Quote:
Originally Posted by longspring
I suppose you can take each player's continuing range % (either as a call or a raise) to get an estimate.
Like if we suppose in a tight game people continue on average with these hands
22+, ATs+, A5s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 65s, AQo+ (12%)
We can calculate the probability of no callers from each position. In reality it's slightly less than 12 or whatever our estimate due to blocking effects of our hands we raise.
P(BTN steal) = .88^2 = .7744
P(CO steal) = .88^3 = .6815
P(HJ steal) = .88^4 = .5997
P(LJ steal) = .88^5 = .5277
P(MP steal) = .88^6 = .4644
P(UTG+1 steal) = .88^7 = .4087
P(UTG steal) = .88^8 = .3596
Averaged the probability we get a fold as RFI is .5451
But...sometimes we have open limps, we are not the first raiser, and people's calling ranges change accordingly, so we likely get a fold slightly less. It's also a bit simplistic to just say everyone is calling 12% of the time regardless of their position (they call less vs an UTG raise and more vs a BTN raise), but works as a quick and dirty estimate.
Sklansky may have approached the question differently or perhaps gave wider continuing ranges (maybe 15% instead of 12%).