I think that a rather large amount of people suffer from the
confirmation bias which makes it really hard, if not impossible, to understand this theory/take it seriously (notice I said
theory and not hypothesis). So I decided to take some time and setup an example situation where we are the button which has open raised, got 3bet by the big blind and have called. For this example I’m going to use the preflop range suggested by snowie for the button pfr and the 3bet call. This theory assumes a solid preflop range and we could argue about the validity of snowie’s preflop ranges but for this example I’m just going to go with it. In this example we do know the opponent’s range but I’ll show a concrete example showing that we do not need to know their range in order to make solid post flop decisions. We simply need to know our range and where we’re currently at within that range. We should be adjusting our preflop range based on the perceived style of play of the big blind. But for this example I’ll assume no prior information on the opponent.
Snowie suggests the following preflop raising range for the button:
44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A4o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
Like I said, in this example I am assuming we get 3bet by the big blind. Snowie suggests the following 3bet calling range:
QQ-44, AQs-A2s, K7s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo
For the flop I used the
random.org generator to generate 3 random cards
The flop I got was 6dQcAd
Snowie suggests that the big blind should be checking just over 70%(72.15%) of the time and betting just under 30%(27.85%). Lets assume for this example that the big blind bets.
Snowie suggests that we should be calling 44.33% or roughly 101x combos. Our 3bet calling range contains 263x combos which when you account for card removal that 101x combos seems right.
Now lets use the formula from the video to determine our continuation range(includes raises and calls). The formula is 1/(1+(bet/pot)) which in this case I followed the suggestions from snowie and assumed that the big blind bet pot on the flop. This would mean we have a continuation range of 50% of our 3bet calling range which beat a bluff or have a strong draw. After card removal we have roughly 227x combos from our 3bet calling range left. Out of those combos roughly 196x combos have a good draw or outright beat a bluff. So then this formula says that we should be continuing with 196*0.5=98 combos. Which is 3x combos off of what snowie suggests. I could be a bit off on the combos left after card removal and then could also bit a few combos off on the number of combos that have a strong draw or beat a bluff. Either way this gets us extremely close to the post flop decisions made by snowie.
I ran out of time towards the end of this post and didn't really have the time to correctly sort our range relative to the flop or to count all of the combos with 100% accuracy so I made a few educated guesses. The results are extremely close to snowie even with a few errors on my part. I will come back later and post more accurate results as well as continue for the turn and river.
Last edited by alkimia; 11-10-2018 at 03:00 PM.