Quote:
Originally Posted by ddubois
I think it's probably more accurate to say the board likely hits neither player, so Mercier can win by virtue of his betting lead when both players miss, but that's an entirely different and unrelated argument.
Am I wrong? If I'm right, what are some better examples of "this board hits my range harder" and "this board hits his range harder"?
I think you're right. It obviously depends upon exactly which ranges you assign to each player, but I think neither player has a clear range advantage on that board. Indeed, it's rare for a pre-flop caller to have an overall equity advantage on any board in a single-raised pot, if both players have "good" ranges for their positions pre-flop. (The caller never has KK+, rarely has QQ or AK).
What happens more often, however, is that one player has more "nutted" or "nut-making" combos (strong draws) on a particular board, such that their
continuance range will be a clear favourite vs a sub-optimal betting or calling range.
e.g. UTG opens 2.25bb at 100NL. His range is something like: 66+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+.
BB calls
very wide due to the pot odds and ability to close the action with something like TT-22,A9s-A6s,A3s-A2s, K2s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+, 96s+,85s+,74s+,63s+,52s+, 43s,AQo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo. (Some of those hands would be 3-bets at some frequency, but let's not quibble too much for now).
Pre-flop, UTG has a huge advantage, with a 60:40 equity share.
---- Equity Win Tie
UTG 60.17% 58.76% 1.40% { 66+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
BB 39.83% 38.43% 1.40% { TT-22, A9s-A6s, A3s-A2s, K2s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, AQo-A9o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Suppose the flop comes: 6d5d4s, so the situation looks like this:
(I've given AA to UTG and 98s to BB, just as examples as the kind of hands that are in their ranges).
Although UTG's range still has the most equity (both players have a lot of air in their ranges, but UTG has the biggest overpairs, while BB does not), BB's equity on this flop jumps up to 45% from 40% pre.
Board: 6d5d4s
---- Equity Win Tie
UTG 54.83% 52.35% 2.48% { 66+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
BB 45.17% 42.70% 2.48% { TT-22, A9s-A6s, A3s-A2s, K2s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 63s+, 52s+, 43s, AQo-A9o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Although BB's overall range has less equity, this board is "good for his range", because he's the only player with the nuts (87s) in his range, and he also has 66/55/44, 65s, 64s, 54s and a lot of pair+draws, gutshots etc. UTG has no straights, no two pairs, fewer draws and only 3 combos of sets (66).
What this means in theory - and probably also in practice - is that it becomes +EV for the BB to donkbet at a high frequency, and also to continue vs a c-bet by calling or check-raising at a higher frequency than he would on AK2 or QQ2, for example. UTG can't c-bet at a high frequency on this 654 flop - especially if he chooses a size larger than half pot - because he reps so few monsters, and
the range that continues will be a favourite against him. All the nutted combos are in BB's range, not UTG's.