEOAE

journeyman

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 382

wow. that sounds like fun. Kill me

Quote

05-13-2010 , 07:03 PM

ChriSquared

adept

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 848

wtf

Quote

05-13-2010 , 07:12 PM

noiz22

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 51

ya if you fold every hand and shove every time you get "one of those hands" you'll definitely get called. I'm a fish but I know this wont work and Chris Ferguson didn't use that strategy.

Quote

05-13-2010 , 07:22 PM

WillieVisEOAE

journeyman

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 382

Quote:

Originally Posted by noiz22

ya if you fold every hand and shove every time you get "one of those hands" you'll definitely get called. I'm a fish but I know this wont work and Chris Ferguson didn't use that strategy.

at an extremely loose aggressive table, I think it could definitely work. You're getting folds and picking up dead money, and when you do get called you're certainly primed to win a big pot. The questionable part for me is: What the **** is wrong with you if this is how you want to play poker? Furthermore - how you want to live your life.

Quote

05-13-2010 , 11:01 PM

neverfoldthe1outer

adept

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,178

wouldn't this become very boring when you can't play 6+ tables?

Quote

05-13-2010 , 11:25 PM

wellju

BSOD and racetrack Ninja

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 5,247

Oh, so he came up with the novelty of short stacking and rat holing, seriously?

Quote

05-13-2010 , 11:36 PM

allen

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 307

So... like 2% vpip?

Quote

05-14-2010 , 04:49 AM

GrayRodent1

newbie

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 42

Quote:

Originally Posted by wellju

Oh, so he came up with the novelty of short stacking and rat holing, seriously?

lol, this.

Quote

05-14-2010 , 09:38 AM

#10

sheeprustler

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 3,292

how old is that article?

Quote

05-14-2010 , 12:05 PM

#11

redtrain

old hand

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 1,517

The simplist bot around could do this, why would human effort be required to make $37/hr

Quote

05-14-2010 , 07:17 PM

#12

tultfill

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,926

thoughts?

I'm feeling frustrated.

Quote

05-14-2010 , 07:34 PM

#13

RustyBrooks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 24,647

Quote:

Originally Posted by tultfill

thoughts?

I'm feeling frustrated.

Thanks for sharing?

Quote

05-15-2010 , 01:37 PM

#14

jewbinson

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 4,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by RustyBrooks

Thanks for sharing?

Spoiler:

Seriously though, What about shoving JJ or TT here?

Can't you check with a bot what the optimum shoving range is here with 28BB? Although, this does depend on the xx/yy/zz of villains at the table...thoughts?

Quote

05-15-2010 , 06:26 PM

#15

davmcg

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,541

Quote:

Originally Posted by wellju

Oh, so he came up with the novelty of short stacking and rat holing, seriously?

Oh no surely his "millions of simulations" weren't pointless?

Also seriously doubt he actually did this for seven months. The bigger rooms would surely warn him about ratholing, and anyway the Venetian for instance I'm sure has a min buyin of $200 at 2/5. So he would spend hours walking between rooms and on waiting lists.

Also he writes "That means that their big chip stack in front of them, if they stay there long enough, is gonna get sucked out from under them" - so who would be doing that then? Perhaps someone who is skillful enough to sit with a full stack?

Quote

05-16-2010 , 02:52 PM

#16

SeraphimVulture

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 645

Any fool who says he has the winning poker formula is nowhere near as foolish as those who believe him.

Quote

05-16-2010 , 08:45 PM

#17

Color Up

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 323

never read bluff magazine, and now I never plan to

Quote

05-16-2010 , 10:15 PM

#18

jedwards242000

banned

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 88

this formula is completely screwed up, what happenes when you get called with a better hand, what happens when you get sucked out on, what happens when your card dead much less his generous idea you get those hands 1 out of 43 or 44, maybe on a good day. This would never work long term the regs would pick you out in a second, and variance would kick your butt with an all or nothing strategy.

Quote

05-18-2010 , 03:40 AM

#19

jakey

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 410

Quote:

Originally Posted by Color Up

never read bluff magazine, and now I never plan to

Quote

05-18-2010 , 03:49 AM

#20

Oliver Klozoff

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,099

Cool, more short stacks, that's what the game needs.

Quote

05-18-2010 , 03:51 AM

#21

Solncev

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 249

how about learn to play? Pussy boy

Quote

05-18-2010 , 05:42 AM

#22

DreadX

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 352

Casino's don't like it when you pay only $20 in blinds on a $2/$5 table over 4.4 orbits (assume 10 handed all the time), they would want to see around $30.

Interesting to see that, for a guy who claimes to have a working system, he finds the need to tell you that live players are (all) extremely bad at poker (and thus basically saying that any system would show profit).
Futhermore it's no surprise to see that his math is incorrect in such a way that it helps to support his system.

How old is this article? +1

And playing for 7 months, 5 days a week when only playing 1 hand every 90 minutes or so? He must like the table-conversations to no end.

Quote

05-18-2010 , 10:50 AM

#23

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,990

The article appeared in Bluff Magazine in November, 2005.

Quote

05-20-2010 , 02:48 AM

#24

reedermeyer

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 581

what do u do if your big blind and people limp around to let you play? fold pre? dumb system, i hate nits

Quote

05-21-2010 , 11:53 AM

#25

LiveActionPro

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,738

LOL and the times you have QQ up against KK or get sucked out on, C"MON man!

Quote

Page 1 of 3

First

1 2 3

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1 of 3

First

1 2 3

Last